Locks
NFL (0.25 Unit) Houston Texans +6 First Half @ Kansas City Chiefs (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on ABC
This might be dumb, as the Chiefs might roar out of their extended time off and rip Houston a new one. I’m fully aware of that possibility, but I’m also thinking that maybe, just maybe, not having played since Christmas might put some rust on Patrick Mahomes and this KC squad.
It’s not like they do anything but get into tight games where they find a way to win, and to be clear I’m not calling for any kind of actual upset today. But Houston is the best first half ATS team in the league this season at 14-4, while falling squarely on their faces in the second half at 5-13 ATS. So if the Texans are going to make this competitive at all I think it happens early, and I like this sizable number of points.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Texans/Chiefs 2nd Half Under 19.5 (+105; Odds via Fanduel)
Ok, so if the Texans are awful in second halves from a spread perspective, then they obviously have trouble scoring which checks out as they’re 25th in second half points per game. Kansas City happens to rank 23rd in the same category, while also ranking 9th in second half points allowed. That’s part of why their games the past two seasons have gone 28-10 to the second half under. If they have a late lead like they should, and have a tough AFC Championship on deck, look for the Chiefs to slow things down and grind out an ugly second half.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Washington Commanders Team Total Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX
It seems obvious that if the Commanders are to have any shot at shocking the world tonight, they would need to win a high-scoring game. Detroit’s offense with time to prepare and getting David Montgomery back is going to be a machine, especially against a Washington squad that really struggles to stop the run. And the Lions defense has not been great down the stretch of the season either.
Take out the flop by Minnesota’s offense in the “game of the year” and Detroit allowed 30.0 PPG in the other 5 games to close the season, with two of those games against the anemic Bears who scored 20 and 17 points. There are problems in the back end of this Lions defense and a rookie quarterback who grows more confident every day, playing with nothing to lose, should find the holes. Washington can also lose a high-scoring game, or get blown out 42-24 and still get over this total, and I think they do.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Alt Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (+120)
0.25 Unit – Travis Kelce Alt Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (+200)
1 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dalton Schultz Alt Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+150)
0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (+125)
1 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 18.5 Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Jayden Daniels Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dyami Brown Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dyami Brown Alt Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+180)
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Arizona/Texas Tech First Half Over 71 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This should be a higher-scoring game in general, but I’m focusing on the first half here between two squads who love to get it going right away. This should be a typical Texas Tech home game with a wild first half, as the Red Raiders rank 14th in first half scoring in home games. Arizona meanwhile scores the 7th-most points before halftime in the country, and their offense is on the rise.
The Wildcats are kind of a forgotten squad after some ugly early season losses, but after a 7-game winning streak and 5-0 start in Big12 play, they seem to be on the right track. Especially offensively as Tommy Lloyd can always be counted on for that, and UA is up to 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also play very fast, and will create extra opportunities for another excellent offense for Tech, who is top-10 in efficiency, effective field goal rate, and three-point shooting. I see this one going up and down the court early, so look for it to get over this relatively low total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) South Dakota St First Half Team Total Over 42.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:15 PM CT on Summit League Network
Last time South Dakota State took the floor, I pointed out how they were in need of an offensive bounce back on their home court. Well they certainly didn’t disappoint, dropping 109 points on North Dakota including 59 before halftime. I think the momentum of that carries over into today, especially with such an awful defense visiting Brookings.
Oral Roberts brings the country’s 5th-worst defense by adjusted efficiency into this game, and have been getting shredded by every offense in the Summit League. If the Jacks are motivated to put it on ORU, then the Golden Eagles will stand no chance. What better team to back in the first half at home than the nation’s top first-half scoring team in home games, as SDSU is averaging 47.8 in their own building, went over this number in both conference home games so far, and should again today.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Gonzaga First Half Team Total Over 42.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
It’s not often Gonzaga loses a WCC game, even if it’s to a former PAC12 squad in Oregon State that’s new to the league. But history tells us that when it does happen, and the Bulldogs return home the next game, we get the angry version of them. That’s the situation for tonight, and they have a Santa Clara team coming into The Kennel that I think can be taken advantage of.
Gonzaga is an extremely consistent first half scoring team, ranking 4th overall in first half points per game and averaging 42.8 at home, although venue hasn’t mattered much for them. Their pace has been steadily high this season, but in this bounce back spot I think it gets dialed to the next level. Santa Clara will have no problem getting into an up-tempo game, and I think their defense is in trouble because of that as they struggle inside and the Zags will want to score a lot in transition. Gonzaga’s offense is now 4th nationally in adjusted efficiency, and if they put the pedal down in this game, they should hang a big number before halftime.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +72.1 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.