Royce Lewis’ injury shakes things up.
With a week to go until Opening Day, the Twins roster seems to be set in stone, with the only questions left being about specific roles. As a friendly reminder, Spring Training stats don’t really matter and any one of you could go pull up the Twins’ baseball reference page and see who’s performing best in the battle for the final 2-3 roster spots. They’re not completely irrelevant, but I find it’s more helpful to look at lineup configurations, opportunities given, and comments made by the coaching staff. Any changes from the previous update will be italicized in the top section.
Starting Pitchers
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Locks: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
In Contention: None
On the Outs: Louie Varland, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Marco Raya, Travis Adams, non-roster invitees (Huascar Ynoa, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Darren McCaughan, Randy Dobnak)
The top three SPs are as locked as locked can be. Paddack hasn’t performed well, but he will be in the Opening Day rotation unless he gets hurt or traded. If he’s struggling a few months into the season while others are tearing it up in St. Paul, we might have a different story.
With the recent round of roster cuts, the Twins solidified their rotation with only five true starters remaining in Big League camp. The more interesting question will be who is first up among Zebby and Festa whenever the Twins need their next starter, but hopefully we don’t have to find out the answer to that question for quite some time.
Bullpen
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Locks: Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands, Danny Coulombe, Jorge Alcala, Eiberson Castellano, Louie Varland, Brock Stewart
In Contention: none (for now)
Injured List: Justin Topa, Michael Tonkin, Matt Canterino
On the Outs: Kody Funderburk, non-roster invitees (Anthony Misiewicz, Scott Blewett, Alex Speas, Ryan Jensen, Erasmo Ramirez)
With injuries to Tonkin, Topa, and Canterino this week, the bullpen mix seems to be set. Topa is dealing with shoulder tightness, though the severity of it is unclear. Canterino, meanwhile, just can’t catch a break with yet another season-ending surgery. His stuff is electric, but he’s a new DFA candidate should the Twins need a 40-man roster spot.
The new injuries move Alcala, Varland, and Castellano to locks. Funderburk was demoted thanks to general ineffectiveness and the volume of relievers above him on the depth chart. Brock Stewart, meanwhile, looks to be healthier than expected and should be in the bullpen to start the season, though don’t expect him to carry a heavy load.
Castellano could get bumped if they work out a trade for him, but there’s been no such move thus far. His stuff looks good, but he needs to throw more strikes in order to be an effective long-relief man. If Castellano gets returned or optioned (with a trade), I would expect Scott Blewett or Randy Dobnak to earn a 40-man roster spot by default.
Infielders
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Locks: Carlos Correa, Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez, Ty France (sigh from previous post temporarily removed), Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, Mickey Gasper
In Contention: None
Injured List: Royce Lewis
On the Outs: Jair Camargo, Diego Cartaya, non-roster invitees (Yunior Severino, Luke Keaschall, Armando Alvarez, Patrick Winkel, Alex Isola, Mike Ford)
With Royce Lewis missing the start of the season, all three of Lee, Julien, and Gasper are now locks to make the Opening Day roster. Gasper in a bench role, while Lee and Julien should be in the lineup most days as they cycle between various infield spots with Miranda and France. Should another injury occur in the next week, Austin Martin may see some time at second as well as Baldelli mixes and matches.
I also really like what Gasper brings to the table as a bench bat/pinch hitter against both righties and lefties who can also play catcher in a pinch. I projected him to be on the Opening Day roster before Spring Training and I’m sticking to my guns on that front.
Miranda has moved to a lock, though in retrospect he probably should have already been one. The 26-year-old doesn’t have anything left to prove in Triple A and will have plenty of opportunities for ABs. Mike Ford moves out of contention. He hasn’t been playing much, and when he has he’s been almost exclusively DH-ing out of the nine hole. Not what you want from a supposed power bat.
Outfielders
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Locks: Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Harrison Bader
In Contention: Austin Martin
On the Outs: Emmanuel Rodriguez, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., non-roster invitees (Jeferson Morales, Luke Keaschall)
No changes on the outfield front, though this group was already fairly set. Keirsey has looked very good in Spring action so far, but being a lefty holds him back. If the Twins bring another outfielder to St. Louis to start the season, it will be a right hander who can platoon with Larnach and Wallner. Emmanuel Rodriguez was never going to make the cut, but it would be nice to see him in Big League action before camp is over. The talented top-20 prospect has crushed at every level, but needs experience against high-end arms. He is currently recovering from an ankle sprain.
Full Roster Projection
Competitions and spots up for grabs are italicized.
Starting Pitchers (5):
SP1: Pablo Lopez
SP2: Joe Ryan
SP3: Bailey Ober
SP4: Chris Paddack
SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson
Relief Pitchers (8):
CL: Jhoan Duran
RP1: Griffin Jax
RP2: Cole Sands
RP3: Jorge Alcala
RP4: Louie Varland
RP5: Brock Stewart
Lefty: Danny Coulombe
Long relief: Eiberson Castellano
Hitters
C: Ryan Jeffers
1B: Ty France
2B: Edouard Julien
3B: Brooks Lee
SS: Carlos Correa
LF: Trevor Larnach
CF: Byron Buxton
RF: Matt Wallner
DH: Jose Miranda
UTIL: Willi Castro
Bench C: Christian Vazquez
Bench OF: Harrison Bader
Bench: Mickey Gasper
SWR has locked in the final rotation spot. Lee starts at third (health allowing) while Julien gets to another chance to prove he can hit breaking balls. Gasper still hangs on to the final bench slot over Austin Martin. Gasper can play second or first decently well and may be able to catch some, while Martin is limited to exclusively outfield and may not even seen time in center with Bader on the roster. Between the four outfielders locked into roster spots and god-amongst-men Willi Castro, the Twins have plenty of outfield coverage already.