Death, taxes, and the Green Bay Packers’ defense getting diced on screens – it’s like clockwork, except with more yardage.
Before Thursday night’s matchup with the Detroit Lions, quarterbacks completed 85.7% of their screen passes against Green Bay, totaling 330 yards. From Weeks 11 to 13, passers went 11 of 12 for 126 yards on screens.
Green Bay’s defensive line is among the league’s worst at recognizing screens. They rank in the bottom 10 in pass-rush win rate, and their desperation to generate pressure has left them vulnerable to being outmaneuvered at the line of scrimmage. To make matters worse, the Packers struggle to cover the middle of the field, with second- and third-level defenders often at least five yards away from the ball carrier. Even when they manage to make a tackle, they consistently allow the player to gain extra yardage.
Watching the game against the Detroit Lions, it felt like no Green Bay defender had ever seen a screen before. Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and Co. gashed them all night, including on a critical third-and-seven screen conversion after the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter that squandered Green Bay’s chances of winning.
Teams have figured out how to exploit Green Bay’s personnel. Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie have coverage grades below 55. The secondary desperately needs Jaire Alexander back. Due to injuries, Evan Williams and Javon Bullard exited the game against the Lions. Bullard’s situation looks particularly concerning; reporters later saw him leaving Ford Field on crutches.
Green Bay’s pass rush struggled to generate pressure on Jared Goff, who often had all day to throw against a standard four-man rush. When Jeff Hafley blitzed, Goff quickly got the ball out to his playmakers, who capitalized on the opportunities.
Ironically, screens are an effective tool for beating the blitz. Earlier this year, Sean McVay crafted a game plan with quick-developing screen concepts to counter Brian Flores’ heavy blitz philosophy. It’s hard to believe Jeff Hafley and the defense didn’t anticipate that a well-coached Lions team would make similar adjustments.
Dan Campbell’s offense avoided testing Xavier McKinney. Instead, Goff focused on exploiting the middle of the field, completing 14 of 17 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns on in-breaking routes. The Packers often must stay in two-high coverage because receivers have repeatedly burned Eric Stokes and Keisean Nixon. That limits Green Bay’s ability to bring an extra defender into the box, exposing them to screens that exploit the middle of the field.
Green Bay’s cautious approach to avoiding Detroit’s deep passes is understandable. Jameson Williams is a dangerous speed threat, and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta can create major headaches in the passing game. However, this same defense was pummeled by a Chicago Bears offense that intentionally avoided throwing deep with Caleb Williams. Regardless of how opponents attack, the Packers’ defense simply isn’t delivering results.
Running screens against this defense has become every quarterback’s go-to strategy. Opponents easily fool the pass rush, the linebackers struggle in coverage, and the secondary is often out of position. Injuries may play a part but don’t excuse the defense for being this porous. Repeating the same flawed approach and expecting different results is madness. Their current strategy isn’t working.
In Portuguese, there’s an expression called “morrer na praia,” which means “not achieving the goal in the final stage, when you’re almost there;” the literal translation is “dying on the beach.” The Packers still have time to correct their mistakes. They sit at 9-4 with a 98% chance of making the postseason. However, if they don’t address these issues, they’ll swim into the playoffs only to fall short again. They can’t let the playoffs become their beach.