Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 216.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
What a run by Portland here as they are starting to sniff the postseason after 10 wins in their past 11 games. The biggest thing that has turned around for the Blazers is the offense, as their efficiency and rating have jumped significantly, and the result is them averaging 113.5 PPG in these 11 games. That’s a big deal for a team averaging just 109.0 for the season, and helps to put a very low total like this in play.
And the Wolves have shown issues with slowing this Blazers squad even before they hit this hot streak, particularly Anfernee Simons. With Anthony Edwards in one of his superhuman zones, the Wolves have been scoring like crazy and have been hot at home, so they’ll contribute theirs on the way to getting over this total.
NBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Washington Wizards Over 236 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT
I really can’t believe this total, especially the movement down from where I expected it to sit north of 240 points, so keep an eye out for injury report shenanigans. But as of now, the most important names like Trae Young and Jordan Poole are not listed, so this game should play out just like the other meetings this season. Those have all hit 240 or more points, with 246.3 on average, and I think an underappreciated key has been the Wizards scoring at least 117 in every meeting.
With a bad team like Washington able to score consistently against the poor Hawks defense, that makes all things possible because the Wizards aren’t in the business of stopping anything. Both teams were also active at the deadline this week and may not have all their new pieces available, shortening the rotations and tiring out the legs on defense. Add in that these are both top-5 teams in pace, and they’re both on the second leg of a back-to-back, and I see this number getting cleared with ease.
NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder/Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter Over 60 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
When Memphis is involved, points are coming early, and it’s always nice to partner with another high-scoring team to reach numbers like this one. The Grizzlies are leading the NBA in first quarter scoring behind their league-high pace, and OKC checks in at 4th in first quarter points. Their first meeting this season saw 65 points in the opening quarter, and this game is eerily similar to that one. At least for the situational spot that the Thunder are in, as that was also the second leg of a back-to-back, so their excellent defense will again not be as strong. These two elite offenses in an up-tempo game is a recipe for points, and I don’t think this first quarter number is aligned well enough with that expectation.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Houston/Colorado First Half Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Something is off about the Houston defense, as they’ve been unreliable early in games lately. I can’t put my finger on what exactly it is, but the result has been a lot of higher-scoring opening halves in their games. I think another one is coming here, since that has been the trend for Colorado, especially at home where their more up-tempo style at elevation strains visiting teams.
And if they play that style against Houston, the Cougars will do a lot of the scoring needed to reach this total thanks to run-outs. The Buffaloes are 352nd in taking care of the basketball and face a Houston team that forces a ton of turnovers. I think Houston converts those easy points as part of a higher-scoring first half, before things slow down late which has been the theme of recent Cougars games. That puts a very low first half total well within reach today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +69.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.