The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5) hit the road to close out the regular season with a rivalry game against the Wisconsin Badgers (5-6) on Black Friday at 11 a.m. CST.
Can Wisconsin score on offense?
The Air Raid experiment is over, with offensive coordinator Phil Longo being shown the door amidst a season in which Wisconsin ranks 93rd in passing offense (202.7 passing yards per game), 64th in rushing offense (164.4 rushing yards per game), and 96th in scoring offense (24 points per game). When head coach Luke Fickell dropped the axe on Longo, the Badgers had been held to 13 points or fewer in three straight losses.
Wisconsin lost starting quarterback and former Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending ACL tear in Week 3, forcing them to turn the offense over to back-up Braedyn Locke. He has thrown for 1,806 passing yards, completed 56.4 percent of his passes, and passed for 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Locke has struggled with his accuracy and he has come under fire for his decision-making when under pressure. He also lacks arm strength and mobility.
The Badgers like to spread the ball around, featuring eight different pass catchers with at least double-digit receptions. Junior wide receiver Will Pauling leads the team in receptions with 42, to go along with 407 receiving yards and three touchdowns, but he has been banged up all year and missed the Nebraska game last week. Vinny Anthony III is the team leader in receiving yards with 633 and has also caught three touchdowns. There is no true star among this group, but there are receivers like Anthony, Trech Kekahuna, and C.J. Williams who can stretch the defense.
In the backfield, running back Tawee Walker is the Badgers’ leading rusher with 176 carries for 828 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Expect him to get the bulk of the carries against Minnesota. Wisconsin will also mix in freshman Darrion Dupree in relief of Walker.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from this offense, which has been inconsistent all season long and is now being led by tight ends coach Nate Letton.
Please tell me the Gophers will be able to score
The Badgers rank 91st in run defense (163.4 rushing yards allowed per game), 13th in pass defense (176.5 passing yards allowed per game), and 52nd in scoring defense (23 points allowed per game). Against Minnesota, Wisconsin could be without All-Big Ten safety Hunter Wohler, who is the leader of their defense and their safety valve in the back end, after he missed the Nebraska game last week with an undisclosed injury.
Linebacker Jake Chaney also exited last week’s game with an apparent leg injury. If the Badgers are without both of them, that would be two of their top three leading tacklers.
When Wohler is healthy, he leads a veteran Badgers secondary that is the strength of their defense. Ricardo Hallman is an All-Big Ten cornerback, and former East Carolina transfer cornerback Nyzier Fourqurean trails only Wohler on the team in pass break-ups (5). This is not a ball-hawking defensive backfield, though, as Wisconsin has only recorded four interceptions this season. In general, this is not a defense that forces a lot of turnovers.
Up front, look out for defensive tackles Curt Neal and Elijah Hills, who have combined for three sacks and seven tackles for loss this season. As is often the case with the Badgers, their best pass rushers are at linebacker, where Christian Alliegro leads the team with three. But an inconsistent pass rush has been one of the flaws of this defense all year long.
This should be a game in which the Gophers can establish a ground game and allow quarterback Max Brosmer to take some of the weight of the offense off his shoulders.
But who will score more points on Saturday?
Make no mistake, the Gophers are going to get the Badgers’ best shot. Not only is this a rivalry game, but it’ll be Senior Day at Camp Randall and Wisconsin is fighting to extend a 22-year bowl game streak. Throw both team’s records out the window. This is going to be a fight. But it’s a fight I expect the Gophers to win. The Axe is coming home. Minnesota 27, Wisconsin 20.