Bring on the Spartans, this Gopher team his hot!
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East Lansing
7:00 PM
Peacock
Michigan St
Maybe I should temper my enthusiasm here as the Gophers attempt to get their 4th win in a row. But they are on the road to face the Big Ten’s best team who happens to have a 12-game winning streak.
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 17-2 (8-0)
KenPom Rank: 22
Can the Gophers stay hot and take down the hottest team in the Big Ten?
This is the first Big Ten opponent that we will see for the second time this season after Minnesota hosted the Spartans at the Barn in December. In that game, Michigan State had seven players score in the 8-12 range and they cruised to a 90-72 win.
KEYS TO A GOPHER WIN
Control Pace – This seems to be the biggest key to Minnesota’s recent 3-game stretch and I see no reason it won’t be again tonight. Michigan State isn’t exactly an “up-tempo” team, but they will steal baskets by beating you back when you aren’t paying attention. Minnesota cannot afford to give up easy baskets in transition, or transition after a made basket.
Don’t Foul – The Spartans were 21/26 from the free throw line when the visited the Barn. They rank 39th nationally in free throw rate (how often do they get to the line compared to field goals attempted) and they are 3rd in FT%. So they get there a lot and they make them A LOT. Minnesota will not win if this becomes a free throw battle.
Box OUT! – In the previous meeting, they recouped over 41% of their own misses and for the season they rank 18th in offensive rebounding percent. Minnesota has been much improved in their defensive rebounding since Christmas, but that will be tested tonight!
PREDICTION
Of Minnesota’s remaining 12 games, this is the least likely to be a win according to KenPom projections. And once again, I just cannot convince myself that this is going to be another win.
Are the Spartans due to drop a Big Ten game? Sure.
Are they looking ahead to their LA trip to face USC and UCLA? Maybe.
Are they good enough to take care of Minnesota, even if they aren’t 100% focused? Probably.
Michigan State cruises to a win but Minnesota gets back to their winning ways soon. There’s no shame in losing to #7 MSU on the road.
Minnesota – 68
Michigan State – 81