Will the Green Bay Packers’ season begin and end with games against the Philadelphia Eagles? Or will they shock the world as they did last year on Wild Card weekend, knocking off the No. 2-seeded NFC East champs?
It felt like last year’s Packers soared into the playoffs with a ton of momentum. Still, we forget they lost back-to-back December games to the Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (where Baker Mayfield pitched a perfect game), barely beat the woeful Carolina Panthers, and closed with a one-score win over the Chicago Bears.
Only the Dallas Cowboys’ perennial playoff shortcomings gave hope that the Pack might deal them their first home loss of the season. My point is, yes, the last two weeks have been ugly, but this team has shown that it knows how to flip the switch.
Of course, there are troubling developments. Jordan Love’s elbow appears to be okay. He’s off the injury report and practiced fully the past two days, but you can never be totally comfortable when your QB injures his throwing arm the previous week. And the loss of Christian Watson is a devastating blow that makes this offense much easier to defend.
I’m more concerned about Green Bay’s offense than its defense right now, and I have no idea when I’ve ever written that sentence before. They’ve been slow to get out of the gate lately. That won’t work this weekend, and the passing game hasn’t been crisp for weeks.
The Eagles also tend to need some time to get their offense in gear; there’s a real opportunity for the Packers to score early and set the tone. The problem is that Philadelphia’s defense has been as good as anyone since the midway point in the season. One thing, though: They haven’t faced a gauntlet of high-powered offenses. Jayden Daniels put five touchdowns on the board against them a couple weeks back.
Both teams hit free-agency home runs with defensive signings that turned into All-Pros. It was Xavier McKinney for the Pack and former Badger Zack Baun for the Eagles. Baun leads a talented, aggressive unit that can wreak havoc without blitzing and will believe its corners can play man and win their matchups with Green Bay’s receivers. The Vikings bottled up the WRs playing man, and Philly’s corners are much more talented.
Let’s see what LaFleur has planned to counter that. Getting Josh Jacobs involved in the passing game would make sense and it feels like it needs to be a Jayden Reed game. He had a monster game in the opener and could be used in the Watson role as a deep threat, though the Eagles have been tough to throw deep against. They’re also really hard to run against with those big beefy tackles, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.
I’m so interested to see how Green Bay’s defense fares against the Eagles’ offense, which will always run through Saquon Barkley, especially with Jalen Hurts shaking off rust. Barkley scored three times in the opener but didn’t bust any backbreaking runs. The Pack’s run defense is on another level now, especially since Edgerrin Cooper announced himself over the last six weeks.
The Pack should get Quay Walker and Evan Williams back — both are listed as questionable but have practiced in some capacity all week. Williams made the NFC All-Rookie team along with Cooper. That allows Javon Bullard to play the slot, putting Keisean Nixon on the outside, where he has shined this season.
Hurts is the great unknown. He’s cleared concussion protocol but has only thrown five passes over the last three weeks. Will he be willing to be the dangerous ball carrier he can be, or will the Eagles be more conservative? The Packers did a nice job keeping him in the pocket in the opener. They may be willing to dare him to run and be a bit more aggressive with the pass rush.
If the Packers win the toss, I hope they defer. Taking the ball has not paid off lately, and now is the time to trust your defense to stop a slow-starting Eagles offense on their first drive and then let your own offense kick into gear. For some reason, Philly’s offense has been much more prolific in the second half of games all season.
The Packers have to play a much cleaner game to pull off the upset than they have the past two weeks. You can’t get duped on a punt, you can’t commit pre-snap penalties, you obviously cannot turn the ball over, and you have to get off to a fast start.
We’re all well aware the Pack is 0-5 against the top NFC contenders, though all but one of those losses have been a one-score game. Assuming Love’s elbow is fine, I think the Packers can take Philadelphia’s punches and deliver some of their own. But until they can prove they can close the deal against one of these contenders, it’s hard to believe it will happen on Sunday.
Eagles 23
Packers 20