Despite the doom and gloom, the Twins still have a great shot to make it this week.
Six games left, one game out. It’s now or never if the Twins want to salvage their 2024 campaign. The good news is that both the schedule and tiebreakers favor the Twins if they can put together a semblance of competent baseball over the next week.
Current Standings
After yesterday’s games, the Twins sit a game behind the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals for the final two playoff spots. The Seattle Mariners, meanwhile, are lurking right behind the Twins should someone above them falter. While the Orioles aren’t locked into the top Wild Card spot quite yet, they likely will be by Wednesday or Thursday, which is important for the Twins as we will discuss later.
Tiebreakers
With how tight everything currently stands, tiebreakers are going to be critical. Game 163s are gone, with MLB moving to a tiebreaker system that starts with head-to-head matchups. Should the Twins tie with any of Detroit, Kansas City, or Seattle, they would win that tiebreaker thanks to the midsummer, good Twins taking the season series against each team. In the event of a three-way tie, if one team won the head-to-head matchups with the other two teams, they would get the top position the three teams are vying for, while the remaining teams would use the usual tiebreaker rules.
MLB’s rules do not specify the situation for a four-way tie, but I would have to imagine the Twins would come out on top in that scenario as well thanks to them holding the season series over all three other contenders. Also of note: the Royals hold the tiebreaker over the Tigers, so they need to finish with a better record than one of Minnesota or Kansas City if they want to make the postseason.
However you shake it, everything here is favoring the Twins thanks to how well they were playing earlier this season. They simply need to win one more game than the Tigers or Royals over the next week.
Remaining Games
The Minnesota Twins finish with six games at home against the Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles. The Marlins are bad, but the Orioles are a very good, playoff-bound team even despite their recent struggles. With a four-game lead on the top Wild Card spot, they will likely be locked into that position by the time Friday rolls around, which would be great for the Twins to not face the best version of the Orioles. Also looming in this scenario is a potential playoff matchup with Baltimore should the Twins end up with the second AL Wild Card.
The Tigers, unfortunately, have a similarly easy schedule. They are also at home for their final six games with matchups against the Tampa Bay Rays and hapless Chicago White Sox. You have to assume the Tigers will win all three against the historically terrible White Sox, so the Twins will need the Rays to do some work early this week.
The Royals and Mariners, however, sit at the other end of the spectrum. Seattle finishes with three games at Houston, who still needs to lock down the AL West crown, and three at home against the Oakland A’s who have quietly been very good in the second half.
More relevant to Minnesota’s fortunes is the Royals, the only playoff contender that has had a worse week than the Twins thanks to seven straight losses. Kansas City heads to Washington for three games, who have been bad but not terrible, and then finish at Atlanta. The Braves have been in playoff position all season but now sit two games behind both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks for a Wild Card spot. Atlanta is a tough place for visiting teams no matter the scenario, but Twins fans should be rooting for a few Mets or D-Backs losses early this week so that they are still in the playoff race when the Royals come to town.
All three of the AL Central teams have a similar final six games with three against basement dwellers and three against good teams. The Twins have the fortune of playing the Orioles after their playoff position is (likely) locked in, while the Tigers have the fortune of playing the White Sox as they are on pace to set the MLB loss record. Minnesota also has the benefit of lining up their two best starting pitchers to play in the final weekend, which gives you a leg-up should you need it.
Without winning at least five, I think it’s going to be very difficult to pass Detroit with their three free Chicago wins built in. However, if the Twins can go 4-2 in these final six, I think it’s very likely the Royals go 3-3 or worse with their matchups and how poorly they’ve been playing. Though I suppose I should also note that the Twins haven’t won four in a six-game stretch since the beginning of August.
Buckle up folks, we’re in for a fun final week!