You be the front office and tell us what you’d do to improve the Twins this winter.
Baseball Hall of Famer Rogers Hornsby is credited with one of the more famous quotes about the baseball offseason:
“People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”
Staring out the window and waiting is one way to spend the cold, baseball-less months before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in February. Another way is to play armchair front office decision-maker and tell us how you would handle this offseason if you were in charge of the Twins!
Addressing the Twins’ deficiencies after their stretch run collapse will be no simple undertaking because the 2024-2025 offseason is expected to be heavily influenced by competing financial issues that will limit the front office’s checkbook.
First, the team’s new television deal with MLB, which should expand access to Twins baseball, is expected to be significantly less lucrative than the prior regional sports network setup. Second, the contracts for Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Chris Paddack are structured with significant year-over-year salary increases in 2025. Third, many of the Twins’ young veterans — Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis — will reach arbitration for the first time and are expected to earn healthy salary increases.
Roll those factors together, and there is a good chance the Twins’ payroll is already above the expected 2025 target before any moves to address players departing in free agency or to fortify any weaknesses can be made.
And that’s all to say nothing of any potential impacts that may come about from Pohlad’s intention to sell the team.
*NOTE: In the period between the above image’s posting and the article’s publication, Alex Kirilloff announced his retirement.
Despite that bleak-sounding assessment and the disappointing 82-80 record last season that left a sour taste, Minnesota is returning a strong core that should again be expected to contend in the suddenly formidable AL Central.
Most of the current roster is under contract to return in 2025. Long-time right-fielder Max Kepler will be a free agent, as will first baseman Carlos Santana and lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar. In addition, outfielder/first baseman Alex Kirilloff has retired, and both outfielder Manuel Margot and infielder Kyle Farmer have mutual options with the Twins that seem likely to be declined.
In addition to finding answers for first base and bench hitting depth, new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte will be tasked with coaxing more consistency out of a lineup that produced solid numbers in aggregate but possessed a nasty tendency to run very hot or very cold for weeks at a time.
Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball-Reference
The Twins also need more quality depth for a pitching staff that finished 21st in ERA and significantly wore down late last season. While the emergence of David Festa and Zebby Matthews in the starting rotation and the solid campaign from Simeon Woods-Richardson were bright spots, those shouldn’t be taken as givens to repeat (see: Varland, Louie) and the bullpen lacked enough quality high-leverage options beyond Jax, Duran, and perhaps Cole Sands.
Then there are the evergreen needs for a strong backup center fielder and backup shortstop to weather the inevitable Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa injuries.
In a more macro sense, the Twins roster lacks athleticism and speed. You can see in the 2024 data above that they were terrible at running the bases (a multi-year theme under Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli). They were also one of the poorest defensive clubs, especially after the Buxton and Correa injuries. That’s a major reason the pitching staff’s run prevention numbers under-performed, despite very strong strikeout and walk rates.
The payroll status and expected constraints could mean the winter will be a quiet one, or it might push Derek Falvey to be creative and active in the trade market as they seek to improve. Minnesota possesses one of baseball’s most highly regarded farm systems, a system headlined by Walker Jenkins, a strong candidate to be the top prospect in baseball next season, and Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall, who both figure to spend time at Target Field in 2025. The Twins’ system is also lauded for its depth of potential big league contributors, which might be a useful tool from which to facilitate deals.
Against that backdrop, what would you do this winter? Will you try to bring back Kepler and Santana? Do you believe in José Miranda and Edouard Julien to stay healthy and bounce back? Could they be the answer at first? How will you improve the pitching staff and fortify the roster’s depth?
Below is a guide to the offseason that includes an outline of all the key decisions that need to be made, and links to some useful resources to help with your decisions. We’ve put together a nifty roster template to help you keep track of the players and numbers.
Here are helpful resources for how to make a FanPost (Here is the SB Nation FanPost help guide) so you can write up your plan and tell us what you’re thinking. We’ll promote any off-season plan posts to the front page so everyone can read them.
Happy roster building! We can’t wait to see what you come up with!
