What will it take for the Gopher offense to be more balanced with an adequate passing game?
The Gopher football offense has an identity. There is zero doubt that this is a rushing offense, typically running inside-zone, that uses the ground game to set up a quick passing game to move the ball down the field.
We have seven seasons with PJ Fleck leading this program and his teams have finished among the top 4 rushing teams in the Big Ten in 4 of those seasons. They average 184 yards per game over his tenure. They have a rushing attack that is very good, they execute it well and are able to use this as a recruiting tool to bring in linemen and quality running backs.
The problem is the passing game. In those seven seasons, the passing game has finished 10th or worse in the Big Ten (out of 14) in five seasons. Fleck’s first season with Minnesota and last season were the two worst, not coincidentally the only two seasons when Tanner Morgan was not under center.
- 2017 – 126.1 yards per game (13th in Big Ten)
- 2018 – 208.8 (10th)
- 2019 – 253.3 (4th)
- 2020 – 199.1 (8th)
- 2021 – 162 (12th)
- 2022 – 182.2 (11th)
- 2023 – 143.4 (10th)
The question for the 2024 season is, can the Gopher passing game improve enough to have a balanced offense that can score more points? I am going to suggest that there are three key areas that need to be addressed for the passing game to improve. Talent, execution and philosophy; with some of those being more important than others.
PHILOSOPHY
So much of the offseason conversation centers around questioning if PJ Fleck is capable of changing his offensive philosophy. And I think there are two responses to this question.
First of all, no. He isn’t going to change his offensive philosophy.
And secondly, I don’t know that he needs to.
This isn’t because Fleck is stubborn and unwilling to change (also, he is stubborn and might be unwilling to change), it is because his offensive philosophy fits within his overall strategy of how he wants to construct his teams to win games. And it has been shown to be effective. It isn’t perfect, it isn’t a guarantee, but it is an effective way to win games at Minnesota.
In college football, there are dozens of various offensive systems and philosophies. All of them are capable of working, there is no magic bullet. And every program has a unique set of circumstances that you have to navigate to produce a winning program.
Some schools can simply recruit the best talent, they can run offensive systems that rely on winning the 1 on 1 battles that they feel they’ll win more often than not based on talent alone. Schools that are more middling, like Minnesota, you have to define a system that you recruit specific talent to and then you teach it.
Iowa does it. Wisconsin does it. Purdue has done it. Glen Mason did it well (on one side of the ball) when he was at Minnesota. You have a system that you can recruit to, and you teach it, and you execute it. And over time you hope to be successful enough that you can begin to attract more talent.
His offensive philosophy is not allergic to passing the ball, it is using the run to set up a quick-passing game that requires accurate passing in the short to medium range. When he had talented receivers along with an accurate quarterback, his passing offense was very good. When he didn’t have receivers who can get open and a quarterback who can put the ball in the right place, he had no choice but to lean heavily on what was an elite rushing attack.
There is no shame in leaning on your greatest strengths.
TALENT
Which leads to the next point. Talent matters.
Notice that the two worst passing seasons we have had under PJ Fleck were his first season and last season.
As you may recall, the 2017 quarterbacks were Connor Rhoda and Demry Croft. Obviously, the 2023 QB was Athan Kaliakmanis. And in between was Tanner Morgan. Which of these signal-callers was more capable of hitting open receivers than the others? He’s no JJ McCarthy, but Morgan was as polished of a quarterback as we have seen at Minnesota in a very long time.
And even Morgan’s numbers fluctuated season over season. His best season was when he had 2 NFL-caliber receivers to throw to. He struggled in his last two seasons when his targets were injured (Chris Autman-Bell), young (Daniel Jackson) or just mediocre (Michael Brown-Stephens and Dylan Wright).
It all works together and talent ALWAYS matters.
EXECUTION
And lastly, it all comes together. The coaching staff and the talent have to be working together.
Missing open receivers on short or medium passes cannot happen. Receivers running into the same area during key plays is also unacceptable.
It all works together.
So from a philosophy standpoint, the staff has to be better at teaching their receiver route-trees and decision making. You have to give your players an opportunity to succeed. Then they need to execute.
We are a rushing team and we have talent along the offensive line and in the backfield to be a good rushing team. This is what we do well. The ground game needs to be used to set up the passing game. Well-timed play-action calls or quick passes to keep the defense honest, makes the engine run smooth. Greg Harbaugh’s play-calling is critical here.
The ultimate question is, do they have all of the necessary components to improve the arial portion of their offense?
I do believe that Brosmer is going to be an improvement in the passing game. He should be more accurate than what we saw under center last season and he has a lot of experience reading defenses and making the right decision.
I also believe that the receivers will be slightly improved. Daniel Jackson coming back was one of the biggest names that we kept from the transfer portal. Elijah Spencer should be slightly improved and LeMeke Brockington was coming on strong before getting injured last year. Those 3, along with some good potential out of the transfers, should give a solid group of targets for Brosmer.
This means the staff and players need to improve their execution & strategy.
The question is not, “Will PJ Fleck change his philosophy?” The question is, “Can they put it all together?”