The Green Bay Packers’ offense is at its best when Josh Jacobs gets the ball. Green Bay is 4-0 when he has at least 25 rushing attempts, 4-1 when he rushes 18 or more times, and 7-0 when he earns a rushing grade above 70.
The next challenge for Green Bay’s offense comes Monday when they face the New Orleans Saints under the lights at Lambeau, and New Orleans’ run defense has struggled this season.
Pro Football Focus ranks the Saints’ defense as the 29th-worst unit in the league. They are 31st in run defense, 22nd in tackling, and 28th in EPA/rush.
New Orleans’ defense ranks 16th in EPA/pass. Jordan Love had his sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate of 2023 against them. On Monday, the Packers must get under center, run the ball, and set up play-action. The Saints are a dome team with a below-average run defense heading to a cold Lambeau with the task of stopping a top-seven in EPA/rush. It’s not exactly an ideal matchup for New Orleans, and the Packers need to exploit it.
Jacobs touched the football on nine out of 10 plays during Green Bay’s first drive against the Seattle Seahawks. The result? Six points. It was like running a play in Madden until the opponent proves they can stop it, and Seattle had no answers for Jacobs that drive.
He finished the first half with 14 carries, 73 yards, a touchdown, and five first downs, while Green Bay scored 20 points. However, in the second half, Jacobs had 12 carries for 21 yards, a fumble, and zero first downs. The Packers had only scored three points until late in the fourth quarter.
Jacobs is the best player in Green Bay’s offense. He’s the first Packers running back to surpass 1,000 rushing yards since Aaron Jones in 2022. Jacobs ranks top five in rushing yards, touchdowns, rushing grade, yards after contact, missed tackles forced, rushes of 10-plus yards, and first downs.
Over the last four games, Jacobs has rushed at least 18 times each game. Meanwhile, Love has thrown seven passing touchdowns with zero interceptions, five big-time throws, and zero turnover-worthy plays. Love often finds success when teams stack the box to stop Jacobs, allowing the passing game to flow more effectively.
January football is approaching, and playoff success depends on running the ball effectively. On Monday, Green Bay has a chance to sharpen its ground game against a dome team with a below-average run defense. It’s a terrible matchup for New Orleans and a perfect opportunity for Jacobs to build momentum heading into the final two weeks of the regular season.
Giving Jacobs a heavy workload also helps Green Bay control time of possession. The Packers must sustain long scoring drives, give their defense plenty of rest on the sidelines, and finish the game quickly. They have a short week before a crucial Week 17 divisional matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, which could determine who secures the fifth seed.
If the Packers build an early lead, it will be interesting to see how Matt LaFleur manages Jacobs’ workload. With a top-two defense in EPA/play awaiting Green Bay on a short week, keeping their best offensive player fresh would be smart.
It’s not like Jacobs can’t handle a heavy workload in a short week. Last season, he had 20 rushing attempts against the Packers on a Monday, followed by 25 carries six days later against the New England Patriots.
The Las Vegas Raiders played the Detroit Lions on Monday night, where Jacobs rushed 15 times. Six days later, he carried the ball 26 times. Las Vegas had a third Monday game, which took place in Kansas City, but Jacobs didn’t suit up for that one. He also didn’t play in the following week.
I wouldn’t expect the Packers to be conservative with Jacobs on Monday night. While they’re virtually in the playoffs, nothing is guaranteed. Green Bay’s offense runs through Jacobs, and it would be unwise for LaFleur to limit his involvement just because of a short week. However, if the Packers build a comfortable lead, we might see Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson get extra snaps.