After sweeping the opening round, the second-seeded Minnesota Lynx begin a best-of-five battle against the third-seeded Connecticut Sun in the semifinal round and a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line.
One week into the WNBA Playoffs, we have now narrowed the number of teams from eight to four left fighting for a league title.
With No. 1 New York Liberty and No. 4 Las Vegas Aces filling out the other half of the postseason bracket, the second-seeded Minnesota Lynx will battle the third-seeded Connecticut Sun in the best-of-five semifinals round with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line.
During the regular season, the Lynx and Sun faced off three times, with Connecticut holding a 2-1 advantage. The Sun won a controversial 83-82 overtime game in Connecticut on May 23, taking the second game of the season series 78-73 on July 4 in Minneapolis. The Lynx won the most recent matchup, a 78-76 victory on Sept. 17 in Connecticut that clinched the second seed for Minnesota.
Despite falling in the season series against Connecticut, Minnesota owns homecourt advantage in this series due to finishing ahead of the Sun in the WNBA standings. That means Minnesota will host Games 1 and 2, with the series shifting to Connecticut for Games 3 and 4 before a potential return to Minneapolis for a winner-take-all Game 5.
Here’s the full schedule and broadcast information for the series
- Game 1: Sunday, Sept. 29 — 7:30PM CT at Target Center (ESPN)
- Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 1 — TBD at Target Center (TBD)
- Game 3: Friday, Oct. 4 — 7:30PM CT at Mohegan Sun Arena (ESPN2)
- Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 6 — TBD at Mohegan Sun Arena (TBD)*
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Game 5: Tuesday, Oct. 8 — TBD at Target Center (ESPN2)*
*If necessary
Before the series tips off, we preview the battle ahead, including how each team got to this point, their matchups during the regular season, key matchups to watch for, x-factors, a series prediction and more.
How Did We Get Here?
Both claiming a top three seed in the postseason, Minnesota and Connecticut each used homecourt advantage to their favor in the best-of-three first round to come away with 2-0 series sweeps.
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The Lynx hosted the seventh-seeded Phoenix Mercury, putting their offense on display with a 102-95 win in Game 1 and a 101-88 victory in Game 2 to complete the sweep. In that series, Napheesa Collier put together a historic performance, averaging 40.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.5 blocks over two games while tying a WNBA playoff record with 42 points in Game 2 on Wednesday.
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The Sun welcomed the sixth-seeded Indiana Fever, taking care of business in Game 1 with a 93-69 blowout win while following that up with a close 87-81 victory to complete the sweep and end Indiana’s season. Marina Mabrey has led the way so far this postseason for Connecticut, averaging a team-best 22 points per game thus far. DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas have done what they’ve done all season long, Bonner providing a lift offensively and Thomas threatening with a triple-double on a nightly basis.
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What Did Regular Season Tell Us?
In the three-game season series against each other, Connecticut held the advantage while winning two of the three games. Minnesota, however, won the most recent game on the road in Connecticut.
As you can see, these teams were very evenly matched throughout the regular season, another reason why we should see this series go back-and-forth early on. With the three games being decided by an average of 1.3 points, Minnesota held a slight advantage shooting the ball and distributing it, while Connecticut took an edge on the boards and from three.
If we see anything similar to what we witnessed during the regular season between the Lynx and Sun, this semifinals series is about to be really fun.
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Key Matchup to Watch
There are a lot of intriguing matchups in this series, similar to what we saw unfold in the regular season, but one that will be incredibly entertaining is the battle between Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier and Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas. These two players are having outstanding postseasons thus far, doing a little bit of everything for their respective teams. Not only just with their scoring abilities, but on the boards, distributing the ball and being solid defenders.
When it comes to Collier, everyone knows the type of postseason she has had — a historic one. The 2024 MVP runner-up averaged 40.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.5 blocks over two games in the first round, shooting 64.1% from the field and 62.5% from three.
Thomas, on the other hand, has continued to be a triple-double threat on a nightly basis, doing so over the start of the playoffs while averaging 15.5 points, 13.0 assists and 7.5 rebounds over the two first-round contests against Indiana. Thomas recorded three triple-doubles during the regular season and already has one in the playoffs.
Against each other in 2024, Collier and Thomas both put up solid numbers in the three contests this summer. Collier held the edge scoring-wise, averaging 21.7 points to go along with 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 steals, 2.7 blocks and 2.3 assists per game. Thomas put together a trio of all-around performances for the Sun, averaging 16.3 points, 9.7 assists, 8.3 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game.
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X-Factors
When taking a deeper dive at this series and what could be the biggest x-factors, this series could come down to which team is better defensively and which team can distribute better than the other.
Starting with defense, these two teams feature two of the best defensive groups in the league, with Connecticut ranking atop the league in defensive rating (94.1) and Minnesota ending right behind in second (94.8). In the postseason thus far, the Sun have been a bit better on that end of the court, ranking second among playoff teams in defensive rating (94.3) while the Lynx rank fifth among postseason squads (113.7).
As far as distributing goes for each team, Minnesota has been outstanding in this area all season and has done so again in the postseason. The Lynx carried a WNBA-best 20.4 assist ratio during the regular season and have led all playoff teams in that category as well (24.2) behind a total of 58 assists as a team in the first round. The Sun ranked seventh in the WNAB in assist ratio during the regular season (18.1), but have improved so far this postseason while ranking second behind Minnesota with a ratio of 22.1.
Whoever is able to control the other defensively and also be able to continue to move the ball well will likely come out on top in this series.
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Series Prediction
Like we saw during the regular season, this semifinals matchup will likely be as evenly matched and a back-and-forth battle throughout the best-of-five series. It will be fun to see two talented teams — on both ends of the court — battle it out while being led by two incredibly intelligent head coaches in Minnesota’s Cheryl Reeve and Connecticut’s Stephanie White.
However, homecourt advantage could come into play as the two teams move their chess pieces throughout the series, and that lands in favor of the Lynx. Each team is capable of stealing a game on the road, which will set up a winner-take-all Game 5 at Target Center on Oct. 8.
In the end, Minnesota will continue to play its best basketball of the season and will ride this hot stretch to a series win in five games while returning to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2017 — a year that ended pretty decent for the Lynx.
Prediction: Minnesota wins series 3-2