Meaningful football late in the season plus playoffs is great!
It is hard to wait for this game but what can you do? I like to do other things so that I am not thinking about the game too much. I really am not smart enough to talk about the X’s and O’s with any conviction or authority. So, I watch college football in search of future Vikings and I do mock drafts which are not for everybody. What is really? Also, talking about upcoming free agency is a nice distraction as well and considering it is just two months away, it definitely is not too early. The debates can be fierce which is healthy.
I am still not sure the Vikings should move away from Sam Darnold. Whether they give him a 2 or 3 year extension or franchise tag him is a healthy debate. 14 wins thus far is nothing to dismiss. I do not believe it is a fluke because I do not see him running around making too many plays off script (ala Case Keenum). It will be a hard sell to the team if they let Darnold go and turn to JJ and Jones. It could affect free agency as well. Will other players want to come here with Jones and JJ at QB? Will the current group of in-house free agents want to return? All good questions and could be healthy debates with arguments on both sides.
I am currently in the keep Darnold camp on a 2 yr 80M deal. You can add a third year that they can get out of easily but with dead money. Any extension will have dead money. He has 5M in dead money for 2025 already. I would want JJ to be the backup.
But, if the Vikings get offered a first plus a mid round pick for JJ then I would seriously consider that move. JJ is nice and has potential but the window is open NOW. There will be other QBs in future drafts that look promising too.
Having stated my current position, I can easily rotate to tag and trade Darnold, keeping Jones and JJ. I probably will present something with this as the plan.
The interesting matchup to watch this week vs the Lions is how Flores will call the defense against Goff and company. What will he change up from that first matchup?
When the Vikings have the ball
Detroit’s defense had a quirk this season: the Lions would trot out their “base” personnel (four linemen, three linebackers, four defensive backs) at a higher rate than any other team. In a league that has been getting smaller on the defensive side, the Lions went big and stayed big whenever they could. Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez was injured in Week 10 and went to IR soon afterward. Alex Anzalone was also on injured reserve, but has been designated to return and practiced Thursday. The loss of those two has been felt for the Lions (the absence of Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill hasn’t been fun, either) when teams like to put bigger bodies on the field and throw the ball.
After the Lions suffered those linebacker injuries and lost McNeill’s early down pressure, opponents have found ways to get chunks of yardage through the air when they put bigger bodies on the field and throw the ball. Play-action concepts, especially bootlegs that move the quarterback out of the pocket, have given the Lions issues as of late. It’s a weakness that got poked at more recently by offenses as they look to affect the Lions’ off-ball defenders with fakes and misdirection.
Since Week 15, the Lions have allowed the most passing yards (373) and yards per attempt (12.4) in the NFL to play-action concepts. And this isn’t just a few chunk plays. QBs have a dropback success rate of 67.7% against the Lions on play-action concepts. Caleb Williams, Josh Allen and Brock Purdy had consistent success on a variety of different actions. That’s an easy thread to pull at for Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. While Sam Darnold has been plenty effective on straight dropbacks, play-action concepts are still a healthy part of O’Connell’s well-balanced and Shanahan/McVay-influenced play menu.
Darnold is top-five in just about any number you want to look at on play-action concepts. From simple box score statistics like yards per attempt (10.6, second), passer rating (135.1, second) and even touchdowns (16, first) to advanced metrics like dropback success rate (55.2%, fifth). The Vikings are a throw-first team, but they still use that threat of the run to provide eye candy and the heavier protection that play-action provides to chuck the ball downfield. And Darnold loved to oblige that downfield philosophy.
What can the Lions throw at the Vikings? Well, they’re still good against the run and they’re potentially getting Anzalone back. And even with the injury that knocked out cornerback Carlton Davis, the Lions don’t shy away from their preference for man coverage. Ifeatu Melifonwu’s return at safety has also created a defensive shift back to something we’ve seen Detroit more familiar using in the past. Brian Branch has moved back to the slot when the Lions are in nickel personnel (five DBs). Branch is a dynamo from the slot, especially as a blitzer. This might push the Lions into playing more nickel with the return of Anzalone allowing them to get their best 11 defenders on the field, keeping the Lions out of bad matchups in zone coverage. Especially on early downs.
On late downs, the Lions still run man coverage at a high rate. How Branch holds up as a slot defender in man coverage is huge for the Lions in this game and the playoffs.
It might not matter who is in the slot for the Lions, though. In their first matchup, Darnold went 12-for-13 for 190 yards and a TD on targets to the slot; 48% of his pass attempts went there, double his season rate at that target. The Lions have allowed the most yards and second most pass attempts to slot targets in the NFL this season. Justin Jefferson is fantastic everywhere, including the slot (12th in yards per route run and 13th in explosive receptions per route run from the slot this season).
