Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz/Minnesota Timberwolves First Quarter Over 57 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
I feel like I’m still in an advantage position with first quarter totals like this for a Timberwolves game. It has everything to do with a change in their style, plus getting Julius Randle back into the offense. The Wolves have been playing noticeably faster to me, but books don’t seem to be catching up to the fact that they’re 10-2 over this total since the All-Star break, with 62.8 points on average.
We know full well the Jazz and their league-worst defensive efficiency mark are not going to defend, but I think they still contribute. Minnesota’s first quarter style has meant less defense, evidenced by the offensively-challenged Magic dropping 30 in the first on Friday. So look for both teams to contribute enough to get over a total they’ve eclipsed in both meetings this season.
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter Over 58 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
I would suggest maybe having these games on in the background as you fill out your brackets tonight, because this is another that should bring early fireworks. The Bucks have real trouble stopping teams in the first quarter, ranked 24th in first quarter points allowed. So it’s a tough situation to have the league’s highest-scoring first quarter team in road games come to Milwaukee.
But the Bucks should be able to contribute plenty of points themselves as they’re 4th in first quarter scoring at home. These are two excellent shooting teams that will play up-tempo and take a lot of three’s, plus the stars in this game will get foul calls in a national TV spot, padding this first quarter over with free throws.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UAB/Memphis Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN
There’s an opportunity for bid-thievery here, and I think UAB goes all out to try to make it happen. What I see that meaning is the Blazers playing fast, loose, and using their great offense to take advantage of a Memphis defense that gets lackadaisical at times. The Tigers tend to play to their competition, and that has meant just average defensive efforts against what is a weak AAC this season.
UAB has allowed Memphis to be the pace-setter in both meetings this season though, and that has meant 100 and 88 points out of the Tigers, so there might not be any stopping the Memphis offense, especially if they keep it in the paint. This game doesn’t mean a whole lot of Memphis though as they’re already in the dance, so if they’re not taking it as seriously as they could, defense is where they’ll struggle. I think that means points for UAB, especially as desperation mode sets in, so I’ll look to the over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +67.7 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.