Right before the final bell on the Major League Baseball
offseason rang before Rob Manfred locked out the players, Minnesota got a deal
done. The Twins signed former first round pick Dylan Bundy to a one-year deal
worth $4 million. No, it’s not cut from the “same ole’ Twins” cloth.
Take a quick glance at Bundy’s 2021 numbers and it looks
like a scrap heap pickup. He had an ERA north of 6.00 and a FIP that suggests he
was equally as bad. The strikeouts dipped, the walks rose, and he gave up two
homers for every nine innings he pitched. That’s not good. Now, take another
look.
In the truncated 2020 season Bundy finished 9th
in the American League Cy Young voting. He posted a 3.29 ERA and an even better
2.95 FIP. His 9.9 strikeout rate was a career high, and his 2.3 BB/9 was a
career low. At 27 years old he posted the best season of his career. Now, where
does the truth lie?
Probably somewhere in the middle. Prior to 2020, Bundy owned
a 4.69 ERA while striking out just shy of one batter per inning. He gives up a
decent number of dingers but has largely put the injuries that plagued him as a
prospect behind him. That is, until this season. Bundy threw just 90.2 IP for
the Angels in 2021 and was one of the many pitchers that saw dips in spin rate
following the sticky substance ban.
So, what do we make of all this?
Firstly, regarding the sticky substances, it’s hard to draw
too many conclusions. Players were forced to adapt on the fly with no warning.
This is on top of having a ball that was already being manipulated by the
league itself. With more runway this offseason to work through things, we could
expect to see a greater ability of adaptation. The hope would be consistency
from the implement centered in the game, and we’ll have a greater opportunity
for a base level of results.
Secondly, regarding the injury issues, it’s fair to wonder
what the impact of a shortened 2020 and competitive changes in 2021 had on his
body. Baseball players are characters of habit and routine, throwing that off
can have substantial ripple effects and I believe we saw that to a larger
extent on the minor league side this season.
But why isn’t Bundy just another cheap pickup you ask?
Look at the upside here. Last season the Twins gave $8
million to a 38-year-old J.A. Happ who was very likely on the tail end of his
career. He’d posted sub 4.00 ERA’s but had very little upside and plenty of
room to go bottoms up. They gave $2 million to Matt Shoemaker who had been solid
when healthy, but rarely was able to stay on the field. Again, that’s a decent
amount of chance to count on in the rotation for Opening Day.
With Bundy, he has both youth and ceiling on his side while not
coming close to breaking the bank. Of course this signing on its own is not
worthy of praise should the Twins do nothing else, but if they execute on acquiring
two more arms above this ability level, it’s a threesome they can rely on. Last
season the starting staff needed top three arms or better. Instead the front
office acquired two guys to mop up innings as fourth and fifth placeholders.
Should the Twins fail to execute in allocating the funds
they could’ve dispersed to Jose Berrios as a rotation centerpiece, then they
need to be held accountable for it. Right now though, Bundy represents a solid
floor for what can be hoped to be the start of something more (once the lockout
ceases, of course).