Can the Gophers finally break the Bret Bielema curse?
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) head to Champaign for a showdown with the No. 24-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (6-2) on Saturday at 11 a.m. CT.
Can Illinois score on offense?
I think Illinois offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. is one of the most underrated play-callers in the Big Ten, and he has been cooking this season with second-year starting quarterback Luke Altmyer under center. Altmyer is completing 63% of his passes and has thrown for 1,667 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He is efficient, athletic, and rarely turns the ball over. He has hit a rough patch in their last two games — 26-of-53 (49%) for 241 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions — but this offense is at its best when he is at his best.
Of course it helps that Altmyer has a lethal weapon at wide receiver: Pat Bryant. The senior is one of the top scoring threats in the Big Ten, leading the Fighting Illini with 34 receptions for 510 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. His size allows him to make catches in traffic and makes him a formidable red zone target. Bryant was shaken up after taking a brutal hit in their loss to Oregon last week but he is expected to be available against Minnesota.
Illinois has struggled to run the ball consistently, averaging 144.5 rushing yards per game (which ranks 81st nationally). But they have a committee of running backs they’ll use to try and get the ground game going. Kaden Feagin is their leading rusher with 67 carries for 306 rushing yards and three touchdowns. His 6’3”, 250-lb. frame makes him a difficult back to bring down. Sophomore Aidan Laughery and junior Josh McCray should also figure into the rotation.
Similar to the game against Maryland, this matchup will come down to whether the Gophers can pressure (and, more importantly, contain) Altmyer. They need to make him uncomfortable but also keep him from escaping the pocket and extending plays. The Minnesota secondary will have their hands full with Bryant, but in previous games against USC and Maryland they’ve shown they can bottle up some of the conference’s top wide receivers.
Please tell me the Gophers will be able to score
The Fighting Illini rank 79th in run defense (154.8 rushing yards allowed per game), 51st in pass defense (211.2 passing yards allowed per game), and 32nd in scoring defense (20.6 points allowed per game). A classic bend-but-don’t-break defense.
If you look at their 21-7 win over Michigan, you’ll notice Illinois was outgained 322-267. The difference in the game: Three Michigan turnovers. Illinois converted two of them into 10 points and the third came in the red zone, spoiling a scoring opportunity for the Wolverines. The Fighting Illini rank 25th nationally in turnovers with nine interceptions and five fumble recoveries.
It will be interesting to see if the Gophers try and run the ball more against what is (at least on paper) a softer defensive front than many of their previous opponents. If they do, they’ll have to get through nose tackle TeRah Edwards (25 tackles and 3 tackles for loss) and defensive end Dennis Briggs Jr. (28 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss). Linebacker and leading tackler Gabe Jacas will also be a problem for Darius Taylor and the Minnesota offensive line, but he has also made a name for himself rushing the quarterback. He leads the team with 6.5 sacks.
In the secondary, watch out for cornerback Xavier Scott. He is a difference maker on defense for Illinois and leads the team with three interceptions.
But who will score more points on Saturday?
The Gophers have struggled on the road this season, especially in the first half. They scored a combined three points in the first half against Michigan and UCLA in their two previous road trips. They can’t afford to start slow against an Illinois team that wants to control the clock and dictate the tempo of the game. But the stat that haunts me is Bret Bielema’s 10-0 career record against Minnesota. Even when the Fighting Illini were bad in 2021 and 2023, they found a way to beat the Gophers. I don’t know what kind of black magic Bert conjures when he plays Minnesota, but I’d be a fool to bet against it. Prove me wrong, P.J. Illinois 20, Minnesota 17.