Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Creighton Team Total Under 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on FS1
This is a big situational spot for St John’s and I think they respond by leaning on what they do best. That would be defense, and after it failed them in a tough loss at Villanova this week, I think the Red Storm will bounce back today. Villanova took advantage of the one minor crack in the St John’s defense which is 3-point shooting, but I see that going differently today.
Creighton shoots a lot of three’s, but is not nearly as proficient as they once were or Villanova is this season. Plus, this game is in Madison Square Garden where sightlines will be more difficult for the Creighton shooters. And St John’s has already handled the Jays once this season, holding them to just 57 points on the road albeit in a losing effort. This is still the nation’s second-best defense by adjusted efficiency and should be maniacal on that end of the court today, so I see them holding their biggest competition for the conference crown under this number.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Maryland First Half Team Total Over 40.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on FS1
My family roots in Maryland and my hatred of the Hawkeyes as an Iowa State alum have me very interested in this game. But I promise there’s no bias here, just looking fairly at numbers that tell me Maryland is in for a big opening half today.
The Terps aren’t getting enough credit out there, as this team’s analytics profile is elite and they should show it today. They have a great matchup for their dependence on interior scoring as Iowa comes in ranked 340th in two-point percentage defense, and allow the 22nd-highest split of production via the two. Maryland’s ability to attack the hoop in transition is going to be a nightmare for the Hawkeyes since they should be forced into a lot of tough jump shots by the Terrapin defense.
What it really boils down to though is the fact that Maryland is up to 3rd in the country for scoring before halftime, averaging 43.7 points on their home floor. That’s also the perfect matchup with Iowa coming to town, as they’re allowing 42.2 first half points on the road this season which is the 7th-most nationally. That number jumps to 45.2 in Big10 road games, so look for the Terps to have a big first half today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +72.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.