Well, that was ugly. The Detroit Lions sent the Green Bay Packers limping into their bye week after coming into Lambeau Field and winning a game that didn’t feel as close as the final 10-point margin would suggest. The Packers had an opportunity to take first place in what is quickly becoming the best division in football. However, they left several key plays and points on the rain-soaked Lambeau turf.
Over the next two weeks, people will talk about Green Bay’s self-inflicted wounds ad nauseam until the Packers play their next game – as they should. This team sometimes cannot get out of its own way offensively. We could talk about areas where they must improve, such as penalties and decision-making from quarterback Jordan Love. However, there is one key area that multiple players across multiple position groups contribute to, an issue that must be addressed and fixed – and fast.
Dropped passes.
Green Bay’s pass catchers dropped six passes on Sunday against the Lions, bringing their season total to 24. They are now among the league leaders in a category no team wants to top. (The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets are ahead of them on this dubious leader board.)
Something needs to change for the Packers. Perhaps most troubling about these drops is that Green Bay’s skill-position groups were projected to be among the deepest and most talented on the entire roster coming into the season.
The two biggest culprits so far have been Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. Reed has ostensibly stepped into the No. 1 receiver role this season. He leads the team with six drops on 42 total targets. In other words, he drops 14% of the passes thrown his way.
Wicks also has had especially crucial drops this year. Wicks has just 16 catches on 43 targets, and his 37.21% catch rate is the second-lowest in the NFL. He also leads the league in drop rate at 27.3% and is 0-9 in contested-catch situations. Wicks is dropping passes when the Packers need him most. Those are not great stats for two young players who came into the season with a ton of hype and were projected to take the leap to possibly become WR1 and WR2.
Reed arguably makes up for his drops with other big plays throughout a game. He finished Sunday with five receptions for 113 yards and has been Green Bay’s most explosive receiver all season.
On the other hand, Wicks has taken a significant step back. On Sunday, he dropped a wide-open touchdown pass that would have brought the Packers within two scores. Unlike his counterpart, he did not have a big impact play to make up for it, finishing 0-3 with two drops (including a first-down drop earlier in the game).
It’s not just the wide receivers dropping passes. Running back Chris Brooks, whom I praised last week and who has gained more playing time, dropped what would have been a walk-in touchdown pass on Green Bay’s opening drive. Instead, they had to settle for a field goal. Tight end Tucker Kraft dropped a pass on third-and-eight later in the game, leading to a missed field goal by Brandon McManus.
Romeo Doubs also dropped a slant pass, rounding out the day’s drops and bringing the team total to six. At least two of those drops (Wicks in the end zone, Brooks in the red zone) took sure points off the board. Four of the six drops occurred on third down, which are drive-killing. If the Packers are to compete with the Lions and the rest of the NFC, it is imperative they do not leave points on the field. The Packers are a good team, but no team can consistently survive these continuous drops.
Green Bay’s challenge is to figure out why the drops are happening. A natural reason for this past game would be the weather and treacherous conditions, which were not ideal for catching footballs. However, two teams were on that field, and the other team didn’t drop a pass – let alone six. Another possibility could be that Jordan Love is throwing passes that are hard to catch.
Love would be the first to admit when a ball is off-target for a receiver, but they still need to come down with it. When asked about Wicks’ drop in the end zone on Sunday, Love said, “Definitely was a little bit behind him, but I think that’s a play that he can make, and I think he knows he can make it.”
Quarterbacks don’t always have the time or ability to throw a perfect ball. NFL wide receivers are expected (and paid) to make adjustments on the fly and catch any ball that hits their hands.
The simplest explanation probably lies in youth, regression, and heightened expectations. While excitement comes from the Packers possessing such a young group of pass catchers and skill players, the biggest risk was always relying on so many developing players. Many players are only in their second or third year in the league, so some regression is bound to happen.
We have seen plenty of players go on to great careers after struggling with drops earlier in their careers, such as former Packer Davante Adams. In his second year in the league, Adams dropped a whopping 12 passes on 96 targets. He then rebounded and became one of the best receivers in team history. It’s quite possible that some of these players, like Wicks, are just going through a temporary drop phase.
Additionally, this team made a deep playoff run last year that exceeded expectations. They entered last season in a “rebuilding” phase, so not much was expected of them as a team or on individual levels. This year, they were projected to take that next step as a team ready to compete, and they aren’t taking anyone by surprise. Increased expectations and pressure may be taking a toll on some players, causing them to press and overcompensate.
However, drops can fluctuate. It’s a problem that can haunt a player and a team, but they can work on it. I agree with what LaFleur said after the game on Sunday:
Our fundamentals weren’t necessarily right the way we coach it and the way we drill it in terms of being aggressive with your hands, and we were allowing the ball to get in our body a little too much.
The Packers still possess a very deep and talented group of pass catchers. However, they collectively must get back to their fundamentals and trust their process to ensure these drops are behind them. The bye week is the perfect time for them to start that process.