Games start tomorrow, let’s get projecting
The Twins are the rare team that have (KNOCK ON ALL THE WOOD AVAILABLE) arrived at Spring Training relatively healthy. Top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez sprained an ankle in January, slowing his start to the season, but everyone else looks like they are about where expected. Let’s break down what the Twins Opening Day roster looks like as we speak.
Starting Pitchers
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Locks: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack
In Contention: Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Louie Varland (apparently)
On the Outs: Marco Raya, Travis Adams, non-roster invitees (Huascar Ynoa, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Darren McCaughan, Randy Dobnak)
The top four here are obviously locks. There’s an argument to be made that one of the young arms should get a longer look over Paddack, but as long as Paddack is on the roster he will be in the Opening Day rotation. His velocity has been consistently up this Spring.
Essentially, you have last year’s rookie trio competing for the final spot in the Twins’ Opening Day rotation. SWR, Zebby, and Festa all have distinct strengths and weaknesses, and this truly may come down to which of the three puts up the best results in Spring. I believe SWR and Festa have a leg up on Zebby since they will be able to handle an increased workload. Louie (or Louis, according to the Twins’ new player guide) Varland is likely heading to the bullpen still, but both Rocco Baldelli and Derek Falvey won’t commit to that yet.
Bullpen
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
Locks: Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands, Danny Coulombe, Michael Tonkin
In Contention: Jorge Alcala, Justin Topa, Eiberson Castellano, Kody Funderburk, Louie Varland
Injured List: Brock Stewart
On the Outs: Matt Canterino, non-roster invitees (Anthony Misiewicz, Scott Blewett, Alex Speas, Ryan Jensen, Erasmo Ramirez)
The reason players like Alcala and Topa are “in contention” rather than “locks” all comes down to Brock Stewart’s health. Given Stewart’s health history and offseason surgery, I’m assuming the Twins start the season with him on the IL just to give him a bit more time to build up.
If they do try to push Stewart for Opening Day, one of Alcala, Topa, or Castellano will need to start the season in St. Paul. As a Rule 5 draft pick, Castellano can’t be optioned without being offered back to the Phillies unless they work a trade for him first. Then, with Michael Tonkin out of options, that would mean that one of Alcala or Topa would have to be sent to Triple-A in order to make the team work roster-wise. Funderburk and Varland are both long shots, which speaks to the depth the Twins have in the ‘pen.
If Canterino can stay healthy, keep your eye on him as a potential mid-season late-game option. His curveball is nasty.
Infielders
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Locks: Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez, Ty France (sigh)
In Contention: Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, Mickey Gasper, Mike Ford (NRI)
On the Outs: Jair Camargo, Diego Cartaya, non-roster invitees (Yunior Severino, Luke Keaschall, Armando Alvarez, Patrick Winkel, Alex Isola)
Rocco has been talking up France as the starting first baseman for the Twins this season, so he gets a nod in the “lock” category from the jump despite his non-guaranteed salary.
Lee and Julien are competing for the starting second base job after both had disappointing 2024s. If Mickey Gasper can defend well enough, he could work his way into that competition too. If the Twins aren’t wowed with any of those three, Castro will likely be the starter there while Lee and Julien work out their issues in St. Paul.
Ford also works his way into contention thanks to being a big, lefty bat, which the Twins are lacking on the infield. If he hits well, he could have a role off the bench with how Rocco likes to sub players. In Miranda’s case, his destiny is also tied to his bat. If he can make hard contact more consistently, he could be part of the 1B/DH rotation. Though even if he doesn’t he will have a chance to make the team as a bench bat. Nearly 27 years old, there’s not much else he can learn in Triple-A.
Outfielders
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
Locks: Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Harrison Bader
In Contention: Austin Martin
On the Outs: Emmanuel Rodriguez, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., non-roster invitees (Jeferson Morales, Luke Keaschall)
This is probably the most set group of all, which you can tell from the lack of non-roster invitees the Twins brought in. Minnesota has their three starters set, a capable backup at all three spots, and Willi Castro in the mix if needed. If Martin can show better defensive ability, he could have the inside track to a roster spot and maybe even factor his way into the second base competition. The bat has always been decent enough, just need his athletic tools to translate defensively.
Full Roster Projection
Competitions and spots up for grabs are italicized.
Starting Pitchers (5):
SP1: Pablo Lopez
SP2: Joe Ryan
SP3: Bailey Ober
SP4: Chris Paddack
SP5: David Festa
Relief Pitchers (8):
CL: Jhoan Duran
RP1: Griffin Jax
RP2: Cole Sands
RP3: Justin Topa
RP4: Jorge Alcala
RP5: Michael Tonkin
Lefty: Danny Coulombe
Long relief: Eiberson Castellano
- Note: this is projecting Brock Stewart to start the season on the IL
Hitters
C: Ryan Jeffers
1B: Ty France
2B: Edouard Julien
3B: Royce Lewis
SS: Carlos Correa
LF: Trevor Larnach
CF: Byron Buxton
RF: Matt Wallner
DH: Jose Miranda
UTIL: Willi Castro
Bench C: Christian Vazquez
Bench: Harrison Bader
Bench: Mickey Gasper
I’m projecting David Festa to win the 5th starter slot and Brock Stewart to the IL to simplify the bullpen. Offensively, I think Julien puts up great Spring Training numbers and reclaims second base, while Miranda does just enough to warrant that DH role. For the final bench spot, I have Gasper over Martin. Neither offers much defensively, but Martin might be restricted to solely outfield duty at this point in his career which limits his versatility. Between Bader and Castro, the Twins have plenty of outfield depth already. I also like Gasper better as a pinch-hitting option against lefties. Martin has reverse splits for his career, both majors and minors.