And Brian Flores too
As the Minnesota Vikings make their final push through the end of the regular season and into the postseason, there is no mistaking that this season is a product of having good people to lead the team and manage the roster.
The Vikings at 12-2 with three games to play was beyond all expectations at the beginning of the season. Only 2% of DN voters had the Vikings winning 12+ games this season in a poll with my preseason forecast (I had the Vikings going 10-7). But from what we’ve heard from Kevin O’Connell, it wasn’t beyond his expectations from about midway through the offseason, despite what was being said outside of TCO Performance Center.
The Case for Extending Kevin O’Connell as Head Coach
O’Connell exceeded expectations in his rookie season as head coach as well, going 13-4 and winning the division when the preseason over/under for the Vikings was 9.5 wins. Last season was an injury-led disappointment, losing starting quarterback Kirk Cousins for the last half of the season and Justin Jefferson for half of the season as well. But when the team has been relatively healthy over the past three seasons, O’Connell has exceeded expectations.
O’Connell’s coaching and leadership ability is not going unnoticed around the league either. In a recent poll of 27 league executives, O’Connell got the vote of 16.5 of them (one split their vote between O’Connell and Sean McVay) for Coach of the Year. The next highest vote-getter was Mike Tomlin with three votes. Dan Campbell got only two. O’Connell not only turned heads by vastly outperforming preseason expectations for the team, he’s also credited for turning Sam Darnold’s career from lead into gold and for being one of the best play-callers and play-designers in the league. And before all that for creating a positive, player-first culture that has attracted free agents to Minnesota and has led to a winning environment.
What more can you ask for from a head coach? A Super Bowl dynasty, naturally. Kevin O’Connell hasn’t taken the team to that rarified air yet, but who is a better available candidate to do so? I can’t think of one.
All that makes a pretty clear case for extending Kevin O’Connell and making him one of the higher paid head coaches in the league. A five-year extension seems appropriate given what O’Connell has done so far, along with his age, open Super Bowl window, and current roster situation.
The Case for Extending Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as General Manager
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had a terrible first draft in 2022. There is no getting around that. The trades for Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth in the late first and early second-round were both busts. Of the ten picks in that draft, only Ed Ingram, Brian Asamoah, Ty Chandler, and Jalen Nailor remain with the team. His 2023 draft was better, headlined by Jordan Addison. Third-round pick Mekhi Blackmon had a good rookie season and made the PFF All-Rookie team last year but suffered an ACL tear in the first day of training camp that ended his sophomore season before it started. Jay Ward is the only one of four day three picks still on the team. The 2024 draft is too early to judge much, especially with J.J. McCarthy on IR, but Dallas Turner looks promising, despite not putting up the stats and getting the playing time that rookie edge rusher Jared Verse has done. Turner was seen has the higher ceiling but not as developed of the two top rookie edge rushers, and the more suited to Brian Flores’ scheme. Will Reichard looks to have finally solved the Vikings kicker conundrum and so was well worth the sixth-round pick.
Overall, however, Adofo-Mensah hasn’t got a lot of production from his draft picks since becoming GM, in part from blown picks early on and injuries, a death, and too little time as pros to make a difference yet. That doesn’t make a strong case for his being extended, but many GMs struggle with their first drafts, only to get more savvy over time. But if Adofo-Mensah doesn’t have much to show for his draft picks so far, he has done a much better job navigating free agents and free agency.
His taking a firm line on extending Kirk Cousins rather than agreeing to his terms, moving on from Danielle Hunter, and signing key free agents on favorable terms- including undrafted free agents- has all proven remarkably astute and has opened the Vikings Super Bowl window ahead of schedule, with the sixth largest salary cap space available for 2025.
But it’s been the free agent additions that have rebooted the Vikings roster and have allowed them be a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.
- Sam Darnold (one-year, $10 million signing in 2024)
- Jonathan Greenard (four-year, $76 million signing ($19 million AAV) in 2024
- Andrew Van Ginkel (two-year, $20 million signing in 2024)
- Blake Cashman (three-year, $22.5 million signing in 2024)
- Aaron Jones (one-year, $7 million signing in 2024)
- Josh Metellus (two-year, $8 million extension in 2023)
- T.J. Hockenson (traded for in 2022, four-year, $66 million extension in 2023)
- Josh Oliver (three-year, $21 million signing in 2023)
- Christian Darrisaw (four-year, $104 million extension in 2024)
- Harrison Phillips (two-year, $15 million extension in 2024)
- Blake Brandel (three-year, $9.5 million extension in 2024)
- Garrett Bradbury (three-year, $15.75 million extension in 2023)
- Byron Murphy Jr. (two-year, $17.5 million signing in 2023)
- Stephon Gilmore (one-year, $7 million signing in 2023)
- Shaq Griffin (one-year, $4.55 million signing in 2023)
- Ivan Pace Jr. (three-year, $2.715 million UDFA signing in 2023)
- Justin Jefferson (four-year, $140 million extension in 2024)
- Dalton Risner (one-year, $2.41 million signing in 2024, one-year, $3 million signing in 2023)
- Harrison Smith (two-year, $10.25 million renegotiation in 2024)
The Darnold signing was considered the best of 2024 by PFF and Greenard was ranked 8th. But all of these signings have either turned into key top performers or effective/serviceable veterans at bargain prices, or in a couple cases both. Adofo-Mensah also signed low-level deals with some UDFAs that could prove to be solid performers in the future like Gabe Murphy, Bo Richter, Dwight McGlothern, Jalen Redmond, and Taki Taimani, among others. Richter is already a top special teamer and Redmond has become a starter.
