Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/LA Clippers Over 227.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBA TV
This Clippers run of 8 wins in their past 9 games has highlighted a lot of the inconsistencies with this team. It’s tough to tell what you’ll get from the defense on a nightly basis, but so far this season they haven’t been able to slow the Thunder very well. OKC has averaged 118.3 points in the three meetings this season, none of which were all that close. LA will want revenge for those losses, and with them hitting their stride lately I think they’ll play better here which raises the scoring floor. And with the Thunder still having some defensive issues pop up, this game should find its way over the total.
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Duke -12 vs Baylor (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:40 PM CT on CBS
It’s one thing to beat Mount St Mary’s on Friday afternoon, but taking on Baylor in this spot is the opportunity for Duke to make their presence felt. Duke has a ton of advantages in this game, but maybe most obvious will be the size disparity. Baylor has only Norchad Omier down low right now, and there’s no way he’ll be able to hold up against the multiple 7-footers Duke can rotate.
The Bears are also a bad three-point defense, ranking 276th in three-point percentage allowed, while also being a perimeter-oriented team going against an elite three-point defense. Duke will be able to score inside and outside at will while shutting off Baylor’s only offensive gameplan, making this statement game for them a runaway.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit Each): Duke/Baylor 1st Half Over 67.5 & Duke/Baylor Over 143.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
If Duke runs Baylor out in this game, it’s going to mean points. That’s how just about all of Duke’s blowout wins down the stretch of the season played out, with the Blue Devils scoring so efficiently that the over is rarely in doubt. That also tends to start early with Duke padding ranking of 5th for first half scoring, so I’m splitting a unit on the overs in both the first half and full game.
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Maryland First Half Team Total Over 35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on TBS
Speaking of teams that score well in the first half, I’m going back to the well with Maryland to have another big opening half. It was not a good start for the Terrapins on Friday as they had just 4 points 7 minutes into the game. But then the power and spurtability of this offense went on display as they still got to 42 by halftime, and this number is offering a discount it shouldn’t be.
Colorado State has a good defense, and actually allowed the 20th-fewest first half points in the country this season. But they allowed over 4 points more to tournament teams in the first half, and allowed Memphis, who isn’t a first half team, to go over this number on Friday. Now that the Terps have found the range and adjusted to the bright lights, I would expect them to have another big opening half tonight.
NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) New Mexico/Michigan St Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on TNT
This is a pretty strange total, set very high for a Michigan State game. The Spartans had the 8th-lowest percentage of their games cash over tickets this season, but one of those rare events should be in store here if the game plays out how it should. New Mexico will be doing Sparty a big favor if they stay true to their style tonight, running the 6th-fastest tempo in the country, then MSU should be able to play in transition as well.
That saves them from having to be a half-court offense and making shots over the Lobos, so I see that significantly boosting the scoring floor for Michigan State. Meanwhile, New Mexico benefits from being a very low-volume three-point shooting team and doesn’t have to force it against the country’s best three-point percentage defense. That will allow the Lobos to thrive as what they naturally are, and that kind of success from both offenses should get this over the suspicious total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.