One of the best parts of watching a game at the Target Center in person is the ovation for Naz Reid when he first checks into the game.
The crowd erupts as the PA announcer bellows Naz Reid; the crowd erupts whenever they hear Naz Reid coming over the sound system. Naz Reid, for three, causes the crowd to erupt. Naz Reid shooting two free throws brings cheers. Rudy Gobert checking in for Naz Reid, you guessed it — a showering of cheers.
This season has been no different. Fan support for Reid has been as strong as ever. However, something just seems off.
He missed the last-second shot to win the game against the Boston Celtics, which the NBA nullified as he didn’t get it off in time. Again, the shot seemed off, especially given that Reid has hit game-winners. His timing, the mojo around it, and the confidence fans had that it would go in all seemed off, leading to a deep dive into why Reid has seemed different offensively this season.
It can’t be just me who feels he’s off offensively. However, statistically, it would appear that I’m wrong. Reid’s shooting splits are nearly identical to last season’s sixth man of the year winning campaign. He’s shooting 49.1% from the field, 39.8% from distance and 90.6%.
Compared to 47.7%/41.4%/73.6% last season, Reid’s increase in efficiency has resulted in him scoring 0.3 more points per game this year. He’s only shooting 0.4 fewer shots per game this season, playing 0.4 more minutes per game. Reid’s assists have improved by 0.3 per game, while he has decreased his turnovers by 0.2.
Reid’s advanced stats paint the same picture. His offensive rating has improved this year, as have his assist percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, true shooting percentage, and effective field goal percentages.
His ranges tell the same story. Ried is shooting better than last year from every distance on the floor except from 25 to 29 feet, where he is only shooting 3.7% worse. Looking at closest defender statistics, Reid is making roughly the same percentage of open shots.
The only statistic that shows any statistical drop-off is his percentage from the right corner three-point shots, which has dropped from 41.1% last season to 27.3% this year. The 13.8% drop sounds significant, but Reid has only shot 11 three-point shots from this location this season. That means the drop accounts for one extra missed shot over the first 16 games.
Reid performs nearly identical statistically to his 2023-24 numbers, regardless of whether he’s at home or away. His numbers are not significantly different from last season in wins or losses, either. Reid’s field goal percentages in all three of four situations were better this season than last. His three-point percentage was also similar in all instances.
Home
- 2023-24: FG%-50.4%, 3pt%-42.2%
- 2024-25: FG%-55.7%, 3pt%-45.7%
Away
- 2023-24: FG%-45.2%, 3pt%-40.6%
- 2024-25: FG%-44.0%, 3pt%-35.4%
Wins
- 2023-24: FG%-50.0%, 3pt%-43.8%
- 2024-25: FG%-55.0%,3pt%- 43.2%
Losses
- 2023-24: FG%-42.9%, 3pt%-36.6%
- 2024-25: FG%-43.2%, 3pt%- 37.0%
The numerous dead ends prompted me to look into individual box scores and discover why Reid’s play seems different.
There, we can find notable differences from last season to this season. The difference is consistency. Diving into the numbers of Minnesota’s 16 games, Reid has shot below 38.0% in four, three of which he shot below 30.0%. He has also shot above 58.0% six times. Over the past six games, he’s shot 6 of 27 from three-point range while also enjoying a five-game stretch from November 4 to 12, where he shot 16 for 30. Reid has had five games with no turnovers and five with two or more turnovers, including one five-turnover game.
He seems to be living this season primarily on the extremes. Reid has seemingly been in a three-point shooting slump for the past five games. However, his hot streak earlier in the year keeps his percentages high. His single-game plus-minus further highlights this. He has had 13 of 16 games where he has logged either a +10 or more rating or a -10 or more rating. The extremes in rating, coupled with the streaks in his shooting and ball security, would appear to be the culprit for why he seems off this season.
That’s especially true when looking at his box scores from last year. Keep in mind his games of either being plus or minus ten. This season, it happened in 81.25% of the games. Last year, he had only 22 games of plus or minus ten out of the 81 games he played, or 27.16%.
Reid’s shooting percentages show a similar difference. He has shot below 38.0% in four games and above 58.0% in six. That’s 62.50% of the games he’s shooting below average or above average. Compared to last season, he did this 40 times, which amounts to 49.38% of his games over the entire season.
The yin and yang of his offense and his defensive struggles this season, Reid is posting the second-worst defensive rating of his career, have left a conflicting impression. If you catch him on the right night, he is superb offensively. Likewise, on the wrong night, he appears to be struggling this season.
Minnesota has an 8-8 record. Like Reid, on certain nights, the Wolves can beat any team. On others, they also look like any team can beat them. The Timberwolves and Reid will need to find consistency sooner rather than later if they hope to make another deep run in the playoffs.