Sam Darnold Continues His Ascent

His continued improvement could change the Vikings’ calculus by the end of the postseason

The Minnesota Vikings turned what had been tight game against the Atlanta Falcons into an eventual blowout, 42-21, largely because of the performance of quarterback Sam Darnold.

It was arguably the best performance of Darnold’s career, going 22/28 for 347 yards, 5 TDS, no turnovers, a 157.9 passer rating and an 84.2 QBR. Yards, TDs, passer rating, and QBR were all season highs. The first three stats were also career highs. He also set a Vikings season record for 100+ passer rating games with 11, which also leads the league.

Darnold was able to rack up all those stats on a day that the Vikings offense struggled with pass protection. Darnold was under pressure on many of his drop backs, which contributed to a couple stalled drives due to sacks, but managed to navigate collapsing pockets to extend plays and turn them into explosive ones.

Darnold Now Top Ten in Most Major Quarterback Metrics for the Season

From passer rating (108.1 – 3rd) to overall PFF grade (86.4 – 6th) to ANY/A (7.39 – 9th) to CPOE (6.2% – 2nd) to EPA/dropback (+0.07 – 11th) to CPOE+EPA composite (0.152 – 7th) Darnold is now top ten in most major quarterback metrics and a few other box score stats like passing yards and touchdowns. He’s also tied for second in game winning drives with four and is the only quarterback in the league with 11 games with a passer rating above 100.

And Darnold has done all this not as a game-manager style quarterback, which has never been his style, but as an aggressive, big-game hunter looking for explosive plays downfield. He’s tied with Josh Allen for the number and percentage of PFF’s Big-Time Throws (BTT) and has the third longest average depth of target (ADoT) at 9.5 yards. Even more impressive is his adjusted completion percentage of 79.2%, which is tied for fourth despite having an ADoT at least a yard longer than any other quarterback in the top ten in that metric.

Darnold has the third highest PFF grade when under pressure, and the highest passer rating. He has by far the highest passer rating in the league when blitzed (143.0) and the second highest PFF grade. He’s been clutch all season when the Vikings needed it and is playing some of best football now in December as the Vikings get ready for the postseason.

And if you included a 90-10% win probability garbage time filter, Darnold has been the most efficient quarterback in the league all season:

Darnold’s Performance May Be Changing the Vikings’ Calculus

All signs have been pointing to the Vikings moving on from Darnold after the season, with J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings and the signing of Daniel Jones to back him up next season. But at some point, if Darnold is realizing all the goals the Vikings have for an unproven J.J. McCarthy in the future, the Vikings could decide that the future is now and Darnold is their guy.

At a minimum they may want to hedge their bets on McCarthy being their QBOTF for another season and develop him further before deciding to move on from Darnold. The Vikings have an estimated $78.5 million in cap space in 2025, so they could afford Darnold for another season and still add some other free agents.

McCarthy hasn’t practiced since his knee injury, so while he’s participated in quarterback room meetings and meets regularly with Kevin O’Connell, and has even done some virtual reality training, he hasn’t had any on-field development since mid-August. Kevin O’Connell said today that McCarthy may begin to do some on-field practice shortly as he becomes healthy enough to do so in his rehab, but that’s likely to be limited.

If Darnold can take the Vikings deep into the playoffs- conference championship or Super Bowl– his value is likely to skyrocket, particularly as this is a weak quarterback draft class. That has implications for his future contract value and how much a team may be willing to pay for Darnold’s services.

All of the above points increasingly to a franchise tag or transition tag scenario for the Vikings and Darnold following the postseason. The Vikings are unlikely from a salary cap perspective to sign Darnold to a long-term deal at a market value that could eclipse $50 million/year, which is unaffordable given the other big contracts on the books, but they could easily decide to tag Darnold which doesn’t require any negotiations.

Franchise and Transition Tag Options

There are two franchise tag options: exclusive and non-exclusive. An exclusive franchise tag means that Darnold will be on the Vikings’ 2025 roster at an estimated $41 million on a one-year deal, plain and simple. However, the Vikings could still entertain trade offers for Darnold under this option.

A non-exclusive franchise tag means other teams may put forward offer sheets for Darnold, which the Vikings can choose to match or receive two first-round draft picks as compensation if they don’t. If the Vikings don’t receive any offers, he’ll remain on the Vikings’ roster at $41 million, just like the exclusive franchise tag option. The Ravens took this approach with Lamar Jackson but didn’t receive any offers because the rest of the league believed the Ravens would match any offer to keep their multiple league MVP, which would make putting forward any offer sheet a waste of time that would tie up their salary cap during a busy time of free agency.

With the Vikings, however, having J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings, and presumably Daniel Jones too, the rest of the league may see the Vikings as willing to part with Darnold for the right compensation, which would make offers more likely than was the case with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

The Vikings could also Transition Tag Darnold, which can be done for an estimated $36 million salary on a one-year deal but also allows other teams to make offers for Darnold. The Vikings could choose to match any offer but would not receive any compensation if they chose not to do so.

How much other teams are willing to pay Darnold, and what they may be willing to pay in draft capital as well, will likely be determined by how far Darnold takes the Vikings into the postseason and how well he performs.

For the Vikings, there are two considerations and scenarios they would need to be comfortable with in deciding to tag Darnold.

First, they would need to be comfortable keeping Darnold for another season at the franchise or transition tag salary if they tagged him and didn’t get any offers.

Secondly, if Darnold takes the Vikings to the Super Bowl and they decide on either franchise tag option and receive an offer they can’t refuse, they need to be comfortable that J.J. McCarthy is both their QBOTF and a better one than Darnold, all things considered, for the 2025 season and beyond. Or that Daniel Jones or some other quarterback could fill in and provide Darnold-like performance.

Bottom Line

Sam Darnold’s continued ascent this season makes it increasingly difficult- and unwise- for the Vikings to simply let him go after the postseason. To the extent that Darnold increases his value by his performance for the remainder of the regular season and in the postseason, the Vikings would at a minimum be foregoing valuable draft capital by letting him go without tagging him. They would almost certainly get a bottom 3rd round compensatory pick when Darnold signs with another team, but teams will be willing to pay a lot more for a top ten quarterback that delivers in the postseason.

Secondly, the Vikings may want a more extended look at McCarthy, or more time for him to develop, before deciding to part ways with Darnold. The Vikings have seen him in practice working with the second and third string units and in a grand total of one preseason game. Is that enough to be certain he can perform to Darnold’s level? Which quarterback gives them the best chance to win next season? Would Darnold be worth the price tag?

Kevin O’Connell may be the quarterback whisperer but deciding to let Darnold go only to discover McCarthy isn’t as good or durable would be seen as a critical mistake. Nobody will care about salary cap considerations in letting Darnold go, or draft compensation, if McCarthy turns out not to be the guy. This much is certain.