The Lions are still going to be tough to run against. But they have to make passing plays a gash-or-be-gashed world to complement their explosive offense. The Lions blitzed Darnold often in their first game, with Darnold going 12-of-15 for 143 yards, one TD and one INT, and he took four sacks. Holding up against Jefferson, Hockenson and Jordan Addison in straight defensive looks wouldn’t be my favorite plan of attack, especially with a starting cornerback and several All-Pro-caliber defensive linemen out. Pressing Darnold, understanding that explosive plays will happen but hoping you create a few on defense, seems like the path of attack for coordinator Aaron Glenn and his Lions defense.
When the Lions have the ball
In the first clash between these two sides this season in Week 7, the Vikings, staying in character under coordinator Brian Flores, blitzed frequently. Jared Goff shredded the Vikings’ blitzes that day, finishing 14-for-15 for 159 yards and 10 first downs, and taking only one sack. Flores blitzing like he has a quota to fill is nothing notable. What is notable about those 16 blitzes in Week 7 was when they happened.
Fifteen of those 16 blitzes happened on first or second down, with the lone late-down blitz coming on third-and-2 (often labeled as short yardage, i.e. a run down, as well). That 15-to-1 early down-late-down split is tied for the seventh-most lopsided in a single game since 2016, per NextGenStats.
Goff torched those blitzes, but it is interesting that Flores didn’t blitz Goff at all on a true late passing down, the most common situation for teams to throw pressure at signal-callers.
The run game is an obvious strength of this Lions team, and they currently rank third in early down rushing success rate, with Jahmyr Gibbs a threat to take any touch to the house on top of the Lions’ deadly efficient and varied run attack. The Vikings, despite not having true needle movers in their interior defensive line, were strong against the run most of this season, but have fallen off in recent weeks with their own linebacker injuries.
Since Week 12, when linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. injured his hamstring five snaps into the game and then missed the following four weeks on injured reserve (he returned in Week 17), the Vikings rank 30th in early down rushing success rate allowed. Over the first 11 weeks, the Vikings were first in the same category. They are last in stuff rate (a run that gains zero or negative yards) since Week 12.
Offenses have gone from averaging 8.63 yards to go on third down over the first 11 weeks (longest in the NFL) to 6.9 yards over the past six weeks (19th). Pace has returned, and teams might still find it tough to get explosives running the ball against the Vikings, but they are finding more success in recent weeks when they pound away on the ground.
The distance to go on third down is also paramount for a Vikings defense that loves to play games of chicken with the opposition in obvious passing situations (although not in this first matchup). Moving off early downs and onto third down, Flores has leaned into a different change-up, especially as of late. And he’ll keep throwing it this weekend at Goff.
That change-up is the coverage labeled as “2 Man.” The scheme will put five defenders in man coverage (with inside leverage) against the opponent’s five eligible receivers and with two safeties playing in deep halves over the top. This narrows the routes available to the offense, with the heavy inside leverage from the defenders making outbreakers or bending routes the “best” (relative) answers. This coverage forces the QB into making “hero throws” like seams and deep outbreakers like Geno Smith did here against the Vikings a few weeks ago:
love a good hero throw against 2 Man pic.twitter.com/2A5aGreudG
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 26, 2024
Another good answer against 2 Man is to run the ball, including the QB as a scrambler. The Lions are more than willing to run the ball. But anyone who has watched Goff knows he’s not really looking to do damage with his legs.
This isn’t just a slight uptick in 2 Man for the Vikings in passing situations, by the way. They are currently using it at the highest rate by any NFL defense since 2018 on third-and-3+, which is as far back as NextGenStats coverage database goes. They have gone from using it 2.4% in 2023 on those situations to 14.8% in 2024, and that rate has crept to over 20% since Week 10.
Goff hasn’t faced much 2 Man this season, but he ranks 30th in dropback success rate among qualifying QBs since 2022 against the coverage. The Lions are willing to run the ball in these situations (trailing only the Eagles in designed run rate on third-and-3+ over the past two seasons). But the lack of threat of Goff as a scrambler (overall and against 2 Man, with only one scramble for 5+ yards), makes me think that Flores will continue to throw this prominent off-speed pitch even more in a huge battle.
Look for the Lions to have their way on the ground. But how Flores evolves his game plan after the Lions and Goff found answers the first time around will be key. Every blitz and passing down could wildly swing this game.
Final prediction: Vikings 34, Lions 31
This is a perfect game for Flores to showcase his abilities even more but it requires the players to do their parts.
The Vikings owe the Lions.
Minnesota Vikings News and Links
The Vikings, on the other hand, have been overlooked. Maybe it’s because we haven’t forgotten they went 13-4 in 2022, won a bunch of close games (like this year’s team) only to go one-and-done in the playoffs after dropping a home game to the Giants. Maybe it’s because we don’t trust Sam Darnold. Maybe it’s because they’ve been in Detroit’s shadow. It’s most likely a little bit of everything.
Those are all fair points. But, the pendulum is definitely swinging toward Minnesota as the Lions’ injuries pile up and the Vikings impress more and more every week. Perhaps after Sunday’s game we’ll all believe in the Vikings more than the Lions.
