Do you hear what I hear? No, not Santa coming down the chimney, but the sound of the Green Bay Packers punching their ticket to the playoffs! With the first shutout in the NFL this season, the Packers are officially playoff-bound for the fifth time in Matt LaFleur’s six seasons.
With the playoffs clinched and the NFC North division title out of reach, the Packers enter the final two weeks with little to play for outside of seeding. They can finish as the fifth, sixth, or seventh seed in the single-elimination tournament.
One of the most critical factors in this win – and Green Bay’s playoff berth with two weeks to go – has been Josh Jacobs’ outstanding first season in Green Bay. So, should LaFleur and Co. limit Jacobs’ snaps until the playoffs begin?
With one broken tackle after another, Jacobs has been a tone-setter for Green Bay’s offense all season. That trend continued Monday night when Jacobs finished with 69 yards on 13 carries and a touchdown. He added four receptions for 38 yards despite essentially playing only the first half after leaving with a minor injury. Monday night’s performance brought his season totals to 1,216 yards on 278 carries and 13 touchdowns.
Over the past few weeks, the Packers have set the tone early and often against their opponents, using Jacobs as the focal point. Jacobs has been Green Bay’s offensive hammer immediately after kickoff. The first eight offensive plays went through Jacobs against the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday, setting the Packers up for a touchdown and never looking back.
On Monday night against the Saints, Jacobs racked up 85 yards from scrimmage on Green Bay’s first two offensive drives, which resulted in touchdowns. The Packers have focused on getting Jacobs going early; he leads the NFL in first-quarter rushes. The Packers want him to wear down the opposing defense immediately with his physical, downhill running style.
Still, with two games to go against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17 and the Chicago Bears in the season finale, should the Packers continue pounding the ball with Jacobs? Or should they give some opportunities to their reserve ballcarriers?
We got a sneak peek of what that might look like Monday night when the Packers held Jacobs out after he got banged up in the third quarter. If what we saw is any indication, they may not miss a beat.
The tandem of Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks, each second-year undrafted free agents, kept things going with 75 combined yards on 17 carries and a touchdown each. With all three backs hitting paydirt in the same game, it marked the first time a trio of Packers running backs scored in the same game since 2009, when Ahman Green, Ryan Grant, and Brandon Jackson did so against the Seattle Seahawks in a late-December matchup. Wilson and Brooks ran hard in Jacobs’ absence, showing they can carry the offense for a stretch if Jacobs needs a break.
The idea of resting key players often comes up this time of year once teams clinch the playoffs. On his podcast last week, Matt LaFleur discussed possibly resting players, specifically Jacobs. He said, “Once we lock it up and have an idea of what’s gonna happen, you can kind of plan for that.”
Even without Jacobs getting banged up, the Packers decided to limit his workload at halftime on Monday night. When asked about it after the game, LaFleur said, “He wanted to go back in, but there was no need for it. I actually told him at halftime, ‘We’re gonna give you another series in the second half, but I want to get you out.’ It being a short week, we want to get him ready for Minnesota.”
That was the correct decision against an inferior opponent with the game wrapped up.
But does it make sense to limit Jacobs in the final two weeks, even with a crucial divisional matchup against the Vikings looming on Sunday and the Bears the following weekend?
If they win out, the Packers have a chance to move up to the fifth seed. Suppose they take the safe approach, resting some players and losing the final two games. In that case, there’s a chance they could fall to the seventh and final playoff seed, potentially facing the Detroit Lions or Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round. That would be a much tougher ask in the first round of the playoffs compared to facing the Los Angeles Rams, Atlanta Falcons, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Assuming Jacobs is good to go for Sunday against the Vikings and isn’t dealing with any lingering issues from Monday, he’ll likely be in line for his usual workload. The Packers would love nothing more than to march into Minnesota and ruin their chance at the top seed.
However, the following week against the Bears should be a different story. Win or lose on Sunday in Minnesota, the Packers will likely finish as the sixth seed, so they probably won’t need Jacobs to beat the hapless Bears, who are just eager for the season to end. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jacobs doesn’t suit up in Week 18, and it’s the Wilson and Brooks show.
There have also been rumblings that we might see rookie MarShawn Lloyd this season once he’s healed from his latest injury. That could factor into the decision, assuming the Packers want to get him involved before deciding his role in the playoffs.
Jacobs is tied for third in the NFL in touches with Derrick Henry. He’s no stranger to a heavy workload, and now isn’t the time to stop. Sitting at 313 touches this season, Jacobs is unlikely to eclipse his career-high of 393 from his rushing champion season of 2022 with the Las Vegas Raiders, but he could come close.
The Packers swapped out Aaron Jones for Jacobs mainly due to the volume that Jacobs could handle and their desire to lean on their running game. The 2024 season has proven to be his second-most productive in terms of touches across his six-year career, and arguably his most impactful.
As the leader of one of the NFL’s top offenses — and as legit Super Bowl contenders — this offense needs Jacobs at full strength for any real chance of representing the NFC in Super Bowl LIX, and they’ll need him as fresh as possible.