What is a “kick change” and how does Justin Topa fit?
The 2024 trade of Jorge Polanco was largely a lost season for all parties involved. The Twins traded their long-time middle infielder to Seattle in exchange for two prospects, outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez and pitcher Darren Bowen, as well as starter Anthony Desclafani and reliever Justin Topa. Polanco battled injuries and struggled for the Mariners, posting the lowest OPS of his big-league career. Bowen pitched to a record of 2-10 in High-A Cedar Rapids and struggled to the tune of a 6.07 ERA. Injuries also limited Gonzalez to just 81 games and he posted an OPS of .707. DeSclafani was in line to be in the back end of the Twins’ rotation, but an elbow injury ended his season before it started. He has not pitched since the injury.
After a breakout 2023 season, Topa was in line to help the back end of the Twins’ bullpen, but his 2024 season was mostly a wash, as he made only three appearances due to injury for a Twins team that had already hit the proverbial iceberg for their season. Another injury in spring training before the 2025 season caused some concern for Topa’s availability for the regular season, but Topa has been one of the few bright spots on a struggling Twins team, as he has posted an ERA of 2.35 over the course of 7.1 innings.
NOT OVER THE TOP-A
What makes Topa unique is his delivery. With his front leg, he steps towards first base, and he unfurls his pitches with a cross-body, side-arm delivery. After it looks like he’s about to fall off the mound and off the camera, he delivers his pitches with an 11-degree arm angle, which is almost completely side-armed. By comparison, Pablo Lopez employs a 36-degree arm angle.
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His deliver also creates a unique pitch mix, as we piggyback on John Foley’s article on Twinkie Town about pitchers using a new mix. Topa uses a mix of sinkers, cutters, sweepers, and changeups to keep hitters off balance. In terms of velocity, nothing for Topa really stands out, as his hardest pitch, his sinker, averages 93.7 MPH, which is almost dead on the MLB average of 93.6 MPH. Topa hurling a fastball approaching triple digits would be almost as surprising as when Shawn Michaels threw Marty Jannetty through a plate-glass window. He relies on deception and movement to create a large number of ground balls. For his career, Topa has induced ground balls at a rate of 56.3%, well above the league average of 44.4%.
The movement on Topa’s pitches is what drives his effectiveness. Among qualifying pitchers in 2025, Topa’s 4.7 inches of vertical drop on his sinker (vs. comparable) ranks in the top 20 in the majors. As for his changeup, Topa ranks second in the majors with 7.9 inches of vertical drop (vs. comparable), only trailing the moonball of Randy Dobnak. With this amount of movement, Topa can avoid hard contact, ranking in the 87th percentile of average exit velocity in 2025 (87 is good in this case).
The pitch of note for 2025 is Topa’s changeup, as he has begun to employ the trendy “kick change,” which has become the hot new trend among pitchers in the MLB. It is best explained by internet pitching guru, The Pitching Ninja, on YouTube. The main differences of a kick change versus a regular changeup have to do with the pitch grip and delivery. The kick change utilizes a spiked middle finger on the inside seam. Because of the positioning of the middle finger, the pitcher is not required to pronate his hand as much in order to get the movement that is desired in a changeup.
Topa has thrown 20 of these changeups this year, with 19 of them being thrown to left-handed batters. It has been rather effective, with only two of them put into play, with an average exit velocity of 80.8 MPH. The extra drop has also been evident in the launch angle, as the two batted balls had an average launch angle of -19 degrees. While the numbers are evident of a pitch that is diving towards the ground, visually, its difference from the previous version of his changeup is evident as well.
2023 (last full season):
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2025:
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As Topa continues to find his way into increasing high-leverage situations, his ground-ball profile will be needed to work his way out of potential jams. With Griffin Jax turning into a pumpkin and some other pitchers struggling in the Twins’ pen, Topa and his kick change will likely be relied upon to throw some crucial innings.