Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers/Utah Jazz Over 225 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SC
Two teams playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, with at least one having traveled, is always a spot I’m looking to find a lack of defense. But put that spot on the night before the All-Star break and there’s an even greater potential for points. The vast majority of these rosters will be thinking “Cancun on 3” all night, especially the Jazz who have all of zero representation in the All-Star game.
These teams have already met three times this season, going 2-1 to this total with 237.3 points on average, mostly thanks to the Clippers being able to score at will against the league’s worst team for defensive efficiency. I’m having a tough time picturing that defense putting in a strong effort with vacation on their minds, so I think the line movement is right and we’ll see an over in this one.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Montana Team Total Over 74.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is a big revenge game for Montana, whose offense has been a big surprise in the Big Sky, and I think that creates a higher-scoring game. The Grizzlies have really turned things around behind a red-hot offense, winning 6 in a row and scoring 82.8 PPG after a blowout loss at Idaho State. They can exact their revenge here against a struggling defense for the Bobcats, who tend to get into higher-scoring games against their more offense-oriented opponents.
Idaho State tends to allow very short possessions, so plenty of opportunity will be there for Montana who is shooting at an elite level this season, ranked 28th in effective field goal rate. With how this offense has been trending and their desire to get revenge on their home floor, I see the Grizzlies putting up a big number tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oregon St/Portland Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m very surprised to see this total where it is given the first meeting between these teams saw 168 points. It would not be a shock to see a similar result tonight given how Oregon State has played this season, with a tendency to forget their defense at home.
The Beavers have great defensive numbers in Corvallis but that really falls off when they hit the road, and the result has been a 7-2 over record on the road. Except they were already exposed at home by this Portland offense, who put up the second-most points in Corvallis to only Gonzaga this season. So I would expect the Pilots to have minimal drop-off in their production, and that puts this total squarely in play.
But Portland can’t stop anything either, ranked 334th in adjusted defensive efficiency and owning the 6th-worst three-point percentage defense in the country. They’ve allowed 85.2 PPG in WCC play this season including 87.8 in their conference home games, so anything close to that from a top-50 Beavers offense and this game flies over the fairly low total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +71.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.