The 11-1 Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record. With a surging offense and an opportunistic defense, Detroit is the team to beat in the NFC. Still, the 4-8 Chicago Bears may have bested them last week had Matt Eberflus not put on whatever is the opposite of a masterclass in clock management.
Fresh off eating turkey legs on Thanksgiving, the Green Bay Packers are 9-3 and have a much-anticipated rematch with the Lions on Thursday night. Fortunately for the Packers, Chicago laid out a blueprint for beating the Lions; the Packers just need to finish the job.
First, let’s look back at Green Bay’s first meeting with Detroit. The Lions dominated from start to finish, and the Packers played poorly on offense. The final score was 24-14, but the Lions put the game out of reach by halftime.
Detroit used pressure to keep the Packers from running the ball and force Jordan Love to make mistakes. Love threw an errant pick-six that set the Packers back for the rest of the game.
Against Detroit, the Bears did a good job controlling possession and not turning the ball over. While the Lions jumped out to a 16-0 lead, the Bears methodically crawled back, giving themselves a chance to win.
Green Bay has won three times and corrected some of the mistakes it made against the Lions since that loss. Like last year, the Packers can clean up their mistakes to beat Detroit. Three key areas of improvement will help them overcome the new bullies of the NFC.
Get Penalties Under Control
The last time Green Bay played the Lions, the Packers were flagged for 10 penalties for 67 yards, including numerous false starts that continually put them behind the chains. If Green Bay can just cut the penalty numbers in half, some drives that ended in punts or turnovers on downs could be field goals or touchdowns.
The Packers still lead the NFL in drop percentage at 6.8% (league average is 3.4%), compounding their offensive issues. Little mistakes have plagued them, which is a big reason why the offense has not had more success.
However, Romeo Doubs has been their most reliable wideout, and he returned to practice this week. He has a chance to play against the Lions. Before getting injured, Doubs was a crucial third-down target for Love. If Doubs can return, his connection with Love will be a huge boon against Detroit’s aggressive secondary.
Don’t Turn the Ball Over
In the first meeting between the teams, Green Bay’s defense only allowed 17 points. The Lions scored 24 points, but Love’s pick-six at the end of the first half was back-breaking.
Had Love not thrown that interception, the Packers could have driven down the field and scored a touchdown to tie the game at halftime. At least, they could have kept it within one score for Green Bay. Instead, Love’s reckless decision resulted in the Lions leading by two scores at halftime.
Love has had issues with interceptions this season, but he’s been better lately. Against the San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago, Love played his first full game without throwing a pick. He kept that streak going against the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving.
Force Turnovers
The Bears didn’t capitalize on Jahmyr Gibbs’ fumble. However, Chicago’s stop prevented the Lions from going up three scores before halftime.
Green Bay’s defense has been one of the best in the NFL at taking the ball away. They capitalized against the Niners, scoring 21 points on two fumbles and an interception.
In Detroit’s only loss of the season, they lost the turnover battle, with quarterback Jared Goff throwing two interceptions. On the other hand, the Lions won a game in which Goff threw five. That is to say that Goff can be reckless, and Green Bay’s defense has the opportunity to make plays.
Run the Ball
In Green Bay’s recent victories, Josh Jacobs has been stellar. With five touchdowns in his last three games, he’s been crucial for the Packers offense in his first year with the team. Jacobs’ hard running allowed them to control the game and keep the clock running for long drives.
The Packers shifted away from the run game against the Lions, forcing Love to throw it 39 times the last time the two teams played. Attacking through the air can unlock Green Bay’s offense. However, it allows Detroit’s defense to take the ball away more easily.
Keep the ball in Jacobs’ hands. Good things will happen. That’s never been more true than now.
The Packers have a tall task this Thursday. The Lions are 11-1 for a reason. But if the Packers can clean up their mistakes from the last game, run the ball well, and win the turnover battle, they may find themselves on the winning side of this NFC North clash.
All stats and data via ESPN, Green Bay Packers, and PFF unless otherwise noted.