Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wisconsin @ Purdue -3 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Purdue gets fired up for these kinds of games like few other teams in the country, and I think they ride a wave of emotion and hot shooting to early success today. Being visited by a fellow Big10 contender on national TV always gets the Boilermakers and the Mackey crowd riled up, and this is a bounce back spot for Purdue after they fell at Michigan this week. So the spot sets up perfectly for the Boilermakers to leverage their plus-11.5 average first half margin that’s 17th-best in the country.
And I also think the matchup favors the home squad here against a Wisconsin team that has struggled with slow starts on the road. The Badgers want to live behind the arc and at the free throw line, but they’re up against a top-30 three-point defense and are not going to get the benefit of foul calls at Mackey today. The Badgers also don’t have the best perimeter defense, so if the Purdue shooters come out hot like they usually do at home, Wisconsin should find themselves behind by a decent margin at halftime.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Georgetown @ Butler -1.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 1:00 PM CT on FS1
I’m in the camp that believes Butler is a very good team that’s finally putting things together and will be a factor down the stretch. The Bulldogs have had a lot of bad breaks and injury issues, but this team is playing at a high level right now and you can take advantage of short numbers like this one. It’s a revenge game after Butler lost at Georgetown just two weeks ago in a game where the Bulldogs held a halftime lead. There’s nothing fancy here in the analysis, just an eye test and momentum bet, so I’m backing Butler early in this one.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) UConn First Half Team Total Over 35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on FOX
One of the most profitable angles in college hoops right now is fading Seton Hall early in games, but more specifically fading their atrocious defense. The Pirates are getting shredded right out of the gates in Big East games, allowing 38.1 first half points and seeing their opponents go 9-4 over this total. And now here comes UConn, with a fire lit under them by Danny Hurley after they dropped from the top-25 rankings this week and eager to show a national TV audience why they’re the two-time defending champs.
A Pirates team that has been extremely shorthanded lately will not be able to hold up against the onslaught if UConn has the pedal to the metal like I expect them to. The Huskies still have the country’s 12th-best offensive efficiency mark, and should be able to drain plenty of three’s against a bad perimeter defense. The one concern is UConn’s slower pace, but an angry Huskies team cancels that out and they should score at will today.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Auburn/Alabama Over 172.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN
For once, the hype merchants are right – this is the game of the year so far. I say so far because they still have another regular season meeting, will likely meet in the SEC tournament, and could easily see each other in April. What I think that actually does is lower the stakes a bit, letting both teams play more freely, and when these teams do that it means nothing but offense.
Yeah, this is a sky-high total, but what are you supposed to do when the top two offenses in the country get together? Let’s not forget that the Tide have crossed the century mark 7 times this season including 4 in SEC play. That’s ridiculous offense, but Auburn actually comes into this game with the higher-rated offense, so this game should be an efficiency extravaganza. Add in Alabama driving tempo on their home floor and matchup issues playing the best interior defenders off the floor, and this game should erupt.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) West Georgia/Bellarmine Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Who wants to play some defense? Not these teams, as West Georgia is currently ranked 334th in adjusted defensive efficiency and Bellarmine is 3rd-worst in the entire country. Bellarmine owns the bottom spot nationally in opponent effective field goal rate, and can be score on by anyone from anywhere on the floor.
Even by a West Georgia team whose offense is not particularly good, but the Wolves know who they are and consistently get to the rim. That should mean plenty of easy points inside while Bellarmine tallies three’s against a very poor perimeter defense for UWG. This won’t be an up-tempo track meet, and the offenses are nothing special, but defense this bad means plenty of points and I’m seeing a game in the 150’s here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Cal Poly/CSU Northridge Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The Big West does not feature a ton of high-octane offensive teams that play up-tempo styles. There are only two of them really, and it’s these two, who happen to play at two of the more insane paces in the whole country. Cal Poly is 3rd in adjusted tempo this season with the shortest average possession length, while Northridge is 8th in both categories, so this game will be a blur.
It doesn’t particularly matter how efficient the offenses are when there will be that many possessions, but these are two squads who happen to shoot it fairly well. For Poly that’s three’s, and they’re facing a CSUN defense that’s bottom-10 in three-point production allowed. Northridge also can’t guard without fouling, with the 10th-most fouls per possession so free throws will add a lot of points too. But Poly won’t guard anything, especially not inside where Northridge likes to attack, so I’m seeing a ton of easy points and maybe a repeat of the first meeting that hit 193 points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas St +6.5 @ BYU (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I just don’t know why you would give this many points to the hottest team in college basketball. I realize how tough Provo can be at night, but this Kansas State team is playing excellent and inspired ball right now. All that talent finally seems to be gelling under Jerome Tang’s elite coaching, and their wins are coming over some of the best teams in the country.
That is not how I would characterize BYU even though they do have some elite shooting. But any kind of off night from deep for the Cougars against an excellent K-State perimeter defense puts BYU in a tough spot, and it’s impossible to bury this Wildcats team right now anyway. Looking at the full body of work for these teams I’d say this is a fair number, but the recent run for K-State isn’t factored into this line enough and that has me taking the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Montana Team Total Over 78.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m still not sure what went wrong for Montana’s offense during a four-game stretch in mid-January where they averaged just 63.3 points per game. This is too good of a shooting team for that to have continued, and they’ve bounced back with 84.8 PPG in the six game since. One of those uncharacteristic performances came against Weber State who they’ll have another chance against tonight, and I think they continue to right the ship here.
Weber did not hold the Grizzlies to 63 points in that game because of strong defense, as the Wildcats are 313th in adjusted defensive efficiency. So if Montana wants to continue erasing the memory of that ugly stretch like they’ve been doing recently, I’m confident they’ll get into the 80’s tonight as most metrics sites are projecting.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +72.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.