The correct answer is “no” but speculation is running rampant.
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to the largest deal in professional sports. The still-only-25-year-old perennial All-Star signed a 15-year contract for a staggering $765 million guaranteed, with escalators pushing the total to $800 million. With the one superstar-level hitter off the market, teams have started looking elsewhere to fill their offensive voids.
That, of course, has led teams to Carlos Correa. According to Dan Hayes of The Athletic, Twins POBO Derek Falvey has been taking calls on Correa, but the cost to acquire him would be understandably high. The Twins’ superstar shortstop is coming off the best offensive season of his career, putting up 4.3 fWAR in just 86 games of action. Combine that with his team-friendly contract and you can see the appeal for opposing teams despite his injury history.
The Case for Trading Correa
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
The case for trading Correa is a simple one, so this section won’t be long. The Twins are expected to run a payroll around $130 million again in 2025. Derek Falvey has been on record saying there will be significant changes to the team and they expect to compete in 2025. For both of those facts to be true, there has to be some salary shedding. Unlike trading away Christian Vazquez’s $10 million salary (who you would have to replace with another $5 million veteran anyway) or Chris Paddack’s $7.5 million, Correa would actually net you something in return on top of shedding the salary. Correa alone takes up about 30% of the projected payroll, an unsustainable figure for a team trying to make additions to the roster.
The Twins shouldn’t just dump his salary, and they wouldn’t do that regardless, but there’s something to be said for having almost $40 million to spend this offseason rather than being capped out. If you take that and divide it between, say, Ha-Seong Kim and Christian Walker while bringing back a young, MLB-ready player in the trade (Anthony Volpe, Luis Gil, Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu, etc.), it’s easy to see how that combination of moves brings more value for 2025, let alone the long-term prospects of what the young players could turn into.
The Case Against Trading Correa
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
Let’s start with the obvious. Players like Carlos Correa simply don’t sign with the Minnesota Twins. It took a labor lockout and (apparently) the most complicated medicals in history to secure him long-term. As a result, Correa is on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game for a player of his stature. Correa will make $37.3 million this season before his salary number starts declining in future seasons to $32.8M, $31.8M, and $31.3M. That’s the end of the guaranteed money the Twins are on the hook for.
Comparing Correa’s total guarantee ($200M/6 years) to the deals of Trea Turner ($300M/10 years) and Xander Bogaerts ($280M/11 years), it’s clear the enviable situation the Twins are in. After 2028, Correa has four more salary-declining vesting options based on playing time in the previous season, which the Twins can always manipulate if Correa struggles. If the options don’t vest, they become team options, further enhancing the Twins’ position.
Then there’s the reality of actually trading the star shortstop. Due to the aforementioned medicals and his unrelated struggles with plantar fasciitis in both feet, the Twins may not receive fair value for Correa. Derek Falvey and Co. aren’t going to trade Correa just for the sake of dumping his salary, as he’s made abundantly clear. In a theoretical Yankees trade, the Twins would likely ask for a young player like Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez, or Luis Gil in addition to other prospects. The optics alone may keep New York from dealing promising, established young players right after losing Juan Soto to their cross-town rivals.
Other big spenders don’t need Correa. The Astros have their own spending constraints with Alex Bregman a free agent and Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez to follow next offseason. The Cardinals are shedding salary, looking to trade some combination of Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras. The Giants just signed Willy Adames and extended Matt Chapman. The Angels could use him, but it’s unclear what (if anything) their plan is this offseason. The Rangers, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies are all set on their infield mix.
The Red Sox make the most sense from an on-field perspective. Rafael Devers is overdue for a move to first base, which would open up third base for Correa and make young first baseman Triston Casas available in a theoretical return. But they already have a high-paid, oft-injured infielder in Trevor Story and may be hesitant to acquire another.
To complicate matters further, Correa has a full no-trade clause, meaning he needs to acquiesce to any move. The Los Angeles Dodgers have an endless supply of revenue named Shohei Ohtani and a glaring need at shortstop, but mutual bad blood between Correa and the Dodgers makes that nearly impossible. It’s already difficult to get two teams to agree to a trade, adding in a third party with a notoriously difficult agent only brings the likelihood down further.
We set out on this adventure to answer a simple question: should the Twins trade Carlos Correa? In my opinion, if they can find a partner who will give them a young, established regular (Anthony Volpe/Triston Casas/Zach Neto) and prospect capital, I think they should. With the Twins under payroll restraints until the new ownership is in place (which could take several years), having one player take almost a fifth of your payroll isn’t sustainable for a contending team.
Now, WILL the Twins trade Carlos Correa? That’s a definitive no. Between limited potential partners and Correa’s health, I don’t think the offer Falvey wants will materialize. And that may end up being a good thing in the long run. Carlos Correa is one of the best baseball players on the planet and I want him on my favorite baseball team. If the new ownership increases payroll, and there’s no reason to think they won’t, his contract still puts the Twins in an enviable position for the next half-decade, even if that means limited routes to improvement in 2025.