Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
LA Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles -0.5: 2:00 PM CT on NBC
Give the Rams credit for last week’s domination of Minnesota, but it ends here against an elite opponent. Aside from their beatdown of the fraudulent Vikings, this LA squad has faced two playoff teams since before Halloween, letting Buffalo hang 42 and this Eagles team put up 37 on them. So things get exceedingly more difficult from a competition standpoint here, and the situational spot does them no favors either. After last week’s weird travel and all the concerns about the fires, LA now has to go cross-country for a snow game in freezing temperatures. With the Eagles able to push them around behind dominant fronts on both sides of the ball, I think this is similar to the discrepancy we saw between these teams in Week 12 as Philly advances.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills +7.5: 5:30 PM CT on CBS
You’re telling me I can get more than a touchdown with a team that hasn’t been a home underdog in the playoffs since 1967? That it’s also a spot where I could benefit from a Lamar Jackson playoff road game? I like that kind of number, especially when the Ravens have a habit of not covering big numbers. This game is lined extremely tight, with no team being more than a 1.5 point favorite at any point this week, so it’s not difficult to envision a game where it’s won on the final play. This will be a back-and-forth MVP-off between Jackson and Josh Allen, so I’ll take the big number of points I can get on this adjusted line.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 19.5 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Ove 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)
0.5 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Keon Coleman Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Amari Cooper Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)
0.25 Unit – Lamar Jackson Anytime TD (+190)
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Orlando Magic Under 221.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Altitude
This will be a contrast in styles, with Denver wanting to play fast and focus on their excellent offense. Orlando meanwhile plays at the slowest pace in the league and has the worst offensive rating, but the second-best defensive rating. The Nuggets also have one of the better over records, while the Magic have one of the league’s best under records and the lowest plus/minus to the total this season.
But even if Denver and their style dictate this game, Orlando just can’t keep up with how injured they are. Too many key contributors won’t be available, and another game of them struggling to score is likely here as Orlando has averaged just 96.5 PPG the past 12 games with the injury bug hitting hard. With Orlando not able to add much to this total, I see it staying under regardless of the kind of night Denver has.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Wizards/Sacramento Kings Over 234.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
This Kings team is a little confusing to me as they’ve had some serious peaks and valleys this season. But I think a peak, especially offensively, is coming against a Wizards team that has completely abandoned the defensive end of the court. Not only does Washington rank dead last in defensive rating and efficiency, they’re doing it in style lately by allowing 125.8 PPG during this 9-game losing streak. The Kings can and should take advantage of that complete lack of defensive effort, especially with their offense seemingly hitting its stride lately. With both of these teams having positive ROI’s to the over this season, I’ll count on another elite offense versus no defense game to get pushed over the big total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +75.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.