A lot depends on this penultimate game of the regular season for both teams
Both the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers have earned a spot in the NFC postseason tournament, so from that perspective there isn’t much at stake when the two teams take the field on Sunday afternoon.
But both teams have known they were playoff bound for about a month, as they’ve compiled two of the best records in the NFC and are focusing on other aspects of competing for a Super Bowl this season.
For each team, there are some things they’d like to check off their list in preparation for the postseason and can help position them for success once the playoffs begin. Here are some of the stakes for both teams:
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have been eliminated from the competition for the NFC North division crown, despite going 11-4 so far, given the Vikings and Lions are both 13-2 with two games to play and one of those two teams will only lose one more game at most given they play each other week 18.
But for the Packers, they have yet to show they can beat a top tier team. Their four losses come against the Lions (twice), Vikings, and Eagles. They’ve beaten depleted Rams and Texans teams that are likely to make the playoffs, but that’s it. So for the Packers, an opportunity to beat a top tier team in the Vikings- their last of the regular season- would boost their confidence heading into the postseason.
Sunday’s matchup will also go a long way in determining the Packers seed in the playoffs. If they win, they’ll almost certainly keep the sixth seed, which is where they land currently, with a chance at the fifth seed if the Vikings lose to the Lions. But if they lose, they’ll likely be bumped down to the seventh seed if the Commanders are able to beat the Falcons and Cowboys to end their season (they’re favored in both games) as the Commanders hold the tie-breaker over the Packers if they beat the Bears as expected to end their season.
A seventh seed for the Packers means traveling to Philadelphia for a wild card matchup while a sixth seed means traveling to LA or Tampa.
Minnesota Vikings
For the Vikings, they need to win this game to keep their chance alive to win both the NFC North crown, the first seed in the playoffs, a first-round bye week, and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Beating the Packers would also give them some added confidence going into the final game of the regular season at Detroit.
If the Vikings beat the Packers, however, the Lions will play a meaningless game against the 49ers on Monday night. It is rendered meaningless as it won’t matter if the Lions win or lose that game because the Vikings-Lions week 18 matchup will still be for the division title and first seed, given the tiebreakers involved, including with the Eagles. The loser in this scenario would become the fifth seed.
If the Vikings lose to the Packers, their week 18 matchup against the Lions would be largely meaningless if the Lions beat the 49ers on Monday night. They would still be playing to keep the fifth seed, assuming the Packers beat the Bears week 18, rather than becoming the sixth seed if they lost to the Lions. However, in this scenario the week 18 matchup between the Lions and Vikings would be meaningless to the Lions, who would’ve wrapped up the division title and first seed after week 17 and therefore may not play their key starters.
The Matchup
In the two meaningful games the Vikings have played against the Packers and Jordan Love, Love has had passer ratings of 72.1 and 83.0. The one meaningless game being the late one last season when the Vikings had nothing to play for, realistically. The Vikings won both meaningful games and both were at Green Bay.
In the week four matchup at Green Bay, which the Vikings went up 28-0 before eventually prevailing 31-28, the Vikings were without starters Ivan Pace Jr. and T.J. Hockenson. Ed Ingram was starting at right guard instead of Dalton Risner. The Vikings are likely to play both Pace and Hockenson on Sunday, but Cam Robinson instead of Christian Darrisaw in week four, while the Packers are likely to be playing the same starters as week four but could possibly be missing one or two additional starters. The biggest plus for the Packers is that Jordan Love has fully recovered from his knee injury and come into the game with some momentum, having blown out the Seahawks and Saints in their last two games.
PFF Projected Matchups
There aren’t any glaring personnel mismatches out there but expect the Packers to put their best pass rusher- Rashan Gary against Cam Robinson most of the game. The Vikings could benefit from a depleted Packers’ secondary.
NextGenStats Matchup Advantages
Below are the matchup advantages compiled by NextGenStats. Generally, the defenses have most of the advantages in both passing and rushing categories.
Key Stat Comparison
The Vikings hold a slight advantage in most of these key stats, except yards per play on both offense and defense, and points per play on offense.
The Packers are one of the few teams in the league that have run more often than they’ve passed, although in the week four matchup they passed 79% of the time, given their large deficit to start the game.
The Vikings have the advantage in the situational stats- third down and the red zone- on both sides of the ball and completion percentage on both sides of the ball.
Keys to the Game
For the Packers, getting off to a fast start is key as it will enable them to work their running game with Josh Jacobs, who is the Justin Jefferson of their offense. The Packers love to feed him in the ground game and he’s also been a frequent target in their pass game too.
Defensively, the Packers need to be able to pressure Darnold with just four rushers, given how well Darnold has performed against the blitz and in a clean pocket. They’ll need their depleted secondary to step up against the toughest set of offensive weapons they’ve faced this season in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.
For the Vikings, stopping the run is key- which they’ve been the best in the league in doing in EPA terms. That will allow the Vikings to pressure Jordan Love on passing downs, when he’s a lot less effective when under pressure and one of the lower PFF-graded starters when facing a blitz.
Turnovers will, as always, be a key factor. The week four matchup featured seven total turnovers- four by the Packers and three by the Vikings. One of the Vikings’ turnovers happened on special teams when Jalen Nailor muffed a punt that turned into a Packers’ touchdown. Sam Darnold suffered a pick and a strip sack as well. For the Packers, Jordan Love had three interceptions and TE Tucker Kraft also lost a fumble. Which team is able to do a better job cleaning up those mistakes will also have an advantage.
The Vikings will also have the home field advantage in Sunday’s matchup, where they’ve lost only to the Lions this season. The Packers are 5-2 on the road this season, having beaten the Titans, the Rams team without WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Seattle without Geno Smith in the second half.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are one-point favorites on offshore sports betting sites while the Packers are one-point favorites on domestic sites, possibly due to where sports betting is legal and where it isn’t (it’s legal in Wisconsin but not in Minnesota), which could influence those numbers. The over/under is 48 and the moneyline odds are nearly identical. All that suggests a close game. The Vikings are 8-1 in close games and the Packers are 5-3.
The Vikings are also 5-2 against the spread at home, while the Packers are 4-3 against the spread on the road this season.