Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Northern Illinois @ Akron -20 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game projects as an absolute beatdown in favor of Akron, and I don’t think the Zips will miss their chance to run out one of the worst teams in the whole country. Northern Illinois sits at 346th in KenPom with an offensive efficiency rank of 352nd. The Huskies have one strategy and that’s to go bombs-away from three, but they’re shooting just 30.3% from deep on the road and face a good perimeter defense, so I don’t see those shots dropping tonight.
If they don’t, then this high-octane and high-powered Akron offense will run them off the floor. The Zips regularly hang 90-plus on their home floor, do actually connect on their high volume of three’s, and face a defense that’s 352nd in three-point percentage allowed. The first meeting was a 10-point Akron win on the road where Northern Illinois benefitted from a very generous whistle, but things are about to flip in a lot of ways on the road and it should mean a blowout.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado/Iowa St First Half Over 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is one of the bigger mismatches you can have in the Big12, and my thinking here is that Iowa State putting on a show at Hilton will create a lot of early points. The Clones should have their foot on the gas early, scoring at will against an outmatched Colorado defense allowing 37.9 first half points on the road this season.
But don’t be surprised if ISU doesn’t quite take the Buffaloes seriously tonight as they look ahead to Saturday’s massive trip to Houston. Even though they’re pretty awful, the Buffs at least have been trying down the stretch and should be able to produce enough early on here to help reach this total. I would expect this game to slow down late as the Cyclones salt away the win, so look for the first half to be where the points come from.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Butler/Xavier Over 153 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Peacock
On Saturday I talked about how I saw Butler as vastly improved, and they responded by running out Georgetown. Where the biggest improvement has come from is on offense, as the Bulldogs are up to 41st in adjusted efficiency and have a sneaky group of excellent three-point shooters. Getting everyone healthy and on the same page is why Butler’s past 10 games have gone 9-1 to the over, with a 12-3 mark the past 15 games.
It’s a similar story for Xavier who have cashed 7 straight overs, as their excellent offense has also been on display. This sets up as a three-point contest, with Butler 25th and Xavier 10th in three-point percentage this season, and even a relatively moderate pace won’t hold scoring down if those shots are dropping. These teams are also excellent at getting to the line and cashing in when they get there, so easy free throw points should help get this one over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +72.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.