Assigning Blame for the Twins’ Collapse

Los Angeles Angels v Minnesota Twins — Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

It’s been a bleak month.

You’ve heard it at length at this point, but the Twins are in the middle of a historic collapse, and one that could have been easily avoided if ownership provided more cash, but we’ll get to that shortly. They are 10-19 since August 18th, the third-worst record in MLB, ahead of only the Angels and historically terrible White Sox. Their playoff probability was over 95% while gaining ground on Cleveland for the division. They officially lost the division last night and are tied with the red-hot Detroit Tigers for the final playoff spot. So, how exactly should fans divvy out blame?

Ownership — 50%

I won’t go into too much detail here because I can’t say anything better than Zach did a few weeks ago, but the issues this season start from the very top. I think the “cheap Pohlad” thing was largely overblown prior to this season, but it’s come to the forefront down the stretch. Cutting $35 million from your most exciting team in two decades with legitimate World Series aspirations is complete malpractice. It took the wind out of the sails for the fans and then their TV debacle meant fans couldn’t watch the Twins for most of the summer. There’s an argument this percentage should be higher, but that would make for a less entertaining blog post.

I will put things as simply and clearly as I can: if they want to cry poor, sell the team and get out of the sport. They harm not only Twins fans but baseball as a whole. People in this state LOVE baseball and deserve an ownership group that feels the same. Contrary to what billionaires will force you to believe, they have plenty of money and actually do owe Minnesotans a good team. When 60% of your $500 million stadium was taxpayer-funded, you are in debt to the people for the rest of your time owning the team.

The Front Office — 25%

Alright, enough about the American oligarchs slowly ruining everything we hold dear. Back to depressing baseball.

While Derek Falvey and Co. could have made better moves if given money to do so, they also did pretty poorly in the bargain bin this year. They brought in six pitchers on MLB contracts this season, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, Steven Okert, and Trevor Richards, and all of them flamed out terribly either due to ineffectiveness or injury. Identifying players on the margins that can turn into something more is a critical skill for a front office, and they’ve done it before (Brock Stewart, Willi Castro, Caleb Thielbar, late-round pitchers, etc.) but going 0-6 this offseason really set the pitching staff back. They get a bit of credit for Carlos Santana, though.

Rocco Baldelli — 0.5%

If you guys have read nearly any of my work, you know I feel managers have very little impact on on-field results, and I stand by that. Rocco is a good manager who has been given little to work with. He’s put his players in positions to succeed, adjusted lineups to who’s hitting well, and made the correct bullpen moves (of those available) 90% of the time. He’s been holding players responsible and doing everything he can from his seat, but at the end of the day either the players aren’t performing or just aren’t good, neither of which are necessarily his fault.

The Hitters — 20%

The bullpen has been disappointing, and we’ll get to them shortly, but that’s in large part due to Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran being overworked and overexposed for the third season in a row. Why has that been the case? Too many close games that shouldn’t have been close to begin with.

Since the Twins’ swoon began a month ago, there are three players with more than 20 plate appearances performing at above-average levels by wRC+: Matt Wallner, Kyle Farmer, and Trevor Larnach. Austin Martin was also hitting well in limited action, but his borderline unplayable defense earned him a AAA demotion. The decline is best encapsulated by two players who were lineup fixtures up until that point: Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda.

Lewis has played in 27 games over the last month, putting up a hideous .211/.243/.295 batting line, hitting a single home run that came off the bat at a robust 91 MPH. He’s striking out nearly 30% of the time while walking only 5%. His average exit velocity is 86.4 MPH, Austin Martin levels of powerlessness. Miranda, meanwhile, has a similarly terrible .221/.247/.273 line and hasn’t hit a homer since before the All-Star break. Miranda, frankly, just might not be a good player. His overall numbers throughout his career are carried by three extraordinarily hot months of hitting and pretty poor performance outside of that.

In fact, if it wasn’t for Matt Wallner turning into a top-10 hitter, this might have been coming long before the losses piled up. Since Wallner was recalled on July 7th, he has the seventh-best wRC+ in baseball among players with 200+ plate appearances over that time, trailing only MVP candidates Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as well as Oakland’s rising sluggers Lawrence Butler and ex-Twin Brent Rooker. Dropping the PA requirement to 100, the only Twins who have performed at an above-average level in that two month+ span are Byron Buxton (who missed half of those games), Trevor Larnach (quietly solid 135 wRC+!) and Carlos Santana (109 wRC+). No one else has done anything particularly notable, low-lighted by Brooks Lee’s 39 wRC+.

