Poor Plan and Play Adds More Question Marks to the Offseason
The Minnesota Vikings played their two worst games of the season to first lose out on the division title and first seed in the playoffs and then go one-and-done in a quick end to their postseason.
It was as disappointing an end to their season as their 14-3 record was a positive surprise. But losing convincingly in both games to teams that were fairly evenly matched points to poor coaching and preparation leading to blowout losses.
Both the Lions and Rams were able to step up their play with effective game plans, while the Vikings were often left reeling and wondering what happened.
Against the Rams in the playoffs, the game went from bad to worse early and unlike every other game the Vikings have played this season, they never really had a chance to win it and it was never close.
That’s a stunning way to end a season in which the Vikings had the highest in-game win probability in the league.
And that leads to questions about coaching, Sam Darnold, and much else as the Vikings enter the off-season with a thud.
Outcoached in Last Two Losses
When two evenly matched teams play twice, the first game being a closer contest and the second being a blowout loss, the losing team was clearly outcoached. Such was the case in the Vikings’ losses to Detroit and the Rams the last two weeks. In both cases, adjustments were made- particularly on defense- that allowed both teams to largely shut down the Vikings’ passing game while Kevin O’Connell and Company had little in the way of their own game planning and adjustments to counter them and present new challenges.
Both Detroit and LA brought pressure on Sam Darnold through blitzes and stunts, while playing man coverage behind them. That made Darnold hold the ball longer and allowed the pressure to get home. Darnold was pressured early and often, getting him off his spot frequently and forcing errant throws and generating double digit sacks. No quarterback can operate effectively when pressured upwards of 50% of dropbacks, which Darnold was. Darnold’s EPA per dropback against the Lions was -0.58. Against the Rams it was -0.55. Those are both off-the-charts bad numbers.
It wasn’t surprising that the Rams went with what worked for Detroit the previous week, but what was surprising is that Kevin O’Connell had no answer for it. Common answers for pressure defensively are to hold a tight-end or back in to block, a quick passing game, and/or an effective run game. But O’Connell largely eschewed the two former options (apart from one drive) and did little to establish the latter.
It’s easy to see Sam Darnold’s struggles in the last two games and blame him for cracking under pressure, but the truth is the game plan and lack of adjustments left him in a poor position for success. When pressured at the same rate, even Patrick Mahomes has bad games, as was the case in the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay.
Defensively, the Vikings blitzed on 69% of dropbacks, but pressured Matthew Stafford only on only 34.5% of his dropbacks. By contrast, the Rams pressured Darnold on 77% of their blitzes and on 52% of his dropbacks. Overall, Matthew Stafford finished with a 117.7 passer rating, while Darnold finished with a 77.6 passer rating. Stafford was sacked twice for a loss of seven yards, while Darnold was sacked nine times for a loss of 82 yards.
Clearly Darnold is responsible for some of the sacks and lost yards by not throwing the ball away to avoid the sack, but in some cases he was trying to scramble to extend the play and was caught, and in others he was in a poor position with the pocket closing in tight around him. But in any case, I’m not sure throwing the ball away more often would have done much to change the outcome of the game, which was decided early on. The Rams’ win probability at halftime was 92%.
But the bigger question is where were the counters to the Rams’ pressure? Only one drive did O’Connell utilize the short passing game- and that was effective.
The Rams had two tight ends on the field for 62% of their snaps to help defend pressure and run block, while the Vikings had two tight ends or a tight end a fullback (C.J. Ham) on the field just 28% of snaps. The Vikings have two top-ten graded tight ends in T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver according to PFF. Twenty-one of the thirty-two pressures allowed against the Rams came against Vikings’ tackles. Perhaps having a tight-end in to help block would’ve reduced those pressures considerably. Josh Oliver is the Vikings’ best skill position blocker, but he was on the field for just 26% of offensive snaps, not one of them as a pass blocker. In fact, none of the Vikings three tight ends used against the Rams had even one snap where they were held in as a pass blocker. C.J. Ham had one. Aaron Jones and Cam Akers had a combined five.
Overall, the Vikings held in a tight end or back to pass block on just five of Darnold’s 40 dropbacks according to PFF. The Rams did the same on twenty of Stafford’s 27 dropbacks.
Xs and Os, Jimmys and Joes
The Rams’ offensive line wasn’t any better than the Vikings’ on the season. But somehow the Rams were better able to deal with blitz pressure than the Vikings. The Rams’ offensive weapons are not better than the Vikings’ either- very comparable. And yet they were able to put up a lot more points than the Vikings to effectively ice the game early.
Defensively, the Rams defense was ranked 25th in DVOA during the regular season while the Vikings ranked 2nd. But somehow the Rams dismantled the Vikings offense while the Vikings were unable to stop the Rams offense early on when the outcome was still in doubt.
All this points to being outcoached on both sides of the ball. Plain and simple. Everyone knows Brian Flores’ game plan- blitz on early downs not as often on third down- and he hasn’t deviated from it much the last half of the season. Similarly, Kevin O’Connell has been focused on using the deep passing game to propel the Vikings’ offense. He uses the run game just enough to keep defenses honest while the short passing game has been more of an ancillary part of O’Connell’s offense, despite having all the weapons necessary to make it effective when needed or called upon.
Certainly the Vikings could use some better offensive linemen. But they could also use a better game plan and adjustments to manage pressure and put Sam Darnold in a better position to succeed. Kevin O’Connell didn’t do that against the Lions or the Rams and it cost the Vikings dearly in both games.
Offseason Questions
Clearly the disastrous end to the Vikings season has generated more questions about the offseason for the Vikings, beginning with what to do with Sam Darnold, coaching extensions- and potential losses- along with questions about how to build a better roster going forward.
I’ll take a look at all these and other questions as we move through the off-season.
Stay tuned.
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