A quick overview of the Gopher football opponents in 2024
Recently we discussed how much production is returning to the Gopher offense and defense this coming season. This is one factor in gauging if this upcoming season will be successful or not, but it is only part of the equation. What about our opponents? Is this a particularly difficult schedule? Are they returning a lot or are they in a different part of the cycle in college football?
The narrative I have been reading throughout the offseason is that this schedule is brutal. Adding the Pac12 teams that have been added and the loss of a Big Ten West schedule certainly leads to a conference schedule with very few (if any) weeks you can lose your focus.
Adding USC and UCLA to your schedule, on paper, is daunting. And then other years we get to play Oregon and/or Washington. Why couldn’t we have added Oregon State or Stanford?
But maybe this is just the new normal. Maybe this particular schedule isn’t any more difficult than it will be any other year moving forward. First, we have to move past the
North Carolina Tar Heels
2023 Record: 8-5, lost to West Virginia in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Returning Production: 53% (99th out of 134)
Offense: 44% (112th)
Defense: 61% (65th)
SP+ Rank: 50
Obviously the Tar Heels are losing Drake Maye who was the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft, but they also rank 65th in SP+ defensively. I know that last year the Gophers went to Chapel Hill and were soundly defeated, but this time, it is two programs doing in different directions.
I love that this game is home. I love that they are replacing a program changing quarterback. Max Johnson is a grad transfer from Texas A&M who is expected to start over the young Conner Harrell. This may set an NCAA record with both starting quarterbacks having the first name “Max.”
But it wasn’t just losing Drake Maye, UNC also had linebacker Cedric Gray drafted in the 4th round and WR Devontez Walker taken 7 picks later.
Minnesota are -1.5 favorites in the extremely early betting lines. I’d take the Gopher to cover that.
Rhode Island Rams
2023 Record: 6-5 in FCS
Dipping down into the FCS for week 2, the Gophers should not have a problem with the Rams.
This will be a revenge game for Max Brosmer who threw for 456 yards in 2 touchdowns against Rhode Island last year but lost in OT.
Nevada Wolfpack
2023 Record: 2-10
Returning Production: 60% (78th)
Offense: 64% (56th)
Defense: 55% (93rd)
SP+ Rank: 121
Back-to-back 2-win seasons for the Wolfpack, a new coaching staff and this is not a game that the Gophers should lose. We should expect that it will be much closer than it should be and there will be much angst because we will be in full vanilla mode as we don’t want to put anything on film for Iowa.
At this point, there is a very real chance that the Gophers are 3-0 heading into the Iowa game.
Iowa Hawkeyes
2023 Record: 10-3
Returning Production: 79% (10th)
Offense: 72% (33rd)
Defense: 86% (2nd)
SP+ Rank: 22
The good news is that this game is at home. The bad news is that this Iowa defense is going to be really good. Perhaps better than last year’s defense which was also really good. The offensive line also returns quite a bit of talent and experience, it might be the best in the Big Ten.
This game will be strength on strength and should be a tight game. A “welcome to the Big Ten, Mr. Brosmer” game.
Did the Gophers shed the Iowa monkey off their back? Or will this game return Floyd to Iowa City? Can the Gophers win the special teams battle? So many questions and this game is going to be a swing game for both programs’ seasons.
The more I look at this on paper, the more I don’t like our changes. But if the broadcast crew replays the Cooper Dejean illegal fair catch and they start talking about if that was a fair catch signal or not, I might lose my mind.
at Michigan Wolverines
2023 Record: 15-0, national champions
Returning Production: 40% (126th)
Offense: 27% (132nd)
Defense: 53% (99th)
SP+ Rank: 6
No surprise, Michigan is losing a LOT from last year’s national championship team. They are a “reload” program and will be replacing their 13 draft picks (and transfers) with 4 and 5-star players. But there’s going to be some sort of a regression here.
Does that mean that the Gophers are going to roll into Ann Arbor and we should be confident in a win? It is a good thing to be playing them early in the season and having a game that is sandwiched between USC and Washington. It should be easy for the Wolverines to look past the Gophers. But a win here would be a pleasant surprise, not anything we can count on.
USC Trojans
2023 Record: 8-5 after starting 7-0
Returning Production: 60% (77th)
Offense: 51% (99th)
Defense: 69% (34th)
SP+ Rank: 21
I know this is “USC” and halfway through last season everyone thought they were “back.” But also, they haven’t exactly been elite in a while.
They are replacing 7 NFL draft picks including Caleb Williams who is being replaced with a young Miller Moss, who threw 6 touchdowns in the bowl win over Louisville.
It will be very interesting to see how this program holds up in their first season in the Big Ten.
at UCLA Bruins
2023 Record: 8-5
Returning Production: 70% (21st)
Offense: 70% (39th)
Defense: 71% (29th)
SP+ Rank: 26
The Bruins face a brutal 3-game stretch of at LSU, home to Oregon and then at Penn State before getting the Gophers at home. A game that I’m sure Bruins fans are looking at as a chance to get some momentum and confidence back. This is also after a rough stretch for the Gophers facing Iowa, @Michigan and USC before traveling to southern California.
