Locks
NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Like a lot of people, this tournament is killing me. I can’t pick my nose on a straight bet, so the only option is to move the numbers significantly with a teaser, and a 7-point teaser for football moves the numbers 6.5 points in basketball. That’s not typically recommended for basketball, but, desperate times…..
McNeese State +13 vs Purdue: 11:10 AM CT on CBS
I actually like the chances for McNeese State to keep this close in general, but catching this many points for a hungry and dangerous team is too good to pass up. Matt Painter has been good from an ATS perspective in the first couple rounds of the tournament, one big outlier notwithstanding, so I’d much rather pad the points I’m getting with McNeese.
I was very skeptical of the Cowboys and how they’d respond to their coach reportedly jumping ship, but this team has a lot of confidence right now. They can slow this game down and play excellent defense, along with get buckets inside against Purdue’s weak interior defense. That’s a good recipe for staying within double digits, and I expect them to give the Boilermakers a fight.
St John’s -1 vs Arkansas: 1:40 PM CT on CBS
Make no mistake about it, Arkansas has top-tier talent, they’re getting healthier, and they could put a scare into the Red Storm today. St John’s has a habit of starting slowly, so it might be worthwhile looking at the Razorbacks in the first half here, but eventually I think the Johnnies advance. That’s because this game should come down to one drastically lopsided factor which is coaching.
Rick Pitino might be the best in the business, and when he has talented players like this who defend, it’s extremely tough to beat him. Especially if you’re John Calipari, who might be an excellent recruiter but doesn’t have much head coaching value beyond that, so I don’t see him winning this chess match.
Drake +13 vs Texas Tech: 5:10 PM CT on TNT
Upsets happen in this tournament when a more talented team sees something they’re so unaccustomed to that it short circuits them. That’s what Drake is with their tempo that is the slowest in the country, but add in their collective basketball IQ and this team gets really dangerous. Being able to survive shooting 50% from the free throw line in a close game against SEC talent means you’re doing a lot of other things right, and the Bulldogs should continue that level of play here.
Texas Tech does not appear to be healthy, so their advantages in talent and athleticism get neutralized automatically here. And with Drake’s plodding style, I just don’t think there are enough possessions in this game for them to get run out by this big of a margin. This is an elite coaching matchup, and that kind of game rarely turns into a runaway in either direction, so I’ll take this big number of points with the sneaky Bulldogs.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.