The Minnesota Vikings are 9-2, second in the NFC North, and would have the fifth seed if the playoffs started next week. They are up three games on the Arizona Cardinals, who visit U.S. Bank Stadium this season. Arizona is one game back on the seventh-seeded Washington Commanders.
With the Vikings on the verge of a playoff appearance, it might be time to look at how the season started and where they could land six weeks from now.
Entering the season, the Vikings were not expected to play meaningful football at the end of the year, let alone make the playoffs. But here they are. It seemed to many that Minnesota’s schedule kicked off against several teams with significant potential, perhaps even Super Bowl contenders.
The middle had a stretch of easier teams, which would have been a good spot for J.J. McCarthy to get his first start in the league before he went down with a season-ending knee injury. The Vikings would then end with more challenging teams before concluding the season against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
Let’s start by looking at the past 12 weeks, how we got to where we are today, and how these first 11 games look in hindsight.
Vegas favored the Vikings by one point in Week 1’s 28-6 win over the New York Giants, and many fans expected them to win that game.
Minnesota’s 23-17 Week 2 victory against the San Francisco 49ers seemed like an impressive win. Sure, Christian McCaffrey was out, but this was still a team that many saw as a Super Bowl contender prior to the start of the season. However, the 49ers likely won’t even make the playoffs thanks to a combination of injuries and a competitive NFC West.
The Vikings beat the Houston Texans 34-7, another preseason contender, in Week 3. That was the last time Minnesota blew out a team. Given Houston’s projections, there was serious talk about how surprisingly good the Vikings had been.
But while the Texans lead the AFC South, they might not be as strong a team as we thought. Their wins at the beginning of the season, before the last six games, showed some serious promise, including their three-point win over the Buffalo Bills and a 20-point margin of victory over the New England Patriots. They have lost four of their last six, two of which came against a struggling New York Jets team and the other against the rebuilding Tennessee Titans.
Houston’s other two losses in that stretch were stunners, one on a last-second FG to the Packers and the other to the Lions, even though they intercepted Jared Goff a whopping five times. For a team with so many expectations coming into this season, the Texans have recently started showing that they just might not have it this year.
The Vikings got their first division win in Week 4, a 31-29 victory over Green Bay. However, it was the first time fans had concerns about the second-half defense. Had Jordan Love been healthy, the Packers may have handed Minnesota its first loss.
A week later, the Vikings beat the New York Jets in London. Before the season, pundits believed Aaron Rodgers would get the Jets to the playoffs. However, the Jets have spiraled since. They fired head coach Robert Saleh and have fallen to 3-8.
Coming out of the bye week, Minnesota lost its first game of the season to the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who have become the NFC’s best teams. The Vikings were competitive throughout the game. On second look, they should feel better about only losing by three points, given how Dan Campbell and the Lions have blown teams out. Still, Detroit exposed how to beat Minnesota’s defense without Blake Cashman, using the dagger concept and the massive chunk plays to beat Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme.
Five days later, the Vikings had to play the Los Angeles Rams with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returning. The Vikings were coming off a physical game against the Lions on a short week. Still, the loss stung. The missed facemask on Sam Darnold in the end zone didn’t help. However, the whole team seemed gassed and potentially underprepared.
Still, the Vikings got back in the win column in Week 9 against the Joe Flacco–led Indianapolis Colts. This game had the no-call hit to Darnold’s head and a strip-sack score. Otherwise, the Vikings controlled the game against a team they were supposed to beat.
However, Will Reichard suffered an injury against the Colts. John Parker Romo won a kicking competition that week and went four for four, propelling a 12-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Vikings had chances to score touchdowns and take control of the game against a two-win team. The fact that they couldn’t build a large margin of victory and turned the ball over three times caused some fans to wonder what to make of this team.
The Vikings took control of the game a week later against a one-win Titans team. They finally had better ref luck and swept the AFC South. Still, it seemed like Minnesota’s second-half defensive struggles would continue until the defense came up with big stops late to secure the win.
Last week, the Vikings played another crazy game in Soldier Field, needing overtime to come away with win No. 9. With an 11-point deficit and under 30 seconds left, the Bears got a TD, a two-point conversion, and recovered an onside kick. Then Caleb Williams connected with D.J. Moore on a bomb down the field to finish regulation with a game-tying field goal. However, Minnesota’s defense held the Bears to a three-and-out, and Darnold drove them down the field to come away with a victory with another clutch field goal from Romo.
The 2024 Vikings could make some noise in the playoffs. They have a resilient QB, a hard-nosed RB, and some of the best pass catchers in the league. The coaching staff continues to trust their players and put their team in the best positions to win football games.
The offense’s turnovers, the health of the offensive line, and the defense’s second-half inconsistencies – like Week 12’s win over the Bears, when it gave up 11 points in the final two minutes of regulation – could be areas for concern when examining the supposed weaknesses of this 2024 team. The season’s final six weeks could show fans what’s in store going into the playoffs.
They will play better opponents but have winnable games against an inconsistent Arizona Cardinals team, Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons coming to town, the Chicago Bears at home, and the 12s in Seattle. Then they finish the season with two divisional games: the Packers at home in Detroit. Therefore, it’s easy to thank goodness for those wins at the beginning of the season. Each of those teams, except the Bears, is playing for their playoff lives — or the No. 1 seed.
Making it to the playoffs seemed like a pipe dream to most fans and outsiders before the kickoff to this season. The Vikings showed that they believe in themselves every week, in turn causing their fanbase to believe in them, even if some may be skeptical. As the season heads into its home stretch, it’s hard for even the most cynical fans not to think this team is something special.