UCLA returns a lot from a solid team last year and it sneakily one of the tougher opponents on the schedule.
Last year they flip-flopped quarterbacks throughout the season but with Dante Moore transferring, the job belongs to Ethan Garber. Along with Garber, they return their to p2 leading rushers and receivers on offense. They also return 4 starters along the OL but it was a sketchy group last year, so the jury is deliberating on if this is a good thing or not.
Defensively they lose a LOT. They are losing their top 5 defensive ends, their leader at linebacker and significant losses in the secondary.
By the 7th week of the season, we should have a pretty good indication of how the Bruins will be on both sides of the ball. This is one of those swing games between having a good season or an underwhelming one.
Maryland Terrapins
2023 Record: 8-5
Returning Production: 51% (102nd)
Offense: 36% (123rd)
Defense: 66% (42nd)
SP+ Rank: 44
The Terps started out 5-0 and were looking like a tough Big Ten East team and they actually led Ohio State in the 3rd quarter before seeing that half and their next 3 games go south…quickly. They ended up losing 4 in a row and the 4th was getting compete anialated by Penn State 51-14 (with -49 yards rushing).
That stretch was followed by finishing the season winning 3 of their last 4, losing only to Michigan 31-24 winning at Nebraska and finishing with a 31-13 bowl win over Auburn.
An up and down season and this year they come back with a LOT of questions on both sides of the ball. And the biggest question is who replaces Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback.
The Terps went into spring practice with 5 guys competing to be QB1. Billy Edwards Jr was the starter in the bowl win over Auburn, leading the team in passing and rushing. But he also completed just 6 of 20 passes. Cameron Edge is a returner who is in the mix, along with NC State transfer, MJ Morris.
Answering this question is key to Maryland’s success in 2024, but I would like to think that the Gophers are a stronger team this season.
at Illinois Fighting Illini
2023 Record: 5-7
Returning Production: 61% (71st)
Offense: 57% (82nd)
Defense: 64% (49th)
SP+ Rank: 66
This little preview is irrelevant because Brett Bielema doesn’t lose to Minnesota…ever.
Despite the fact that we have more returning production and rank higher on SP+ early season rankings…this is going to be a loss. Accept it now.
Big losses in the receiving game but this is one of the more stable quarterback situations our schedule. I don’t claim to know how good the Illini offense and defense will be, but I know this is a loss until proven otherwise. It will be a frustrating loss, but the new man atop the list of coached that seem to have PJ’s number is Brett Bielema.
at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2023 Record: 7-6
Returning Production: 72% (13th)
Offense: 69% (40th)
Defense: 75% (20th)
SP+ Rank: 49
I never would have imagined that there would be so many similarities between Rutgers and Minnesota. But there is just too much crossover here to ignore the fact that these programs are trying to gain a foothold in the Big Ten, with very similar methods.
PJ Fleck is very clearly a direct descendant of the Greg Schiano coaching tree. And Shiano has since sniped Fleck assistants to be his coordinators. Not to mention their starting quarterback is Athan Kaliakmanis.
It’ll come down to talent on the field and which side executes better.
Penn State Nittany Lions
2023 Record: 10-3
Returning Production: 67% (37th)
Offense: 67% (49th)
Defense: 68% (38th)
SP+ Rank: 7
Imagine losing your starting offensive tackles and your starting defensive ends to the first three rounds of the NFL Draft and still coming back with a top-10 caliber team. Returning two All-Bg Ten running backs and your starting quarterback will help.
Penn State will be very good and could be coming to Minnesota with playoff hopes still on the table. Minnesota gets 2 weeks to prepare for this one, but despite my high hopes for this year’s team, I’m not holding my breath.
at Wisconsin Badgers
2023 Record: 7-6
Returning Production: 68% (31st)
Offense: 64% (57th)
Defense: 71% (25th)
SP+ Rank: 27
I know the Badger juggernaught beat Minnesota last year, but they were just a 7-6 football team, blowing a 2-touchdown lead in the 3rd quarter to LSU in the Reliaquest Bowl.
Wisconsin had 3 players on the offensive All-Big Ten team, they are all gone. But more talent is returning on defense.
This one always matters, but it should be a key game for determining bowl fates for both programs.
The schedule is no picnic, but it also may not be as daunting as it appears. I firmly believe that this Gopher team is going to be a good one, and they can compete with just bout anybody on this schedule.
For one final analysis, here are all 12 teams (plus Minnesota) listed in order of their SP+ rankings.
- 6 – @Michigan
- 7 – Penn State
- 21 – USC
- 22 – Iowa
- 27 – @Wisconsin
- 26 – @UCLA
- 44 – Maryland
- 45 – MINNESOTA
- 49 – @Rutgers
- 50 – North Carolina
- 66 – @Illinois
- 121 – Nevada
- NR – Rhode Island
Strictly looking at this, we are a 5-7 team. But I’ll take our chances with Maryland at home and any of those schools after Michigan and Penn State.
What do you see for this year’s record?