Back home, can the Gophers upset Illinois?
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The Barn
5:00 PM
BTN
Illinois
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 15-8 (7-6)
KenPom Rank: 17
This Illini team started 4-1 in the Big Ten but have gone just 3-5 since. Their Big Ten metrics have been elite on defense, it is the offensive end where they are struggling.
KEYS TO A GOPHER WIN
Rebounding is everything today – This is not a strength for Minnesota and it is a something that where the Illini are excelling. In Big Ten play the Illini are 2nd in the league in offensive rebounding % and 1st in defensive. They are top 20 nationaly in both while Minnesota ranks outside of the top 200.
Win our matchups – I’m not feeling overly confident about some of the matchups, especially in the frontcourt. Of our starters, I don’t love the matchup with Tomislav Ivisic, their 7’1” center who isn’t afraid to shoot from behind the arc. And I’m not excited about whoever will be defending the stud freshman, Kasparas Jakucionis. Maybe Garcia moves over to Jakucionis but then that leaves Morez Johnson Jr. On the flip side, I like Garcia on the offensive end.
Make Threes! – Illinois is 18th in the conference in 3point %. While not exactly a strength of ours, there are games when we are hitting. Being home helps, maybe Illinois struggles in the Barn from deep and this becomes a distinct advantage for the Gophers tonight.
PREDICTION
Two teams who are really not very good offensively but are playing wildly different styles of basketball. The 4th “key” would really be, whoever controls pace will win. Minnesota ranks nearly dead last in the country in tempo (357th) while Illinois is 10th, averaginga bout 10 moer possessions per game. Dictating pace will be huge.
Illinois is frankly a better team and “should” win this one, even on the road. If Minnesota gets hot from three and if they manage to not get killed on the glass, this could be interesting. But I think both would have to happen, and I’m not optimistic.
Garcia has another 20-point game, Jakucionis might have 30 and Illinois gets back on track.
Minnesota – 69
Illinois – 77