Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Indiana Pacers Over 250 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports IN
Well this is kind of insane. I’m trying to remember taking a higher over than this in my life and I don’t believe I have, but what else can you do in this situation? Not even sharps are jumping on the under here with this total holding steady, and these are definitely two teams you’d want squaring off if you need 250 points.
The league’s top scoring team in Memphis, playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, is not surprisingly second in record to the over this season. Put the Grizzlies on the road and they’re cashing overs at an astounding 77.8% clip, while Indiana is 65.2% to the over at home. The Pacers don’t have quite the offense Memphis does, but I see the Grizzlies driving this game to a crazy tempo and a similar result to the other meeting this season that hit 257 points.
NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks First Half Team Total Over 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MSG
A crazy NBA story heading into the break was Chicago being demolished in consecutive games by Detroit, trailing by 49 at one point in the first game. The Bulls don’t seem to care anymore, especially about defense, as they went into the break allowing 128.3 PPG their last 6 games, including 64.7 in the first halves of those games.
It’s also a little crazy that the Knicks are 0-2 against Chicago this season, so I would expect a maximum effort out of them early in this game to right that wrong. New York has had plenty of offensive success against the Bulls and their 26th-rated defense though, and the Knicks are a freight train offensively when they want to be. With this game profiling as a blowout, I want to bet on the Knicks when their foot will be on the gas so isolate them for this first half total.
NBA (0.75 Unit Each) Charlotte Hornets/Denver Nuggets 1st Quarter Over 55 & 1st Half Over 111 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude
Splitting bets on both these early totals has been working like a charm in Nuggets home games, and this is another instance of an inexplicably low total. It’s mostly to do with Charlotte being awful, which is undeniable even if they shocked the Lakers last night. But Denver plays no defense, especially early in home games, preferring to push tempo and wear out their opponents with help from the elevation.
And it seemed like the Hornets found something offensively last night after leaving their offense in Cancun for the first half. But they were able to shred another poor defense late in that game, and I’m hoping some of that carries over to tonight. Regardless, Charlotte will be gassed for this one going to elevation on no rest, so scoring should be easy and so should reaching these relatively low totals.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Maryland First Half Team Total Over 39 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS1
West coast teams going east has continuously created tough situations for the road team in both football and basketball this season, and USC is no different. The Trojans venture the furthest east they’ve been for tonight’s game, and I think they get another big early number hung on them. So far this season they’ve crossed the Mississippi 4 times, giving up first half totals of 38 to both Indiana and Illinois, 33 to Northwestern, and most recently 48 to Purdue.
Now they face the team that’s 3rd in the country for first half scoring at home, as Maryland averages 43.9 before halftime on their own floor. In Big10 home games they’re still averaging 41.0 first half points, and this is another defense they should be able to dominate. USC has trouble stopping anything inside, and two-pointers are what Maryland lives on. This should also be an up-tempo game so opportunities will be there for the Terps to score, and I think they take advantage of another weary western team.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oregon St/Pepperdine Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Most metrics sites have this game projected right on 146 points, so this total is right in line from that standpoint. But I don’t think enough is being made of the recent form for Oregon State, or how they become a different team away from home. The Beavers have turned into an over machine, cashing over tickets in 14 of their past 16 games. Plus, they have an 8-2 over record on the road this season, thanks mostly to allowing 12.6 PPG more away from home and seeing a big drop in their defensive efficiency.
That will be a big key tonight, as Pepperdine likes to play fast and get to the rim, which I think they can do against a Beavers squad that changes personalities when they hit the road. The Waves are awful defensively though, and have been giving up a ton of points to the quality offenses of the WCC. Oregon State can really shoot and already dropped 83 on the Waves earlier this season. But their good home defense held Pepperdine to just 63 in that game, so their road defensive woes showing up here should send this one over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UC San Diego/Cal Poly Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This should be a three-point contest with Cal Poly driving tempo on their home floor, and that could send the scoring into the stratosphere. UCSD is 13th and Poly is 5th in three-point attempts this season, while the defenses are 223rd and 263rd, respectively, in three-point percentage allowed. San Diego’s defense is otherwise really strong, but the one weakness for the Tritons is going to be pushed to the max tonight.
So is the pace, as Poly will play at their usual insane tempo with the benefit of home court. Given that this matchup produced 163 points in the first meeting with UCSD actually shooting poorly from deep, and there’s only a 2 point adjustment on the total for tonight, I’ll count on style, pace, and some mean reversion to send this one over as well.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +70.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.