[Insert your username]’s Offseason Plan
1. Plan Summary
Give us a sentence or two that let us know what we’re about to see. What kind of plan is this?
2. What is your payroll limit?
Reference: The 2024 payroll was estimated at $130M by FanGraphs. The 2023 payroll was $159M by FanGraphs. 2022 was $142M. 2021 was ~$121M. The 2020 full-season payroll was ~$133M
Dan Hayes’ reporting indicates team sources do not expect additional payroll cuts.
3. 2024 Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Correa – $37.33M
- Pablo López — $21.75M
- Byron Buxton – $15.14M
- Christian Vázquez – $10.0M
- Chris Paddack – $7.5M
- Randy Dobnak — $3.00M
Total Salary Commitment: ~$94.72M
4. 2025 Contract Options
Decide if you will pick up or buy out the contract options for the following players. Briefly explain your reasons.
- Manuel Margot – $12.0M (or $2.0M buyout, which the Rays are responsible for if declined)
- Kyle Farmer — $6.25M (or $0.25M buyout)
- Jorge Alcalá — $1.5M (or $0.055M buyout). Alcala would remain arbitration-eligible if the option is declined.
Total Salary Commitment:
5. Arbitration-eligible
Arbitration salaries are not automatic. The club has the choice to tender a contract to these players or not to offer a contract instead of going to arbitration.
Decide whether or not you will tender a contract to the players below and briefly explain your decisions. Estimated arbitration salaries are from MLBTradeRumors’ Projected Arbitration Salaries based on research and modeling by Matt Schwartz.
- Willi Castro: $6.2M
- Ryan Jeffers: $4.7M
- Bailey Ober: $4.3M
- Joe Ryan: $3.8M
- Jhoan Duran: $3.7M
- Griffin Jax: $2.6M
- Royce Lewis: $2.3M
- Trevor Larnach: $2.1M
- Jorge Alcalá: $1.7M (if option declined)
- Michael Tonkin: $1.5M
- Justin Topa: $1.3M
- Brock Stewart: $0.8M
Total Salary Commitment:
6. Pre-arbitration on the 40-man roster
Under the CBA, players on the active roster earning the MLB minimum salary will be paid $760K ($0.76M) in 2025.
Pitchers (11): Louie Varland, Josh Winder, Ronny Henriquez, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Matt Canterino, Scott Blewett, David Festa, Zebby Matthews
Position Players (10): Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, José Miranda, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Jair Camargo, Yunior Severino, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Michael Helman
7. Free Agents
Use the resources below to identify the free agents you would try to sign. Briefly explain why you would pursue the player(s), the role you see them playing for the Twins, and the terms of your offer (years and total monetary value)
MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent List
8. Trades
What trades would you try to make? Which current Twins would you offer up in trades to other clubs? What players or prospects would you try to get back?
9. Rule 5 Eligible Prospects
If you’re doing the full 40-man exercise, make sure you factor in the addition of Rule 5 draft-eligible prospects who you wish to protect. That could include players like RHP Marco Raya, RHP Travis Adams, OF Kala’i Rosario, LHP Christian MacLeod, IF Rubel Cespedes, and C Ricardo Olivar, among others.
10. Your 26-man (or 40-man) roster
Bring all the parts of your plan together and show us your final roster for 2025. The active roster is capped at 26 players (13 pitchers) and we encourage any over-achievers to sketch it out for the full 40-man roster. Below is a depth chart for you to fill out with your players. If you are playing along with the salary constraints, include your totals. Or, include a screenshot or link to your roster and salary template:
Lineup (#, currently set for 13, but flexible for your plan):
C:
1B:
2B:
3B:
SS:
LF:
CF:
RF:
DH:
BN:
BN:
BN:
BN:
Pitching Staff (#, limited to 13 or fewer)
SP1:
SP2:
SP3:
SP4:
SP5:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:
Total MLB Payroll = ?
Rest of 40-man roster — Optional (14)
27:
28:
29:
30:
31:
32:
33:
34:
35:
36:
37:
38:
39:
40: