With the trade deadline a week away, the Twins currently sit in playoff position and still have a good chance to catch the Cleveland Guardians for the division with an easier schedule and plenty of head-to-head matchups to make up ground. In any normal season, that would make them clear buyers, but Pohlad’s unwillingness to spend money on the team could hurt Derek Falvey’s deadline strategy.
To be fair, for all of Falvey’s strengths as a GM, the trade deadline hasn’t been one of them. He has made plenty of great trades in the offseason (see: Pablo Lopez, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray), but deadline deals have been a struggle. As a buyer, their best moves were probably acquiring Sergio Romo in 2019 and Michael Fulmer in 2022, which are not exactly crown jewels. They picked up Joe Ryan for two months of bad Nelson Cruz, but that was a selling move, which isn’t a factor here.
However, I will proceed under the assumption that Falvey has clearance to bring in an additional $5M or so in any trades, an amount that would allow them to acquire a single starter or a couple relievers. I also wouldn’t plan on the Twins picking up any money that extends beyond this season, ruling out players like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger. With all those caveats, let’s take a look at starting pitchers that could fit the bill for Minnesota. Relievers and hitters will come later this week.
Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays
If I’m the Twins, Kikuchi would be my top target. A free agent at season’s end, Kikuchi has all the talent in the world, but it comes with a streakiness that has kept his overall numbers down throughout his career. However, I think he would clearly be the Twins’ fourth-best starter right now, easily slotting in ahead of Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson, with the potential to climb the Twins’ playoff plans if he pitches well down the stretch. If he struggles, his pure stuff is good enough to make him a weapon out of the bullpen as well, like the Blue Jays have done with him in recent seasons.
He toes the qualifying offer line, so the Twins may have to beat the draft pick compensation Toronto would receive if he leaves. However, he’s also on that tricky edge where he could just accept the QO, which a rebuilding Blue Jays team would likely want to avoid paying. In return, think either a complex league wildcard like Yasser Mercedes or a prospect an older, MLB-caliber hitter like Yunior Severino.
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
You can copy and paste everything I wrote for Kikuchi and put it with Flaherty as well, but he will cost more in prospects to acquire. Flaherty has been better than Kikuchi this season, ranking 6th in baseball in strikeout rate while carrying a solid 3.13 ERA. Dig under the hood and he looks even better, ranking 6th in baseball in xERA, 2nd in xFIP, and 2nd in SIERA. The former top prospect is fully back.
That also plays into why he will cost more prospect capital to acquire. It’s not just that he’s better, but Flaherty seems like a lock to receive the QO from the Tigers this offseason, reject it, and sign with another team for a contract in nine figures. On top of beating potential draft pick compensation, inter-division trades always cost more and you have to reckon with the possibility of that prospect costing you division wins in the future. I personally don’t think that should factor in, but we know that’s not how baseball front offices operate.
Luis Severino, New York Mets
The two-time All-Star and Cy Young contender was once viewed as the best young arm in baseball, but injuries robbed Severino of most of his mid-to-late twenties when he was expected to lead the Yankees to the World Series. Now on a one-year, make-good deal with the Mets, Severino is healthy for the first time in six years and has quietly put together a solid season. Severino isn’t an ace anymore and is due for some second-half regression with a high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and the lowest home run rate of his career, but again, we’re trying to be realistic here.
Frankie Montas, Cincinnati Reds
I think I’ve written about Frankie Montas all three trade deadlines I’ve been at Twinkie Town, though this time it comes with a different context. In the past, he’s been a potential top-of-the-rotation arm. Now, after some arm injuries over the past two seasons, he’s more of a mid-rotation option who could help stabilize things after Bailey Ober. Montas is still young enough that he has some upside in the second half too, and the Twins have a history with the Reds that could speed along any trade process.
Max Scherzer/Nathan Eovaldi/Andrew Heaney, Texas Rangers
This is basically whatever pitcher Derek Falvey prefers from the Rangers. All three will likely be free agents at season’s end (more on that shortly), but all three come with significant risk. With Heaney, the concern is that he’s not actually that good, but adding a lefty would be a nice change of pace for a Twins’ staff that doesn’t have a lefty starter anywhere close to the majors.
Scherzer and Eovaldi would be the preferred additions, but both could prove difficult to acquire. Eovaldi has a vesting player option for $20 million in 2025 if he reaches 160 IP, which he is currently on pace to do, but the Twins could skip his turn in the rotation a few times in September if they wanted to play it safe. Additionally, Eovaldi is pitching well enough that he could end up turning it down anyway to get one final multi-year payday late in his career.
Scherzer, meanwhile, is a future Hall of Famer with an extensive injury history who turns 40 next week. He’s been good when he’s pitched this season, but has only started six games due to a scary back injury. Scherzer also has a No Trade Clause that he would have to waive to come to Minnesota, which he might not be willing to do. It’s more likely he would prefer a more surefire title contender like the Dodgers or Yankees if he’s going anywhere. It will take cooperation and, frankly, good luck for a Scherzer trade to work out for the Twins, but the upside could be worth giving it a shot.
Looking for a cheaper option? They also have Michael Lorenzen on a rental deal that should cost little in prospect capital if the Rangers are willing to move him.
Innings Eaters Better than Louie Varland
If the Twins are looking for someone in the bargain bin, there will be no shortage of options. Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals helped lead them to their World Series title in 2019 and has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since then, though he’s quietly been decent this season. The Nationals would have to pay most of his salary in any trade. Old friend Martin Perez has been bad for the Pirates in 2024, though not as bad as his surface numbers suggest.
Cal Quantrill doesn’t strike anyone out but has a good ERA while pitching in Denver, which is something. Speaking of the Rockies, they also have German Marquez, who John Foley has been trying to convince me the Twins should acquire for three years. I like buying low on him in a vacuum, but I don’t think the Twins will be interested in another pitcher returning from Tommy John Surgery.
And if the Mets do end up selling, Jose Quintana is always perfectly fine. The Cardinals are unlikely to be sellers, but if they change course, old friends Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have been pretty good and have club options for 2025. That one is for you, former blog boss TJ.