The second-seeded Minnesota Lynx will begin their journey towards a WNBA title when they face the seventh-seeded Phoenix Mercury in the best-of-three opening round of the playoffs.
With the 40-game regular season now behind us, it’s officially the most exciting time of the year in the WNBA. The WNBA Playoffs tip off this weekend with eight teams left standing in pursuit of a league title in October.
After a first-round exit in the postseason in 2023, a series against the Connecticut Sun that went the full three games, the Minnesota Lynx return to the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the WNBA and looking to be a team that can make a serious run at a league crown.
With a record of 30-10 obtained during the regular season, the Lynx earned themselves the second seed in the playoffs, their highest seed since finishing atop the standings in 2017 (a year that ended pretty decent). The team that will have the task of taking down Minnesota is the seventh-seeded Phoenix Mercury, who concluded the regular season 19-22 overall.
During the regular season, the Lynx and Mercury squared off four times, with Minnesota owning that series 3-1. The Lynx won 95-71 in Minneapolis on May 31, 73-60 in Minneapolis on June 22 and 89-76 in Phoenix on Aug. 28. The Mercury won their lone game 81-80 on June 7 off a Kahleah Copper game-winning three pointer .
The opening-round series is a best-of-three battle and will tip off Sunday at Target Center. Games 1 and 2 will be in Minneapolis, while a potential winner-take-all Game 3 would shift locations to Phoenix.
Here’s the full schedule and broadcast information:
- Game 1: Sunday, Sept. 22 — 4PM CT at Target Center (ESPN)
- Game 2: Wednesday, Sept. 25 — 8:30PM CT at Target Center (ESPN)
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Game 3: Friday, Sept. 27 — TBD at at Footprint Center (ESPN2)*
*If necessary
Before the games begin, here’s a preview of the series, including what the regular season matchups told us, a key matchup to keep an eye on, some x-factors, a series prediction and more.
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How Did We Get Here?
The season has been the opposite for both squads, with Minnesota jumping out quick out of the gate while Phoenix had a bit of an up-and-down regular season.
After a strong start to the season, the Lynx enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the WNBA that is playing their best basketball at the right time. With an offense that ranked fourth in the league and a defense that ranked second, Minnesota has shown the ability to take down any team on any given night and has turned its game up a notch since the Olympic Break, ending the year 13-2 after the break. Their depth is impressive. It’s hard to see the Lynx slowing down at the start of the postseason.
The Mercury, on the other hand, got off to a slow start to the regular season, but managed to turn things around and ensure they have a spot in the postseason. Phoenix finished the year in the bottom half of both offensive and defensive statistics, ranking eighth in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating. To add to the skepticism, the Mercury were without star guard Kahleah Copper for a few games at the end of the regular season and enter the playoffs 3-7 over their last 10 games.
What Did Regular Season Tell Us?
In the four matchups between the two teams this season, Minnesota handled its battle against Phoenix with relative ease. And in nearly all of those games, the Lynx did what they did best — defend, distribute and hit shots from deep.
As you can see in the matchups leading up to the postseason, the Lynx overpowered the Mercury offensively via their distribution advantage as well as finding success shooting the ball both from the field and from three.
On the other end of the court, Minnesota also held Phoenix in check not only from the field but also from deep, also forcing the Mercury into nearly 16 turnovers per contest. As we’ve seen with other games this year, a mark to watch for the Lynx is that 40% field goal mark. When they are able to hold teams below that, like they have with the Mercury, Minnesota almost always comes out on top in those contests.
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Key Matchup to Watch
The likes of Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride for Minnesota and Diana Taurasi, Kahleah Copper (if healthy) and Brittney Griner for Phoenix will all be names to watch, but the matchup that intrigues us the most is the battle between McBride and Taurasi, two veteran sharpshooters.
Both McBride and Taurasi can take a game over at any moment, notably with their ability to light games up from field and boost their respective teams offensively. However, they are also used a decent amount, with McBride recording a 20.8% usage percentage and Taurasi earning a 24.8% usage percentage in the four games against each other.
As far as which player has had the edge thus far, McBride claims that crown. In four games against Phoenix, McBride has averaged 14.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.0 steals while shooting 41.5% from the field and 43.8% from deep to go along with a win shares total of 5.2. Taurasi, on the other hand, has averaged 12.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.0 steals over four games against Minnesota, shooting 34% from the field along with a win shares of 2.1.
This matchup in particular could be interesting in this opening round series because both squads will likely need a supporting player such as these two to step up.
Photo by Chris Marion/NBAE via Getty Images
X-Factors
It’s hard to come down to just one x-factor in this series for the Lynx, so we’re going with two. Two of the biggest x-factors that will likely play a large factor in this opening-round series and any games that follow are Bridget Carleton and the Lynx depth.
Starting with Carleton, she is having her best season as a professional, and that is in part due to not only her extended playing time in the starting lineup, but her stepping up and taking advantage of every opportunity thrown her way for the Lynx. Carleton enters the postseason after averaging 11.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.3 steals while shooting 45.2% from the field and 46.7% (!!) from deep over her last 10 games. Not only is she playing incredibly well for Minnesota, but Carleton has stepped up big and will be relied upon to do so once again in the first round of the playoffs.
Worth noting is that Carleton was just awarded the Sylvia Fowles Altruism Award. After Collier won the inaugural award last season, Carleton’s impact both on and off the court was deservedly recognized. This award is given to the player who “best embodies the altruistic traits of kindness, selflessness and overall regard for the well-being of others throughout the community.”
so much love for BC.
she’s this year’s Sylvia Fowles Altruism Award winner. pic.twitter.com/PqlQjzoncz
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) September 19, 2024
As for the Lynx depth, that is something that has come into play often in the regular season and will become even more important in the postseason. Minnesota’s second unit averaged 19.3 points per game over the course of the regular season, the fourth-best mark in the WNBA. That is a testament to the level of talent the Lynx have coming off the bench, especially the likes of Dorka Juhász, Cecelia Zandalasini, Myshia Hines-Allen, Natisha Hiedeman, and others. Even players like Olivia Époupa, who re-signed with the Lynx before the regular season concluded, could have an impact at points in the playoffs.
The play of Collier and the rest of the Lynx starting lineup will obviously be important, but the supporting cast that surrounds could be what makes or breaks this team in the postseason.
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Series Prediction
Let’s just cut right to the chase — This Minnesota Lynx team is just too good and is playing too well to not make it out of the first round of the playoffs.
It’s no knock on Phoenix and what it was able to accomplish to reach the postseason in 2024, but the Mercury don’t have the firepower, depth and skill on both ends of the court to be able to pull off an opening-round upset.
Minnesota will open the series up at home over the first two games, a location it has been very successful at this season while carrying a record of 16-4 in front of the Target Center crowd. That is tied for the best home record in the league.
The Lynx will take care of business in Game 1 behind their loyal fan base, and will be able to complete the two-game sweep in Game 2 to avoid the series shifting to Phoenix for a series-deciding Game 3.
Prediction: Minnesota wins series 2-0