Vikings have a better defense
The biggest reason is the defense. This is more about the Lions. They allowed a mind-blowing 7.4 yards per play in December, the most by any team in any December in the Super Bowl era.
In case you don’t realize how insane that is. The Lions’ December ranked 1,738th of 1,738 team months in that span.
Detroit allowed 32.5 points per game last month, tied with the Colts for the most in the NFL. No team has ever allowed 30+ points per game in December and gone on to win the Super Bowl.
The Lions have continued to win, but it’s not sustainable to keep winning track meet after track meet as we approach the postseason.
They went 3-1 in December despite those atrocious defensive numbers. It was the most points per game allowed (32.5) by a team with a winning December in the Super Bowl era.
The Lions combined for a staggering 70.0 points per game scored and allowed last month, the fifth-most by any team in a calendar month in NFL history.
They might get away with winning one shootout in the playoffs, but even with this historic offense, and with Dan Campbell turning practically every drive into four-down territory, it’s unrealistic to expect to win two or three playoff games in this fashion. The margin for error on offense will be razor thin.
Detroit has allowed 30+ points three times in the last four games. Only one team has won multiple games in a single postseason while allowing 30+ points. The 2012 Super Bowl-champion Ravens when Joe Flacco went on the heater of a lifetime with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions in the playoffs.
The Vikings on the other hand have been solid on defense all year and are second in expected points added per game on defense this season (the Lions are 12th).
Brian Flores’ defense creates a lot more negative plays, tied for the NFL lead in takeaways (31) and tied for third in sacks (47). The Lions are top 10 in takeaways (24) but 24th in sacks (35) as they struggle to get pressure without Aidan Hutchinson.
The Vikings have the highest blitz rate in the NFL this year (41%) and can throw the kitchen sink at opponents, ranking second in both dropbacks sending three or fewer rushers (62) and dropbacks blitzing at least six defenders (85).
Vikings are healthier
The Lions have used 30 different defensive starters this season, tied for the most by any team in a season since 1950, excluding the 1987 strike season.
They currently have 18 players on injured reserve, including six players who were Week 1 starters on defense. Alex Anzalone (broken forearm) is close to returning, Carlton Davis (fractured jaw) could return for an NFC title game and Aidan Hutchinson (broken tibia/fibula) is aiming for the Super Bowl.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are one of the healthiest teams in the league, and championships often come down to injury luck. Minnesota has six players on injured reserve. Again, Detroit has triple that (18).
Sam Darnold is holding his own with Jared Goff
As much as health and defense play a factor, we all know it’s a quarterback league and the position has more impact on winning a championship than any other in sports.
That’s probably why the Vikings are still sixth in Super Bowl odds behind the Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Ravens and Eagles, who are much more solid at quarterback.
However, it wasn’t too long ago that a lot of people were probably wondering if the Lions could even win a Super Bowl with Goff. He certainly didn’t inspire a ton of confidence with his performance in the Super Bowl vs. the Patriots, or his play vs. pressure in last year’s NFC title game.
So, am I much more confident in Goff winning a Super Bowl than Darnold? Not really. Sure, Darnold doesn’t have playoff experience and prior to this season he was looked at as a major draft bust. But things change, and right now, he’s holding his own with Goff as both are thriving in great systems with superstar supporting casts.
The numbers reflect that. Both are top five in pass yards, yards per attempt and pass touchdowns this year.
Most seasons, we’d be talking about both as MVP front-runners. Consider that they are the ninth and 10th QBs in NFL history with 14+ wins and 35+ touchdown passes in a season. Seven of the previous eight won NFL MVP that year.
Both are red hot, too. They have a combined 38 touchdown passes and three interceptions since Week 11. Not a typo.
The main concern with Darnold is turnovers, rightfully so based on his track record. He wasn’t helping his cause earlier this year, either. He led the NFL with 13 turnovers through Week 10, including an ugly three-interception game vs. the Jaguars’ awful defense in Week 10, with all three targeting Justin Jefferson in Jacksonville territory. He’s righted the ship since though, with 18 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the last seven games.
I’m not saying turnovers won’t come back to haunt Darnold, but his performance in key areas below give me confidence ahead of his playoff debut:
He leads the NFL in completions (33), completion rate (52%) and touchdown passes (nine) on throws traveling 20+ air yards this year.
He’s averaging 9.9 yards per attempt (second in NFL behind Lamar Jackson) with 14 touchdowns and one pick vs. the blitz this year.
He’s second in the NFL in touchdown passes when pressured this year (13) behind only Joe Burrow (15), who has been phenomenal on off-schedule plays.
He’s led five game-winning drives this season and ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play when tied or trailing in the fourth quarter (22/34 passing for 381 yards, three touchdown passes and no interceptions in those spots).
His mobility and play vs. pressure might even make him better suited than Goff for the postseason, who is more of a statue.
