Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz Team Total Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK
Win or lose, the Jazz are always getting into the 120’s at home. In fact they’re now the league’s 4th-highest scoring team in home games, averaging 123.9 PPG thanks to their recent run of 9 straight home games going over this team total. Utah is also 2-0 over this team total against the Thunder this season, including 129 points just a couple weeks ago at home.
It helps that the Jazz are 10-4 ATS as home underdogs like they are tonight, as that means they’re always in it to the finish. They should be able to score at a high rate again tonight against a lot of backups for an injury-plagued OKC squad, so I like this number that’s a lot lower than we’ve seen in recent Jazz games.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ole Miss @ South Carolina -3.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on SEC Network
South Carolina finally cracked the top-25, and I’m buying the hype on this team. They are not exciting or glamorous, but they play as hard as any team in the country and are outstanding defensively. Finally seeing a ranking next to their name after some high-profile wins could be a distraction tonight, but I don’t see their coach Lamont Paris allowing that to creep in here.
This has been a very disciplined team all season, and they have a favorable matchup here against an Ole Miss team that struggles on the road. A raucous environment in Columbia will help slow down a Rebels team that hasn’t been able to handle the top-level competition in the SEC, so look for the Gamecocks to win by margin tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Clemson/UNC Under 154.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
This feels like a bit of a letdown spot for North Carolina after a big win over Duke this past weekend. That’s probably most likely to show up in the form of shooting regression after the Heels shot the lights out on Saturday night, especially from deep. Against a defensive-minded Clemson team that knows how to grind games down, Carolina should come back to earth offensively.
But the Tigers aren’t likely to erupt on offense either, as they’ve been brutal from long range this season and UNC is one of the best perimeter defenses in the country. Usually Clemson’s solution to that is to go inside with PJ Hall, but that didn’t work in the first meeting against Armando Bacot’s excellent defense. That meeting only saw 120 total points, so this adjustment is too drastic for two teams that are a combined 15-6 under this total in ACC play.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Oklahoma St @ Houston -11.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I would not want to have been in a Houston practice the past couple days after they allowed Kansas to shoot an insane 68.9% from the floor and 46.2% from deep. That’s about as big of an outlier as you’re going to see against a Houston defense that is still the best in the country. A couple good cures for that is returning home and facing the worst team in the conference as Oklahoma State comes to town.
I would not be surprised to see Houston hold the Cowboys to some ridiculously low first half output in this bounce-back spot. They are the country’s best first half scoring defense, holding visiting opponents to 19.9 points on average, and they have the best average first half margin in home games at plus-17.8 points. Oklahoma State is extremely reliant on three-pointers, and when those aren’t falling against an elite perimeter defense like Houston’s it’s easy to get buried in a hurry. I see that happening here in a major bounce-back spot for the home team.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa St/Texas Over 138.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Longhorn Network
This total has been coming down a little, which is concerning since every metrics site I trust is saying we’ll see a game in the 140’s tonight. But I’m going to take the discount here because I think both defenses, while strong, are going to struggle a little here. Iowa State has been elite defensively this season, but that defense doesn’t always travel with them outside of Ames as their 4 conference road games have averaged 144.0 points.
If there’s a big weakness to the Cyclone defense it’s the three-ball that they’re just 214th in defending. This Texas team has shown a much bigger willingness to let it fly from deep in recent games, helping them to an 8-1 record over this total in Big12 play. But the Longhorns are even worse at defending the three, so an ISU team with plenty of shooters should benefit. This should also be a tight game with free throws late and the potential for OT, so I’ll trust the projections saying this one gets over the low total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Mary’s/Pacific Under 130 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2
If you’re having trouble sleeping tonight, I’d suggest turning on this game. Saint Mary’s will bring one of the slowest brands of basketball you can find, while Pacific will bring one of the ugliest. The Gaels defense is one of the best in the country, ranked 14th by adjusted efficiency and only allowing 58.6 PPG in WCC play.
That includes holding this Pacific team to a ridiculous 28 points in the first meeting, and while the Tigers have played better since, it hasn’t been against great defenses. Pacific is one of the worst shooting and rebounding teams in the country, meaning the Gaels will be able to impose their 358th adjusted tempo on this game. It’s also a let-down spot for St Mary’s after winning at Gonzaga this weekend, so expect struggles to score from both teams tonight.
Degenerates
NHL Edmonton Oilers @ Vegas Golden Knights ML (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I don’t know much about the NHL or hockey in general; I think it’s played on ice or something. But a whole lot has been made in the sports world about this Oilers team looking to tie a record winning streak tonight. They’ve had the entire All-Star break to think about it, and are playing in the most distracting city in the country against a really good team. If I know sports, it’s situations like this that see a team trip up, and if I know sports betting it’s on a line that’s inflated due to the story. I’ll take a shot here at a plus-money return that all streaks come to an end.
Tiny Nick is 2019-1818 ATS (+97.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.