Locks
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) NC State +9.5 vs Purdue (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:09 PM CT on TBS
From a strict power rating, analytics, and odds-making perspective, this number should be double digits if not touching 12 points. That’s how much better Purdue is on paper with their body of work than this NC State team is, and the number here reflects that to a certain extent because that’s how spreads are built.
Throw all that out the window though, because we’re not dealing with the NC State team of any point from the regular season – this is postseason Wolfpack basketball. And that version of this team is one that can’t really be quantified, and has to be looked at as a live dog here.
If you’re feeling frisky today, I wouldn’t be mad at sprinkling NC State on the moneyline, but I really do think they keep it close. They have experienced guards to fluster the young and undersized Purdue backcourt. Plus they have the ability in their offense to pull Zach Edey away from the basket, something he hasn’t been forced to do all tournament. As long as NC State doesn’t have to play against the refs tonight, they’ll keep this competitive.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Alabama Team Total Under 74.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:49 PM CT on TBS
In Connecticut’s last loss, and their only one since before Christmas, we saw the singular effective recipe of how to beat them. Creighton was insanely wet from long range in that one, actually cooling down as the game went on to end up shooting 50% from beyond the arc.
That’s the only hope for Alabama here as they know they can’t attack inside, and I’d guess that the Tide would need to sustain even better three-point shooting than that throughout the game to have a chance here. I just don’t think it works out for them, and it should keep Alabama below this team total.
UConn’s defense is actually 28th nationally in opponent three-point percentage and allows well below the national average for per-game three-point production. UConn’s perimeter defense and Stephon Castle in particular have been elite in this tournament, which is why no team has cracked 60 points yet.
And cavernous football stadiums like this one create tough sightlines for a team like Alabama that will rely on jumpshooting. There’s been a lot of talk this week about how the elite Alabama offense will be such a tough test for the mighty Huskies, so Danny Hurley should use that as a motivational tool to get his team to shut the Tide down.
MLB (0.6 Unit) Houston Astros/Texas Rangers Over 9.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network
The Rangers have picked up right where they left off in the World Series, with this offense already in peak form. Their 10 runs last night was the second time in this young season that they’ve scored double digits themselves, and it could easily happen again tonight. The Texas lineup has a cumulative .333 average and .999 OPS against Houston starter JP France, plus the Astros have one of the worst bullpens in the league right now. With Houston’s elite lineup ready to break out against Jon Gray who really struggled in his first start, both teams should contribute to getting this game over the total.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Chicago White Sox @ KC Royals -1.5 (-105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC
The White Sox are just putrid, and it’s only going to get worse. They just lost Luis Robert to the injured list, and with him goes this lineup’s only true power threat. Chicago has scored 13 runs on the season and Robert drove in 4 of them, so I don’t see them being able to support an awful starter taking the mound. That would be Chris Flexen, who gets crushed in short starts like it’s his job. This sneaky Royals lineup is due to break out at any moment, and this would be a likely opportunity against a bad starter and even worse team so I’ll lay the run line tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2185-1978 ATS (+98.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.