Now, the Vikings offense with Darnold has been solid, but let me be clear, it’s still not on the Lions level. Detroit is in a different stratosphere and has one of the most efficient units in NFL history. The Lions are averaging 3.04 points per drive in 2024, fourth-best since 2000 behind the 2007 Patriots, 2018 Chiefs and 2020 Packers, who all featured MVP quarterbacks. The Vikings are 10th in points per drive (2.24) in 2024. Detroit has a much better rushing attack, even without injured David Montgomery, who could play in the postseason.
Overall, though, the Lions offensive edge doesn’t outweigh how drastically things are shifting with both defenses due to Detroit’s injuries. As I laid out above, history shows the Lions can’t win a Super Bowl with their defense right now, and I think reinforcements in the form of Anzalone, Davis and maybe Hutchinson will be too little, too late.
For the record, I think the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Eagles are more likely to win a Super Bowl than these teams.
However, between the two, I like the Vikings to win on Sunday and have a better chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Minnesota is the more well-rounded team headed into the most important part of the year and Darnold’s stock is soaring.
Vikings feel difficult schedule has them ready for key game at Detroit
The Minnesota Vikings final game of the regular season is the biggest in the NFL on Sunday as they visit Detroit looking to avenge their two point 31-29 loss on October 20th.
If they do Minnesota will not only win the NFC North division title but lock up the top seed in the NFC playoffs, meaning homefield throughout and a bye into the Divisional Round.
It’s a challenge Vikings’ veteran tailback Aaron Jones thinks the they are ready to meet thanks to being prepared by one of the league’s most difficult schedules.
“Every game has been against playoff teams so we’re in that mindset. So just continue to stay in that mindset, control the things that we can control. That’s our preparation, our execution, our communication and our play style.” Jones says.
Vikings-Lions loser likely to open playoffs on Monday night of wild card weekend
It’s really difficult to overstate the stakes of Sunday night’s game between the Vikings and Lions.
By now, you know what’s on the line. The winner takes the NFC North crown and gets the conference’s No. 1 seed, which comes with a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The loser becomes the first 14-win wild card team in NFL history and has to open the playoffs on the road (and quite possibly win three road games to reach the Super Bowl).
Let’s throw in one more element to consider: Because this game is happening on Sunday night, it seems likely that the loser will get one of the spots in the Monday night game to close out wild card weekend. That means if they win, they’ll be playing on a short week in the divisional round. Meanwhile, the winner of this showdown will have 12 or 13 days to prepare for a guaranteed home game in the divisional round.
NFL Expert Picks: Vikings Enter As Underdogs in Division Title Battle With Lions
Lions 30, Vikings 23 – John Breech, CBS Sports
I feel like this is going to come down to who plays better out of Jared Goff and Sam Darnold. That might seem obvious, but all you have to do is look at each’s team passing defense to realize why the QB battle will probably decide the game. The Lions are surrendering 250.4 yards per game through the air, which is the second-worst number in the NFL. But Vikings fans, don’t laugh, because your team isn’t much better: The Vikings have given up an average of 243.6 yards per game, which is the fifth-worst in the NFL.
So you have the two of the worst passing defenses, and they’ll be going up against two quarterbacks who both rank in the top-five for passing yards per game this year (Goff ranks second overall with 274.9 yards per game while Darnold ranks fifth overall with 259.6 yards per game).
These two quarterbacks went a combined 7-17-1 in 2020, and somehow, just four years later, they’re going to be duking it out for the top seed in the NFC.
Darnold has never played in a game of this magnitude, so I’m going to take they guy who’s won multiple big games in his career, and that’s Goff.
…
Lions 34, Vikings 33 – Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Lions 37, Vikings 34 – Staff, Bleacher Report
Lions 31, Vikings 27 – Bill Bender, Sporting News
Lions 34, Vikings 31 – Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News
3 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The MMQB
3 of 8 experts (3 of 11 total had not submitted) pick the Vikings, ESPN
3 of 8 experts pick the Vikings, Bleacher Report
1 of 6 experts pick the Vikings, The Athletic
NFL News: Kevin O’Connell makes a startling confession about the Vikings and the Super Bowl
While many consider the Vikings to be one of the season’s biggest surprises, head coach Kevin O’Connell has a different perspective. He reveals that, from the very beginning of the season, he noticed that his team had the talent and potential to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
“I think it might have been during the ramp-up period the first couple days. I remember standing with Harrison Smith, you know it was about his hundredth training camp, so he’s standing off to the side and him and I are kind of watching maybe a special teams period going on and I remember saying to him, ‘I think we got a chance to be pretty good, what do you think?’ and he kind of looked at me and said, ‘You know I totally agree. I think we’ve got everything we need right here and let’s see how training camp goes…My message from day one was for us to truly reach our potential regardless of — in this day and age it’s impossible to not hear, ‘Hey, win projections and expectations and this team and that team,” stated Kevin O’Connell on PFT Live.
Kevin O’Connell’s early confidence in his team was not without its challenges. Despite recognizing their talent, he knew success would not come easily. His approach involved setting high expectations and focusing on consistent, hard work. Under his guidance, the Vikings ignored external noise and kept their sights on a singular goal: winning the Super Bowl.
The season has not been without its setbacks. Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury early in the campaign, forcing the team to sign Sam Darnold. To everyone’s surprise, Darnold exceeded expectations, becoming a pivotal part of the Vikings’ success. However, with his contract set to expire in 2025, retaining him for another season has become a key priority for the front office.
Injuries also sidelined key players like cornerback Mekhi Blackmon and offensive lineman Christian Darrisaw, both lost for the season with severe knee injuries. Despite these challenges, O’Connell and his staff have rallied the team, overcoming adversity and creating a roster capable of competing for the championship. As the Vikings continue their remarkable run, their Super Bowl dream feels closer than ever. With a talented and resilient squad led by a determined coaching staff, Minnesota have proven that they are not just a surprise story, they are a team built to win it all.
QB-needy Giants should pursue J.J. McCarthy trade with Vikings
The Vikings shouldn’t make J.J. McCarthy available. Sam Darnold has been nothing short of magnificent this season, but barring a trip to the Super Bowl, they don’t have to pick one or the other yet. They should franchise tag Darnold (which isn’t an issue since the team has $77 million in cap space), make him show it for one more year, and then decide.
An anomaly: Have your cake and eat it, too.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will keep his phone lines up, though – as all GMs do. And depending on what happens in Sunday’s battle with the Eagles’ backups, the Giants should make a call. New York needs a quarterback next season, and there’s no reason not to pursue McCarthy.
The Giants currently hold the No. 4 pick. A win over the Eagles could drop them as low as No. 8.
You’re not getting Sanders at No. 8. You can’t trade up for him, either, if quarterback-needy teams pick No. 1 or 2 (Titans, Browns, Jaguars). In that case, don’t force a Jalen Milroe (Alabama) or Quinn Ewers (Texas) selection — offer up No. 8 to Minnesota and get McCarthy.
SNY touched base with multiple talent evaluators across the NFL. McCarthy, if in this class, would have the highest grade of any quarterback, according to three.
“He wasn’t the same caliber as Caleb Williams, (Jayden) Daniels, (Drake) Maye.” one said. “System and environment factor more with (McCarthy). This year, though? Yes. He’d be the top quarterback. No doubt.”
McCarthy was among the more polarizing players in last year’s draft. His college statistics during his final season were lackluster – 2,991 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, four interceptions. That was less an indictment on McCarthy, though, and more the system he played in. Michigan ran the ball, and then ran it some more.
They didn’t need McCarthy to win them games, so they didn’t ask him to. That didn’t mean he couldn’t, though. His mental acumen, pro-style experience, and physical gifts were on display at his pro day. His leadership has been praised by all those who coached or played with him.
McCarthy played one preseason game this year. He went 11-of-17 for 188 yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception. He suffered a season-ending knee injury, but nothing that jeopardizes his long-term future with the team.
Again: Minnesota shouldn’t trade McCarthy. The right move is the obvious move: Tag Darnold, see it again, then decide your best course of action.
This isn’t like when the Giants faced their own tag-or-extend dilemma with Daniel Jones. They didn’t have the near-$80 million in cap space the Vikings do. If they tagged Jones, they couldn’t do anything else in free agency. Minnesota can tag and still round out the roster with free agent dollars.
That shouldn’t stop the Giants from calling, though. They need a quarterback.
Do what you can to get the best one.
Fantasy football and reality align. Vikings should sign Sam Darnold, trade J.J. McCarthy
Sam Darnold was the QB8 in fantasy football 2024, leading the Vikings to 14 wins heading into their NFC North Division and No. 1 seed showdown on Sunday night against the Detroit Lions.
Despite Darnold’s success in 2024, many Vikings fans and experts worship at the altar of a rookie QB contract, even though, according to Amaeya Deshpande of Bruin Sports Analytics, its alleged value doesn’t withstand scrutiny.
Says Deshpande, “…the notion that teams have a greater likelihood to succeed with a quarterback on a rookie contract is false. The data suggests that there is close to an equal chance of success at each of these levels between rookie deal and non-rookie deal quarterbacks.”
The bust risk for McCarthy is very real, given he was just the No. 10 overall pick. I’m not pretending I know anything more about eventual QB success than NFL scouts and general managers. I just know history says the odds of hitting with this level of a pick (6-10 range) is about 40 percent. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Ryan Tannehill have been hits to various degrees this century. Jake Locker, Byron Leftwich, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Leinart and Josh Rosen were busts. And we must include Daniel Jones (now, ironically, a Viking) in the bust bucket, too.
Keeping McCarthy is seen as a cap bonanza, but nobody cares about the cost if a quarterback is good; if he’s bad, nobody cares about the savings.
But McCarthy backers will suggest using the franchise tag on Darnold and then trading him. Okay, but for what? Remember, a team has to pay him a top-of-the-market contract. You have to take offers. Teams in the top 10 will probably want to scout and interview the 2025 QBs to assess their options fully. The tag will cost the Vikings $40 million in cap room until he’s traded, hamstringing them during free agency. Then the team that receives Darnold would have to negotiate a contract, and he’d have to pass a physical.
