This late in the NFL season, teams usually prioritize sound football fundamentals and gear up for a postseason run. However, some aspects of playoff football — getting off the field on third down, trusting your check-downs, and winning the time-of-possession battle — will undoubtedly still take precedence.
But the most critical component of playoff football remains:
Who can effectively run the rock?
Despite nine consecutive wins and still ranking first in DVOA, Minnesota’s defense has struggled against the run without linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. In the games Pace has played this year, the Vikings rank first in rush yards allowed per game, yards per rush, and rush-defense success rate (71.6%). They rank second in yards after contact, allowing just over two yards.
Holding an NFL team to under 80 yards a game in the era of the running-back-by-committee model is no easy feat.
In games without Pace this season, the numbers take a dramatic dip.
The number of rushing yards the Vikings allowed per game increased to around 110, ranking 15th overall in the league. Their opponent’s yards per carry rose to 4.4, and they generated over three yards after contact. The most staggering result is the dip in the rush defense success rate, which dropped nearly 20% to 55.6%, ranking 23rd in the league.
Pace’s ability to establish first contact stifles opponents, forcing them into a one-dimensional game plan. His willingness to squirm into crevices for the first bite of the ball carrier opens the floodgates for other defenders to rally to the ball. Pace also has no issue taking on a guard, who often has seven inches and 70 lbs. on him, one-on-one and wins those battles.
Here’s Pace, in his rookie season, pinning a 320 lb. guard for fun:
Even as he shoots into the backfield, Pace’s gap discipline is never compromised. He has an uncanny way of maximizing opportunity within that gap because of his motivated movements. Pace has no hesitation with his play, putting an attack-first approach on full display.
The clips above highlight Pace’s strengths and how it helps the team. In the first clip of this tape reel, we see the downhill approach that features Pace’s speed. The gap between the LT and TE was brief. However, before the opposing TE could chip Pace, he was already home on the ball carrier. The second clip features a bit of his nuance.
The New York Jets were in a jumbo set, leaving Pace with strongside gap responsibilities. He shifts toward the center’s line pre-snap only to come right back and sidestep his way into beating the TE coming upfield, again maneuvering his way in for first contact. That few inches of setting up this inside move allowed him the proper leverage to get to the ball carrier.
With an acute understanding of space, Pace’s play allows linebacker Blake Cashman to play more freely. Given the productivity Pace brings when opposing offenses run an outside zone scheme, Cashman is less pressured to track sideline to sideline.
That mutually beneficial relationship works in more ways than one. If the Vikings force a third-and-long situation thanks to early-down run stops, they can be a bit more liberal in sending Cashman to pressure the quarterback. Pace isn’t usually on the field for these looks. That opens up the call sheet for situations that would otherwise not happen if not for early-down success.
The playoffs might as well start this Sunday night, with the victor at Ford Field securing the No. 1 seed. Pace could not have returned from injured reserve at a more opportune time, as his services will undoubtedly be crucial to the matchup’s game flow.
The Detroit Lions average 5.7 yards per carry on their inside and outside-zone rushes. Should it continue, this figure would be a tough ask for any defense to overcome. Stopping the run means winning the time of possession battle, which the Lions have fed off all year.