Injuries to their two best and most experienced hitters hurts, but everyone outside of Larnach and Wallner has been drastically underperforming for two months. Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, Willi Castro, and especially Royce Lewis have all shown the ability to carry a lineup in the past. Some combination of 2-3 of them needs to figure it out over this last week.

The Rookie Starting Pitchers — 0.5%

Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober, especially down the stretch, have been everything the Twins could have hoped for and more. The problem is the other starters, especially after Joe Ryan’s injury. Over their past struggling month, only David Festa has been particularly good (4.94 ERA but 2.92 FIP and 3.35 xFIP) with his 0.7 fWAR trailing only Pablo, Jax, and Duran. Zebby Matthews has one terrible start but has been solid outside of that. Simeon Woods Richardson, on the other hand, has cratered from his early season success, with his K/9 dropping to 7.12 and BB/9 skyrocketing to 4.75. His 4.75 ERA has been a product of a lot of luck.

However, it’s not their fault that they are in this situation. All three have flown past their previous career highs in innings and are simply out of gas. The Twins came into the season with three reliable options, but pitching injuries are inevitable. And even if they didn’t anticipate Paddack missing so many games and DeSclafani missing the entire season, it’s not like either player has been a bastion of health throughout their careers. You want the results to be better, but this is yet another ownership/front office misplay.

The Bullpen, Excluding Jax and Duran — 3%

Ready for more terrible stats? These are all courtesy of The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman.

#MNTwins are 10-19 (.345) since August 18, the third-worst record in MLB.

During that time, the Twins’ bullpen ranks 26th in ERA (5.22) and 30th in WPA (-2.99) out of 30 teams.

And not only is their WPA dead last, it’s more than twice as bad as the next-worst bullpen (-1.42).

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 19, 2024

I should also note that those numbers are with Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran both ranking in the top 20 of reliever fWAR during that stretch, so I’m excluding them from this issue.

Cole Sands has been a revelation just good enough to save this bullpen from complete collapse. Outside of that, there’s just no juice. Jorge Alcala’s magic ran out and has been giving up homers at a historic rate. Steven Okert and Caleb Thielbar have been borderline unplayable as the lone lefties until two days ago. There’s a legitimate argument for mid-2010s Twins legend Michael Tonkin and the unfortunately named journeyman Scott Blewett being their fourth and fifth-best relievers at the moment, which is far from ideal.

A healthy Twins team could theoretically count on Brock Stewart or Justin Topa. David Festa, Chris Paddack, and Zebby Matthews could move to the bullpen where their stuff could play up in short stints. But yet again, the pitching injury bug has put players in less-than-ideal roles in a playoff race. Outside of Alcala, this isn’t a player problem, it’s a roster construction and payroll one.

Also: Kyle Farmer’s 4.17 FIP ranks 8/15 relievers used by the Twins in the last month.

Louie Varland, Specifically — 1%

Louie could end up being a great bullpen arm, but his time starting (or pitching in bulk) for the Twins has been an abject disaster from day one and deserves its own category.

388 pitchers have thrown at least 40 innings this season. Of them, Varland ranks bottom 10 in ERA, xERA, FIP, ERA-, FIP-, HR rate, hard hit rate, BAA, WHIP, xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xWOBA, xWOBACON, strand rate, fastball run value, and cutter run value. That is a lot of numbers that all say Louie has been incredibly bad when the Twins needed reliable starters, and he deserves at least some of the blame here.

Let’s end with some positives. This season hasn’t been all doom and gloom, after all. Pablo Lopez looks like that dude again. Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan both took meaningful steps forward, giving the Twins a legitimate top three in the rotation for the first time in ages. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach look like legitimate mid-order bats. Byron Buxton rediscovered his All-Star-caliber offense. Cole Sands looks like a bullpen weapon. The Twins also might have the top prospect in all of baseball (Walker Jenkins), another top-10 guy who should debut next year (Emmanuel Rodriguez), have a top-five farm system overall by every talent evaluator, and the rookie SP trio showed plenty to get excited about going forward, even if they were in over their heads this season.

Oh also, they’re still in the playoffs as we speak and control their own destiny. It’s not over ‘til the fat lady sings and I haven’t heard a croak from Detroit yet. Let the fun begin.