Insider says it is ‘hard to see’ Cam Bynum back with Vikings in 2025
Could Cam Bynum have played his final game as a Viking at U.S. Bank Stadium? With free agency pending for the 26-year-old safety, and an unclear path in the playoffs, it’s possible Bynum suited up for the last time as part of the home team in Minnesota.
“Of all their premier free agents, the one that continues for me, like it’s hard to see him back, is Cam Bynum,” KSTP’s Darren Wolfson said Thursday on the Mackey & Judd Show when discussing the futures of Vikings free agents.
With still one game left to play in the regular season, Bynum has set or equaled career marks for interceptions (3) and fumbles recovered (2) in a season. He’s also third on the team with 89 tackles this season, second most of his career.
With an already deep safety room, the Vikings could decide to let Bynum walk in free agency.
“Now, hey, there were some talks before training camp, so clearly mutual interest. But I just think Cam is good enough to get paid enough. I don’t have enough proof that this front office is willing to invest heavy money in the safety position,” Wolfson said.
Vikings predicted to sign $7.8 million starter away from Raiders to replace Harrison Smith
Matt Holder of Bleacher Report predicts the team will add at least one safety to the mix this offseason, and he sees rising Las Vegas Raiders starter Tre’von Moehrig as a potential target. Here was his take on the potential fit:
Harrison Smith and Camryn Bynum are impending free agents, meaning Minnesota will likely be looking to add at least one safety this offseason. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores values versatile defensive backs as he’s a creative play-caller who likes to rotate safeties and bring pressure from all levels of the defense. Moehrig could be a good fit with Flores since the fourth-year pro built a strong track record as a free safety during his first three years in the league and has been playing in the box more this fall. That’s unlocked the TCU product as he’s logged career highs in passes defended (10), total tackles (92) and tackles for loss (5) while ranking third among safeties with 12 pressures, per Pro Football Focus.
The Vikings haven’t called this a swan song season for Smith, but with the team on the verge of a deep playoff run, and Smith about to turn 36 in February, it’s fair to wonder if this will be the ironman safety’s final kick at the can.
Aaron Jones hopes to re-sign in Minnesota, finish career with Vikings
“I hope to be here until the end of my career,” Jones said this week, via ESPN. “Honestly, this is an excellent place.”
“Last year, I missed a handful of games and played through injury as well,” he said. “With that, I guess the narrative got out that ‘he’s injury-prone and constantly injured.’ … [This season], I’m letting guys know that whatever I go through throughout the week, or in that game, I’m going to be ready the following Sunday.”
Joshua Metellus Named 2024 Korey Stringer Media Good Guy
Joshua Metellus isn’t often surprised.
He’s known for his instincts on the football field, but the Vikings safety was caught off-guard Friday afternoon by a unique announcement. Following Head Coach Kevin O’Connell’s post-practice press conference, Metellus approached the podium planning to ask O’Connell a question for his “Tell Us With Metellus” social media series.
Instead, O’Connell flipped the tables and invited ESPN’s Kevin Seifert to join Metellus and present him with the Korey Stringer Media Good Guy Award.
“I’m old enough to have covered Korey, and he would think it’s hysterical that there was an award named after him for media, because he was very much a background guy,” Seifert explained. “He did not like to do a lot of interviews, but he was one of the most prominent players on the team, one of the best players on the team, and sometimes we had to talk to him. And when we did, he was always three things: he was thoughtful, he was honest and he was respectful of the job that we had to do.
“So when he passed away, we decided to name an award after him for that and reward it to a player each year who demonstrates those attributes toward us. And Josh, you very much do, and we appreciate that,” Seifert continued. “It’s not just a one-off, because you are also one of the most prominent players on this team. And when you act a certain way toward the media and treat the media a certain way, it kind of rubs off on the rest of the locker room. So I think because of you and a couple other guys, this has been a great locker room to cover this year. It’s been honest, it’s been thoughtful, and everybody’s been respectful of the job we’ve done.
“We appreciate that,” Seifert added. “So on behalf of the Twin Cities chapter of the Pro Football Writers of America, we want to award the 2024 Korey Stringer Good Guy Award to Josh Metellus.”
He reciprocated the appreciation from Twin Cities media members, specifically noted the team’s change in media schedule this season and reporters’ flexibility in adapting to a new time.
“Thank you for being patient with us. We’re trying to be patient with you, too, even though we’ve got a lot going on,” Metellus laughed. “But I take pride in this. Any award is a good award, in my opinion, so I appreciate you.”
He doesn’t take for granted the honor that carries on the legacy of Stringer, a well-respected and oft-remembered Vikings Legend who tragically passed away in 2001. And though they played different sides of the ball, Metellus and Stringer demonstrated those similar qualities away from the gridiron.
