It’s time to get greedy when it comes to NFC seeding
It’s time for the Minnesota Vikings to get greedy, as the No. 1 seed and an NFC North championship are both within their grasp.
But first things first — they need to get past the Seattle Seahawks on the road on Sunday.
Seattle will be playing for its playoff life. Its currently the No. 8 team in the NFC, with 35 percent playoff odds according to NFL.com. With a win, those odds would vault to 50 percent and with a loss, they’d fall to 23 percent.
The Rams are also 8-6 and atop the standings in the NFC West, and will experience much less resistance this weekend by facing the New York Jets.
So the Vikings are already in the playoffs and will be playing a desperate Seahawks team — how will that shake out?
Well, it should be fun to find out, and we’ve enlisted Daily Norseman staffers Christopher Gates, Brandon Warne (me!) and Sam Buegler as experts this week to answer all your burning questions:
Q1: How do you feel about the Vikings’ chances of winning the North/getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC?
Christopher Gates: “I think it’s a coin flip as to whether or not they can pull it off at this point. They’ve historically had a lot of trouble in Seattle and then they have a tough one at home against Green Bay before the season finale in Detroit. The Lions, on the other hand, have what should be a bye week against a Chicago team that’s mailing it in and a 49ers team that might not have a whole lot to play for, either. If they do manage to get to Week 18 in a tie with the Lions record-wise, I like their chances, but the difficult part is probably going to be in getting there with a chance to pull it off.”
Brandon Warne: “I’m about 50-50 on it. I think the Lions skate into Week 18 against the Vikings without losing between now and then. That puts significant pressure on Minnesota with three playoff-ish-caliber teams to close out their season. But if the Vikings and Lions can both run the table into Week 18, I like their chances. And maybe then it’ll calm some of the nonsensical “who have the Vikings beaten?” takes we’re seeing online right now.”
Sam Buegler: “It’s very possible. The Vikings have a harder path to getting it than the Lions or Eagles, but if we go into Week 18 at 14-2, I would feel solid about our chances of winning that game. We are playing them at home when we were close to winning last time at Ford Field. The Lions are very beat up now, having 16 players on IR on defense, so while it would be a tough matchup, I definitely feel better about it now than I did earlier in the season.”
Q2: What game besides this one will you be giving the most attention to this weekend?
CG: “I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on the Philadelphia/Washington game, because the Eagles are still in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the conference as well. It should be a pretty good game between two solid teams as well, but it’s one of the games that will directly affect the Vikings’ playoff position, potentially. Both of the NFC North contenders have games that should be relatively one-sided, with Detroit playing Chicago and Green Bay playing New Orleans on Monday night, so if you want to watch a good game that could affect the Vikings’ fortunes, then Philadelphia/Washington would be the one.”
BW: “Obviously it’s Giants-Falcons, right? All kidding aside, it’s not an insanely compelling weekend. Tampa Bay-Dallas on Sunday night is likely to be a snooze-fest and Green Bay is favored by an astonishing 14 points on Monday night against the Saints.
“So in other words, it really comes down to Philadelphia and Washington — mostly because I want to see Jayden Daniels pull a rabbit out of his metaphorical hat and help the Vikings draw closer to the No. 1 seed. I need playoff football at U.S. Bank Stadium, and there aren’t that many avenues to make that happen in games outside of the Vikings playing.”
SB: “There are two I am the most interested in. First, the Chiefs/Texans match up. If Mahomes is still hurt but is playing through it, that could have a big impact on the game and potentially the playoffs as a whole. Second, the Eagles/Commanders. An Eagles loss this week would be very helpful for the Vikings to get closer to the 1 seed, and it should be a fun game as well. Both teams have the potential for high-powered offenses, so it could turn into a shootout.”
Q3: What matchup concerns you the most on Sunday?
CG: “The Vikings’ defensive front against Seattle’s run game. Since Ivan Pace Jr. went out with an injury, the Vikings’ defense hasn’t been as good against the run as in the early part of the season. With Geno Smith dealing with the knee injury he suffered against Green Bay last week, the Seahawks might have to lean on their running game a bit more. The Seahawks have a pair of solid backs in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, and if they can get them going early on, it will make things that much more difficult for the Minnesota defense.”
BW: “Yeah I’m right there with CG. What Walker (3.7 yards per carry) and Charbonnet (4.3) have lacked in big-play ability this season, they’ve made up for in finding the end zone (15 combined rushing scores).
“Obviously you can’t sleep on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf, either. Really, for me it comes down to if the Vikings can get to Smith, they can dictate the way things go for the Seattle offense. Smith has a wretched 14-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season, and has been more of a liability than an asset (43 sacks taken, 89.9 rating).”
SB: “DK Metcalf. No matter who we end up putting on him, I will always be concerned about the Geno to DK connection. He hasn’t had a large game in a few weeks, so I am sure that he badly wants a chance to show up. I also am very curious about the fans in the stadium. The Seahawks fans didn’t really show up last week, with the Packers fans taking over. If Vikings fans can show up in a big way that will make a big impact while playing somewhere as tough as Lumen Field.”
Q4: What’s your final score prediction, and why?
CG: “I think this is the time for the Vikings to get the Seattle monkey off their backs. They’ve lost their last five games in Seattle and haven’t won there since 2006. But they’re going to know that they need this one to keep pace with Detroit and Philadelphia in the race for the top seed in the NFC and the NFC North division title. Kevin O’Connell is going to have this team focused and I think they’ll get the job done to set up a big one at U.S. Bank Stadium next weekend. We’ll call it 24-20 in favor of the Vikings.”
BW: “I’ve got the Vikings winning in a close one, 17-14. I’m not the biggest Geno Smith guy and I don’t think he’ll be at 100 percent necessarily, either. D.K. Metcalf is a beast and the 1-2 punch of Walker and Charbonnet is worth watching, but I think the Vikings do just enough to win YET ANOTHER one-score game under KOC. I think an Andrew Van Ginkel pick seals it late.”
SB: “Vikings 24, Seahawks 21. It will be a close game, but one that the Vikings will end up winning. It will be a tough, probably tense game again but the Vikings believe in this team and their coach, and will come out on top.”