After unloading Jose Berrios at
the trade deadline, watching Kenta Maeda go under the knife, and seeing Michael
Pineda hit free agency, the Twins starting rotation is bare. Who is the top
choice to bolster it?
As of right now you’d have to bank
on either Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan being the Opening Day starter in 2022 for
Rocco Baldelli. Both showed well in their rookie seasons, but if that’s the top
of the rotation, there’s cause for concern in the year ahead. Minnesota failed
tremendously on the mound, and depth was exposed quickly as both J.A. Happ and
Matt Shoemaker flopped. For the Twins to make a turnaround in the year ahead,
the focus must be on a resurgence from the bump.
Similarly to the 2021 season, the
hope is that Minnesota will see graduations from the farm. Top arms like Jordan
Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, and Matt Canterino all posted mixed results with
injuries sprinkled in. Another year back from the cancelled 2020 season, and
the hope would be that a clean bill of health is parlayed into peak effectiveness.
Before banking on the youth though, the Twins need to give Wes Johnson some
workable ammunition for a group that is essentially bare.
The free agent crop this offseason
is a who’s who of big names, and while not all may make it to the open market,
there should be one or two that fit to Minnesota’s liking. Here’s how I’d
categorize the options:
The Injured – Clayton Kershaw and
Justin Verlander
There’s a known commodity and a
more unknown question here. Kershaw represents the unknown as he’s dealing with
an elbow injury that cost him multiple months this season. He is avoiding
surgery for the time being but could be ticketed for a much longer time on the
shelf if he goes under the knife. The career-Dodger will be 34 next season but
has a ton of miles on his arm. Production has never been the issue and if he
can avoid back and elbow concerns for the next year or so, there’s reason to
like him on a short term deal.
On the flip side you’ve got a guy
in Verlander who will be returning from Tommy John surgery having last pitched
in 2020. He’ll be 39 next season and has thrown just six innings since 2019.
There’s hardly been a time in which you’ve questioned his ability though, and a
clean elbow could have him looking like an appetizing option on a one-year
deal. The Astros will likely give him a qualifying offer should that still
exist, but Verlander definitely has familiarity with the AL Central.
The Aging – Max Scherzer and Zack
Greinke
Having just turned 37, that’s
about the only reason to define Scherzer as aging. He’s still every bit the
dominant pitcher he has been over the course of his career, and he’s attempting
to carry a Dodgers staff through the Postseason. Of the options available, I
think he’s probably the most likely to be retained by the current team, and
while I wouldn’t expect Los Angeles to give him a long extension, they
certainly have the money to persuade him to stay.
With the Astros having rotational
issues this Postseason it’s clear they have work to do in that department. I’m
not sure they hang onto a guy in Greinke that has hit somewhat of a decline.
His 4.16 ERA was the highest mark since 2016 and he’s clearly struggled down
the stretch. If another team believes they can work through the current
ineffectiveness, this is probably the best bet for a good starter on a one-year
deal. He seems like a fit for Minnesota but comes with plenty of uncertainties.
The Youth – Marcus Stroman and
Kevin Gausman
If you want to secure a long-term
pact with a rotation anchor this is where you’re turning. Starting with
Stroman, you’ve got a guy in the midst of his prime and coming off a very
strong season. Not a big strikeout guy, Stroman needs to be backed by a good
infield as he’s a ground ball maestro. Someone that appears to be a very good
leader and clubhouse presence, this is a personality that could mesh well with
the Twins plans for quite some time.
The breakout finally happened for
Gausman, and it came in a big way. With the Giants being baseball’s best team,
the 30-year-old posted a career best 2.81 ERA. He racks up strikeouts, limits
walks, and looks every bit the ace you’d hope for. 2020 is where things seemed
to click for the former Orioles pitcher, so you’ll need to make sure there’s a
belief in the results going forward, but nothing he’s put up recently is
anything an organization would want to avoid.
A positive this winter is that
pitching options are plentiful. Those above just barely scratch the surface
considering names like Syndergaard, Bundy, and even Pineda are all available.
The Twins need to find a path forward, and for a transitional time it might
make sense to focus on short term deals. There should be any number of options
that are within their wheelhouse, and while the big names are there as always,
this might be an opportunity to land the right fit without breaking the bank.