“Thank you for being on the ride with us,” Metellus told media members. “It’s been a long a journey, and we ain’t done yet. But I appreciate you all for being so respectful, as well.”
Vikings DC Named Patriots Best Jerod Mayo Replacement
With the final game of the 2024 NFL season coming up on Sunday for the New England Patriots, there are a lot of questions swirling around the franchise.
First and foremost, the question about the future of head coach Jerod Mayo needs to be answered.
All season long, Mayo has been rumored as a potential candidate to be fired after just one season. The team has struggled under his leadership and he has not done himself any favors when he has talked to the press.
It seems likely that the Patriots will bring him back for another season in 2025, but there is still a chance that they could replace him.
With that being said, Pro Football Network has offered a very intriguing potential replacement candidate.
They believe that Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores would be the best fit for New England. He has been involved with the Patriots before and returning to the franchise would be a homecoming for him.
Has Sam Darnold Usurped J.J. McCarthy as Vikings’ Franchise Quarterback?
When the Minnesota Vikings gave Sam Darnold a one-year $10-million prove-it deal last offseason, most viewed it as a short-term bridge quarterback signing that would facilitate J.J. McCarthy’s transition to the NFL.
Darnold would give the Vikings a year of volatile but mediocre quarterback play and hopefully be rewarded with another mid-level contract the following year while McCarthy developed and prepared to take over the offense in 2025.
Instead, Darnold is in the midst of a breakout season that has given the Vikings an extraordinary return on their investment and a quarterback controversy they weren’t expecting.
To thoroughly evaluate how Minnesota should handle this situation, we need to answer five questions:
How much would Sam Darnold cost?
The closest comparisons, in my opinion, are Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith. All three were first-round picks that failed, to varying degrees, with the team that drafted them. Darnold will be five years younger than Tannehill was when he signed his extension, but like Tannehill, Darnold is leading a high-powered offense on a successful team with an excellent supporting cast.
Considering these factors, a 4-year deal worth 17 percent of the cap is realistic. Assuming a $275 million salary cap for 2025, this would come out to about $47 million per year. While the small sample size will likely limit his contract value, there’s no reason to believe a quarterback or his agent would be willing to take a team-friendly deal.
Is Sam Darnold’s performance real and sustainable?
It’s dangerous to automatically buy into quarterbacks who put up impressive numbers in perfect situations. Quarterback performance is much deeper than the box score, and raw production is not always indicative of quality of play or future success.
However, what Darnold is doing this year is different from Brock Purdy, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Tua Tagovailoa’s highly efficient seasons in similarly pristine offensive infrastructures.
This isn’t a situation where a game manager is on autopilot, coasting off talented playmakers and schemed-up production. Darnold is carrying plenty of the load and making high-difficulty throws that many starting quarterbacks are incapable of executing consistently.
His role in Minnesota’s offense would not be easy to replace, and swapping him with a lesser or inexperienced quarterback is a significant gamble.
How much of his success is a result of Minnesota’s offensive infrastructure?
Football is a team sport, so the entire unit deserves some credit for Minnesota’s offensive success.
Darnold would not be as productive throwing to bottom-tier receivers or throwing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. But as long as he isn’t being asked to uplift the most dysfunctional franchise in professional sports single-handedly, he’s a quality starter who can be the driving force behind an explosive and efficient offense.
How much would the results differ with McCarthy at quarterback?
The answer to this question is 50 percent dependent on your opinion of McCarthy. I was fairly close to consensus on McCarthy and graded him as the fifth-best quarterback in the 2024 Draft class. I view him as a developmental but talented player with above-average physical traits who has a chance to become a top-15 quarterback.
From everything I can gather externally, he seems to have outstanding leadership qualities, but I don’t view his natural talent as particularly special by NFL quarterback standards. I don’t think he’s as physically gifted as Darnold.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is obviously higher on McCarthy than I am; at least, he was last April, and his opinion is the one that actually matters. Still, I have a hard time imagining him turning over the offense to a developmental rookie coming off meniscus surgery when he has a productive veteran alternative with the support of the locker room and plenty of untapped potential.
Darnold has made at least 20 throws this season that are more impressive than anything on McCarthy’s college tape. That’s understandable, considering Darnold is a seven-year NFL veteran, but the Vikings wouldn’t be getting a fully developed McCarthy next year if they chose him as their starter.
Darnold’s performance in 2024 is McCarthy’s 90th percentile outcome, so replacing Darnold would be an “it could be anything, it could even be a boat” decision.
Is the difference between Darnold and McCarthy worth paying for?
Assuming Darnold returns as Minnesota’s starter in 2025, it can either fully commit or keep their options open.
The aggressive strategy would be signing Darnold to a long-term deal and trading McCarthy for draft capital. If Darnold was guaranteed to maintain this level of play, this is the best way to maximize value since McCarthy is a depreciating asset.
However, this would leave them with no backup plan at quarterback, and they’d eventually be forced to part ways with other valuable contributors. Re-signing draft picks and spending in free agency is a lot more difficult when you’re paying your quarterback 17 percent of the cap.
