The Gophers have a lot of returning production, will it lead to more wins?
Experience is a huge factor in college football. It is one part maturation and one part playing and getting used to the level of competition. The amount of body development and maturation (physically and emotionally) that these kids go through between their senior year of high school and senior year of college is dramatic.
So again, experience is a big deal.
But it is not just about age and years in the program. Returning starters is one thing, but there’s more value in what kind of production is returning. This is what ESPN loves to do for us every offseason.
That memorable 2019 Gopher football season? The Gophers were 10th nationally in returning production. A 2018 team that was good, but nothing special. And they brought virtually everybody back, and it paid off in a big way.
Last year’s squad? They were not great, really a pretty inconsistent team that managed to find a way to a bowl game. We anticipated this, largely because they were 87th nationally in returning production. It was a year to regroup. The team was fine, but there were some growing pains, most notably at quarterback.
Do you remember blowing a 21-point lead at Northwestern? And the week before that, losing to North Carolina with several unforced errors.
Last week I began writing out a “perspective” piece following the North Carolina game that was centered on the number of mistakes being made by this year’s Gopher squad. Missed passes, missed tackles, missed blocks, blown assignments and other such correctable errors that are the result of having a team with so many new contributors.
Athan Kaliakmanis is a talented quarterback who has struggled at times this season, but it should be noted that this is his first season as QB1 and there is going to be a learning curve for the redshirt sophomore. This learning curve applies to the interior of the OL, Maverick Baranowski, Tre’Von Jones, Jack Henderson, Darius Green, etc. These are talented kids. But the combination of not having enough guys to cover up for their potential mistakes and perhaps not being put in the right place to succeed (at the right time) is rearing its head.
The good news here is that the 2024 Gophers are returning a lot. In this year’s ranking of teams returning production (note, it is production, not just starters), the Gophers rank 19th nationally.
- Overall: 71% returning production (19th)
- Offense: 68% (45th)
- Defense: 74% (22nd)
On offense they are returning 4/5 of their offensive line, the team’s #1 WR, the #1 RB (who missed a significant portion of the season) and we’d like to think that the team upgraded at quarterback.
Significant Losses
Some lost production is more significant than others. The biggest losses for the program this offseason were in the secondary. Tyler Nubin was one of the best safeties in the country and transfer corner Tre’Von Jones ended up being a very productive and valuable member of last year’s secondary. These are two of the biggest holes from last year, and we are not sure they will be adequately filled.
The team is also going to have to replace about a third of the team’s rushing and receiving from last year. But if we are going down the path of recognizing that some lost production is worse than other lost production, these yards may not be terribly significant. Or perhaps more easily replaced.
The losses of Zach Evans, Bryce Williams and Sean Tyler are not yards that going to be replaced. A healthy Darius Taylor and the incoming transfers should be able to cover those lost yards.
A similar story is told for the receiving yards lost. Corey Crooms Jr and Brevyn Spann-Ford accounted for 615 of the team’s 1,864 yards through the air. But they had only 2 touchdowns and again, those yards should not be difficult to replace.
Significant Production Returning
The Gophers are returning significant production along both of their lines. On offense, they are returning 4/5 of their starters with the only loss being Nathan Boe at center. Boe was a 6th year senior who started every game last year, replacing John Michael Schmitz who moved on to the NFL after the 2022 season. But the 4 returning starters, plus the talented, young Greg Johnson should make for one of the better offensive lines in the Big Ten.
Defensively they are returning most of their defensive line rotation including 3 of the 4 starters. Most notably Jay Joyner is back after 7.5 sacks last year and Danny Striggow returns after his 6-sack season along with starters Deven Eastern and Jalen Logan-Redding.
It should also be noted that Jack Henderson, the team’s leading tackler last season and your early-down-nickel back is returning.
Back on offense, the team is returning their #1 receiver, Daniel Jackson, and their #1 running back, Taylor. Each could very easily be on the All-Big Ten team at the end of the season. The guys atop of the food chain are going to be
Sneaky Upgrades
Whether it be due to the portal or because of key contributors coming into the season fully healthy, are there any areas where we can get a boost in production?
I’ll start at quarterback and suggest that despite losing the young and talented Kaliakmanis under center, the Gophers may see a significant boost in production at quarterback. The transfer portal has brought Max Brosmer to Minnesota. The Gopher offense is moving from an athletic quarterback to one who is an experienced and accurate passer, presumably more suited to what they want to run. I don’t expect that Brosmer will throw for 3,000 yards and the weight of the offense will be on his shoulders. But I do expect he will have a higher completion % and fewer interceptions, leading drives that result in an increase in points scored.
The other area that could see a sneaky increase in production is at linebacker where the Gophers return two guys who could have fantastic seasons. In 2022 Cody Lindenberg was 2nd on the team in tackles and had a strong sophomore season. But in 2023 he was injured for most of the season, playing in just the final 3 regular season games plus the bowl game. Returning a healthy Lindenberg may end up being a huge boost to the defense. But there’s also Maverick Baranowski, last year’s redshirt freshman who was thrust into significant playing time and had to learn on the fly. He also ended up missing some games due to injury, but his return after a year of learning on the job could also result in an elite season.
The nature of college football is that your roster is going to turnover, some years more than others. But you will never have a player for more than 4 or 5 seasons and you have to build depth so that you can sustain success as you lose players. The best programs reload with elite talent and can sustain success. But even at the highest levels of the sport, some years are better than others. Michigan and Ohio State are perfect examples where the Wolverines returned a LOT heading into last season (5th nationally with 81% returning) while Ohio State was experiencing a bigger drop in returning production (48th, 67%).
Minnesota is a developmental program and years with a significant loss of production are going to show up on the field. But this year could be interesting. Will it translate to more wins? Tough to say, the schedule isn’t exactly easy. But it might!