Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Duke/Virginia First Half Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
The total for this game is on the rise, steaming past metric site projections, but we’re still able to get this very low first half number and that has me jumping in. It’s the type of game where Duke steamrolling the Cavaliers should create a high-scoring affair on accident, and I think that starts early when the Blue Devils will have their foot on the gas the most. As the clear top team in a weak ACC, Duke has made a habit of jumping on their outmatched opponents early, especially on the road.
Their conference games have averaged 70.1 first half points, with an 11-4 record over this total, mostly thanks to the Blue Devils doing the bulk of the scoring. Virginia is definitely not the defense they once were, so the Duke freight train should roll over them like it has the other ACC weaklings. The Cavaliers can shoot surprisingly well though, especially from deep which is the focus of their offense, and Duke’s three-point defense is their one weakness. So I see both teams contributing plenty of points to reach this very low total tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas St +1.5 @ Utah (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
There were two results from Saturday’s Big12 action that really surprised me: Kansas State getting smacked by BYU and Utah handling Kansas. So that sets up an interesting situational spot between the Utes and Wildcats tonight, and I expect the pendulum to swing back quite a bit.
Utah finds themselves in the classic letdown spot after that big win, which I see as a failure of Kansas more than a success by Utah anyway. The Utes have had other surprising wins in conference play this season, and followed them up with disappointments so I’ll maintain that they’re not good enough yet to compete with elite Big12 talent.
Kansas State meanwhile should bounce back, as they are not as bad as they looked on Saturday when cold early shooting got them in a big hole. This is also the second leg of the elevation road trip, something they’re not used to but has seen teams play far better in the second game than the first. This is still one of the hottest teams in the country, and getting this kind of number on them is worth taking when I expect them to return to form.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona/Baylor Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
This is an interesting schematic matchup that I think favors points. Just like Kansas State, this Arizona team needs a return to the form that got them back into the conference and national title discussion. The Wildcats are a team with a ton of size that wants to score inside, and tonight they’re up against arguably the thinnest front line in the Big12 after Baylor lost Josh Ojianwuna for the season. So that should allow Arizona to rack up easy points in the paint tonight, but I think they give up plenty as well.
The Ojianwuna injury forces Baylor to be even more perimeter oriented, which isn’t much of a problem given their stable of elite guards. The Bears shooting a ton of three’s tonight would be a smart plan against a Wildcats squad allowing a troubling amount of three-point production. So with both teams finding offensive success in their own ways, plus a likely tight game creating free throw points late, I’m expecting this one to sneak over the high total tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +72.3 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.