The conservative approach, tagging Darnold and stashing McCarthy, is much smarter and keeps all of the Vikings’ options open for the future.
The franchise tag would not be a long-term limiting factor in roster construction and would give Darnold another year to prove himself as a top-12 quarterback worthy of a multi-year investment. If he regresses, they would still have McCarthy, fully healthy with another year of development under his belt, ready to take over as the starter.
Let the drooling begin!
https://www.bigblueview.com/2025/1/4/24332841/big-blue-view-mailbag-the-j-j-mccarthy-edition
https://www.bigblueview.com/2025/1/1/24333648/could-the-giants-trade-for-j-j-mccarthy
https://stillcurtain.com/steelers-should-sell-farm-if-this-quarterback-trade-rumor-is-true-01jgp6eqge45
https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/seahawks-news/should-seahawks-trade-for-qb-j-j-mccarthy
Who thinks the New York Jets should trade for J.J. McCarthy?
Who thinks this idea is a good one?
Is it the media member and ESPN NFL analyst who fans often watch on TV? Or, could it be Woody Johnson‘s coaching and general manager search advisor/independent third-party firm hired to pave the way this offseason—for the franchise’s most critical decision of its existence?
Although NFL analyst and organizational search headhunter are two starkly contrasting roles, only one man is involved: Mike Tannenbaum, a man who believes the New York Jets should trade for Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy this offseason.
“In 2009, Rex Ryan came in, he inherited a former Green Bay Packers legend, and he moved on from Brett Favre,” Tannenbaum said during part of a “New Year’s Resolutions” segment on ESPN’s “Get Up” with Mike Greenberg. ” … In 2025, [the Jets should] move on from Aaron Rodgers; go get J.J. McCarthy. He would have been the first player picked in this year’s draft, and with six of the top 10 teams needing a quarterback, [the Jets can] get [their] quarterback of the future, J.J. McCarthy.”
Tannenbaum, of course, served as the Jets general manager from 2006-2012, but he was first introduced to the organization under the Bill Parcells regime in the late 1990s. Simultaneously, the man so many affectionately call Mikey T is also the Jets’ current headman in their head coach and general manager search, officially per his website, The 33rd Team.
Though he’s not a Jets employee, Tannenbaum assumed the lead role, with former Vikings GM Rick Spielman in tow, for the Jets’ third-party head coach and general manager search. At this point, Jets fans could not care less who or how their team finds the right leader—so long as it does happen.
Nonetheless, we sink into a sticky pile of goo when analyzing the Jets-33rd Team agreement.
When this man—Jets former GM, current ESPN employee in the media space, current owner of The 33rd Team, and current lead man for the Jets organizational GM/HC search—makes public suggestions like this, from which Tannenbaum is the opinion actually coming?
As an advisor/headhunter/candidate-gatherer, does his opinion on this matter in Woody Johnson’s eyes? Or is he simply relegated to offering up head coach and general manager candidates to the Jets?
Here’s my initial reaction (while also reserving plenty of room to react to the “official” word that’s soon to come) … Why in the world would the New York #Jets ever allow even the slightest opening for third-party motive to get in the way of the objective? In other words, this… https://t.co/mMEHpC77ia
— Robby Sabo (@RobbySabo) November 25, 2024
The Jets move on from Aaron Rodgers and the Vikings commit to Sam Darnold
Should New York and Minnesota make this move to send JJ McCarthy to the Big Apple? #JetUp | #SKOL pic.twitter.com/PxJNTLA9Vf
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) January 2, 2025
Yore Mock
Trade Recap
Trade Partner: Jets
Sent: JJ McCarthy
Received: Pick: 7 Rnd: 1; Pick: 110 Rnd: 4; 2026 Rnd: 2; RB Braelon Allen
Trade Partner: Cardinals
Sent: Pick 30
Received:Pick: 45 Rnd: 2; Pick: 76 Rnd: 3; Pick: 115 Rnd: 4
Trade Partner: 49ers
Sent: Pick: 165 Rnd 5
Received: Pick: 186 Rnd: 6; Pick: 221 Rnd: 7
…
Pick: 10 Rnd: 1 Mason Graham DT Michigan 6’3” 320
Pick: 45 Rnd: 2 Nick Emmanwori S South Carolina 6’3” 320
Pick: 76 Rnd: 3 Armand Membou OT Missouri 6’3” 314
Pick: 97 Rnd: 3 Cam Skattebo RB Arizona State 5’11” 215
Pick: 110 Rnd: 4 Jack Bech WR TCU 6’2” 215
Pick: 115 Rnd: 4 Mello Dotson CB Kansas 6’1” 190
Pick: 140 Rnd: 5 Jonah Monheim C USC 6’5” 310
Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Pick: 186 Rnd: 6 CJ West DT Indiana 6’2” 317
Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Pick: 221 Rnd: 7 Cody Lindenberg LB Minnesota 6’3’ 240
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images
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