Then there are also the timely additions that have helped the Vikings stay competitive in the face of injuries like Cam Robinson and John Parker Romo.
Overall, Adofo-Mensah has done a deal for every starter on the roster, except Brian O’Neill and Cam Bynum, and I believe all of the backups. This is his roster now and he’s got a lot out of it- and with a lot of salary cap space ahead in 2025 as well.
So, while Adofo-Mensah’s draft picks have largely failed or have yet to materialize, his free agency signings (and non-signings) have been exemplary and have produced top performing units this season on both sides of the ball.
There is still more work to do in improving the roster and accumulating more core players (a never-ending task), but in three years Adofo-Mensah has open the Vikings Super Bowl window and has put the team in a good place from a salary cap perspective to maintain that open window for at least the next few seasons.
Extending him on a medium deal for general managers for another three years makes sense. I don’t see the need to have Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell on the same length deals at this point. Each earn their next contract on their own merits, and O’Connell has checked more boxes to this point than has Adofo-Mensah, given his drafts so far.
The Case for Extending Brian Flores
Brian Flores has made no secret that he would like to be a head coach again. Whether that opportunity comes again in 2025 remains to be seen. And whether such an opportunity is the right one for Flores is another question. He took himself out of the running for the Arizona head coaching job last year to take the Vikings’ defensive coordinator job.
As good a defensive coordinator as Flores is, he has some baggage that may keep him from getting a head coaching offer- at least in the short term. His lawsuit against the league may put off some ownership groups, while his relationship with Tua Tagovailoa when he was head coach in Miami may also hinder his chances with teams that need to develop a quarterback. It also doesn’t help to be a defensive coach, as the trend these days is for an offensive head coach and I believe most of the head coaching vacancies in this coming cycle may be looking for a head coach from that side of the ball. We’ll see.
In the meantime, the Vikings have an opportunity to give Flores a lot to give up should a head coaching job be offered to him. That should include a raise to make him one of the highest paid coordinators in the league along with an extension and an assistant head coach title if that carries value for Flores.
Flores has taken a Vikings defense that was the worst in the league under Ed Donatell in 2022 and in two seasons made it a top unit in the league. That’s about as good as it gets. And he’s done it without any elite contracts on his side of the ball. Jonathan Greenard has an AAV of $19 million and all the other starters are $10 million or under.
Flores has done it with a state-of-the-art scheme, which he continues to develop each season to keep it that way. He’s also done it by carefully procuring the right players for his scheme and getting them in the right role. Clearly his input on players like Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, Pace, Gilmore, Dallas Turner, and Shaq Griffin carried weight. And how he’s fashioned Josh Metellus from a backup safety into a quality starter and versatile chess piece has been extraordinary.
At this point, the defensive players on the Vikings’ roster are made to play in Flores’ scheme. That creates a problem should Flores leave. Who could replace him and continue to develop and call his scheme as well as Flores, not to mention be able to find the right players to continue to play in it? Flores brings a lot to the table from a scheme and personnel perspective and has a lot of experience in both jobs. He is not easily replaceable.
All that argues for the Vikings to do all they can to make Flores happy, comfortable, and successful in Minnesota. A raise, extension, and additional title could help do that.
O’Connell Could Have Some Decisions to Make on His Offensive Staff Too
Going back to the offensive staff, Kevin O’Connell could have some decisions to make on some key coaches on that side of the ball. Quarterbacks coach Josh McCown could be in the mix for an offensive coordinator job, as he’s been seen as a key contributor to Sam Darnold’s improvement and teams with young quarterbacks may look to add McCown to their staff. As a former starting quarterback in the NFL, McCown brings a perspective to the offensive coordinator position and key coach for quarterbacks that not many offensive coordinators have. The question then becomes, if McCown is looking to move up, whether O’Connell is happy with Wes Phillips as OC or if he wants to promote McCown or lose him. I’m not sure how highly O’Connell views Phillips’ performance as OC, but he seems to value McCown as a quarterbacks coach and has a good relationship with him. And with lots of quarterbacks to develop, keeping McCown on staff may be something of a priority. We’ll see how it plays out, but most likely there will be some decisions for Kevin O’Connell on the offensive side of the ball when the season is over.
Wide receivers coach Keenan McCardell has also been working to land an offensive coordinator job, but at his age (54) he may not be first on anybody’s list as a first-time coordinator. That’s not to say he won’t land an offer, and if he did it would be difficult to replace his wealth of experience as a coach and former NFL receiver.
On the other side of things, I’m not sure running game coordinator/running backs coach Curtis Modkins is the best one to improve the Vikings’ run game going forward. He’s well respected as a running backs coach and former offensive coordinator at several stops in his 30-year coaching career in the league, but after three seasons, the Vikings’ running game hasn’t shown much improvement. Could be time for a fresh perspective.
Bottom Line
Kevin O’Connell has taken a dysfunctional team in the last years of Mike Zimmer and rebooted it with a new culture and approach that couldn’t be more different. His style and coaching have won praise from his players and around the league and has made the Vikings an attractive landing spot for free agents.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been later in making more tangible contributions to the new regime, but they have come and have been substantial. He has yet to nail any of his drafts so far but has done a great job adding free agents on good deals that have turned into a bunch of core players. His draft picks have yet to materialize much as contributors outside of Jordan Addison, but a couple of big ones in J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner are promising but too soon to judge their impact on the team.
Brian Flores has taken the Vikings defense from worst to first in two seasons. Keeping him in Minnesota to manage the defense with O’Connell doing the same for the offense and the team overall seems essential, along with Adofo-Mensah managing the front office, in keeping the Vikings’ Super Bowl window open for the foreseeable future.
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