On Wednesday, the Green Bay Packers designated tight end Luke Musgrave to return to practice as they prepared for their Sunday night showdown against the Seattle Seahawks.
Musgrave first injured his ankle in Week 4 against the Minnesota Vikings. It initially looked like he would try and play through the injury when he suited up the following week against the Los Angeles Rams. Matt LaFleur confirmed that Musgrave and the team ultimately opted for surgical repair on the ankle a few weeks after, and updates on his status have been mum up until this announcement.
It’s still uncertain how much he’ll play against Seattle. However, his return down the stretch and into the playoffs is a welcome sight for Green Bay’s offense.
Still, Musgrave has underperformed after the Packers selected him in the second round of the 2023 draft. The Oregon State product was raw coming into the NFL because injuries disrupted his college career. He only appeared in two games in his final college season, and the injury trend has followed him to the NFL.
During his rookie season, he played 11 games after injuring his kidney against the Los Angeles Chargers in November. Still, he made a return for Green Bay’s playoff push. His ankle injury during his second season kept him off the field for all but four games, and Tucker Kraft supplanted him as their primary tight end.
Although Musgrave hasn’t maximized his ability on the field, he has 39 catches in his career for 374 yards and only one touchdown. The Packers liked his talent enough to draft him higher than Kraft last season.
Musgrave and Kraft are tall, fast players with a large catch radius who can stretch the middle of a defense. The Packers can’t add players with TE1 in Week 15 unless they have been on injured reserve for the last two months.
So, what could be the biggest benefit of adding Musgrave for the stretch run and playoffs? The simplest and most obvious answer is depth. Since losing Musgrave, Green Bay’s backup tight ends have been underwhelming.
Second-year undrafted free agent Ben Sims has been the primary backup in Musgrave’s absence. However, he’s almost strictly a blocking tight end at this point in his career. He has only four catches this season – ironically, the same amount as Musgrave – for only 42 yards, and Sims has played in every game.
He brings some juice thanks to his 4.58 40-yard dash and has graded out highly as a blocker at various times this season. Still, he’s better suited as a TE3.
John FitzPatrick has been the third tight end on Green Bay’s depth chart for the last month. They scooped him up from the Atlanta Falcons practice squad shortly after placing Musgrave on injury reserve. However, FitzPatrick has been even less of a factor in the passing game than Sims. He only has one catch for two yards this season.
Even though they list him as a tight end, the Packers have primarily used FitzPatrick on special teams. He has logged only 3.65% or 30 snaps on offense this season. FitzPatrick is 6’7”, 265 lbs., which is intriguing size for the position. Still, we haven’t seen much evidence that he can contribute offensively.
With such limited depth backing him up since placing Musgrave on injured reserve on October 11, Kraft has barely come off the field. He leads the offense in snaps on the season at 709. While he played more than Musgrave before the injury, the Packers have increased Kraft’s snap count per game as they have asked more of him.
In the four games Musgrave played this season, Kraft averaged around 80% of the offensive snaps. Since the injury, Kraft has been upwards of 90% of the snaps Kraft played every offensive snap in Week 9. As outstanding a player as Kraft has become, he can’t play on every down. He needs an occasional snap or two off to keep Kraft fresh for the playoffs.
Outside of depth, the other obvious benefit of bringing Musgrave off injured reserve is his ability to aid Green Bay’s passing attack. Given their limited opportunities, players like Sims and FitzPatrick can be serviceable in backup roles for the regular season. However, come playoff time, the more legitimate options the Packers can have on the field, the better.
Musgrave is a good route runner who can create mismatches against linebackers and safeties with his 6’6” size and 4.5 speed. He can stretch the seam on defense and open up other favorable matchups across the offense. A target of his size is always a positive in the red zone, so we can expect No. 88 within the 20-yard lines.
I would also expect the Packers to utilize more of a Matt Lafleur staple: 12 personnel with Musgrave back on the field. In 2023, the Packers ran 12 personnel, the third-most in the league at 32.9%. The average across the rest of the NFL was only 19%. The two tight end formations force the defense to defend an extra gap while negating the advantages of an eight-man front.
The grouping also limits coverage selection due to the four vertical threats that can emerge. It also sets offenses up with advantageous mismatches, forcing linebackers to handle the quickness of a Flex tight end and pitting overwhelmed defensive backs against the physicality of a Y tight end.
Man, does that sound right up Musgrave and Kraft’s alley? It has been difficult to run with the limited receiving threat at the tight end on the depth chart.
The biggest caveat regarding Luke Musgrave’s return to the field is when he’ll take the field. Just because the Packers have designated him to start practicing doesn’t mean he will suit up for a regular-season game anytime soon. On his first practice back, he did some individual drills, with the plan seemingly being to ramp him up slowly with four games to go in the regular season.
Based on his comments at his locker after that practice, he’s itching to go.
“I think it’s as soon as practical,” he said when a reporter asked when he’ll be ready to play. “I don’t know if there’s a timeline, but as soon as possible that they’ll let me go, I’ll go. I think it’s that I can get out there and contribute positively with the team, whether it’s a limited role, wherever they see me, and whenever that time comes, we’ll be back.”
The best version of this offense is to come, and getting Luke Musgrave back for a playoff run is an exciting prospect for this Green Bay team.