A year ago, Jordan Love was one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks when using play-action.
He ranked third in passing yards and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns. He posted the sixth-best completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks. Love also had the fourth-most first downs and a 113.7 passer rating.
The Green Bay Packers’ offense operated at its best when the under-center play action was effective. It was a big part of their identity, keeping them competitive and fueling their playoff run.
Love suffered an MCL sprain against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. He was close to playing against the Tennessee Titans but returned a week later to face the 3-0 Minnesota Vikings. The Packers adjusted their game plan in that rivalry showdown, largely due to Love’s health.
Most of Green Bay’s game plan relied on shotgun plays because Love’s knee injury limited his mobility. The Packers allowed a season-high 25 pressures and eight quarterback hits.
After the Week 5 game against the Los Angeles Rams, Peter Bukowski asked Love why Green Bay wasn’t using more under-center play action and if it was related to his knee. “It’s game-plan specific,” Love replied. “We really did that against the Vikings, but this was not the same plan.”
Love showed improved mobility against the Arizona Cardinals. He threw four touchdowns and completed 70% of his play-action passes, including one for a touchdown. He also recorded a 9.1% big-time throw rate with no turnover-worthy plays. The following week against the Houston Texans’ top-10 DVOA defense, he threw two interceptions but had three touchdowns.
Despite a strong recent track record in Florida, the Sunshine State has often posed problems for Green Bay. Week 8 was no different. Brandon McManus kicked a game-winning field goal to secure a 30-27 win, but Love injured his groin late in the second quarter. He played the following week against the Detroit Lions with limited mobility, and they pressured him 18 times.
Love operates primarily from shotgun because of his injuries, and his production on non-play-action pass plays has dropped. He’s now 22nd in EPA per play without play action, down from eighth last year. However, he’s improved with play action this year, ranking seventh in EPA per dropback, up from 10th in 2023. The problem is that the Packers are using less play action in 2024. Their play-action percentage has dropped to 21% from 26% last year.
Green Bay managed to beat less talented teams despite the reduced under-center usage. However, it’s no coincidence that two of their three losses came against playoff teams with top-three EPA/play defenses. With Love’s limited mobility, the Packers couldn’t build a game plan around under-center play action and under-center plays overall. They had to stay away from their strength, which didn’t help their chances of winning.
Love has 14 days to rest before Green Bay’s matchup in Chicago. His mobility should be less limited by then. The Bears have the top-ranked defense in EPA per pass but rank only 26th in EPA per rush. The Packers should commit to running the ball from under center in this game. If Green Bay executes that well, it will open opportunities for under-center play action, where their offense works at its best.